Joe DiCarlo 
Well, the 2024 Wild Card Weekend is in the books, and what a thriller! It was loaded with upsets, where we witnessed Jordan Love stroll into AT&T Stadium like he owned the Cowboys. The rookie quarterback CJ Stroud shredded the Browns in another big upset, as Joe Flacco watched from the sidelines after throwing back-to-back pick sixes.
The number one seeds will now enter the mix, as we are left with eight teams to slug it out this weekend. So we have four games in total, two on Saturday and two on Sunday, all with some decent totals. Again, let’s keep it simple for DFS, but get different in a few spots for some separation. Get creative with your builds, but stay on track, and let’s get across those pay lines.
Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now on to the Divisional Breakdown, which is hands down the best slate of NFL DFS!
Saturday Slate 1/20/24
Texans @ Ravens (-9.5) (U/O 43.5)
The Houston Texans led by rookie quarterback CJ Stroud enter the Divisional Round as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and they’ll need every ounce of their talent to beat Baltimore. The Ravens have earned the one seed and will host the contest, not only has Lamar Jackson lit up the scoreboard with his offense, but their defense has been tremendous. Baltimore has held its opponents to just under 16 points per game on the year, so we’ll see what Stroud has left up his sleeve come Saturday afternoon.
The spread indicates Houston will be playing from behind all game, so we’ll be interested in the Texan pass catchers for DFS. Nico Collins has been the only game in town for Houston. Since Week 18, he’s caught 15 receptions for 191 yards and two touchdowns, solidifying himself as Stroud’s go-to guy when everything is at stake. He’s got a tough matchup, so consider some low ownership to go his way this weekend. But Collins can’t do it alone if the Texans want to move the football, as Baltimore will prepare for him. Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, III, and Devin Singletary will all need to contribute if Houston is going to stay in the game and take some pressure away from Nico.
As for Baltimore, we all should know by now this team is built around Jackson. The 2019 league MVP can burn defenses with his legs or through the air, especially this season with the added weapons of rookie Zay Flowers and tight end Isaiah Likely. Houston has been abused by opposing tight ends this season (29th in DVOA), so in the news of Mark Andrews being ruled out, Likely will be popular on Saturday. But hold the phone. Running back Dalvin Cook has been elevated from their practice squad and I would consider for DFS if active, solely on the fact of ownership reasons. Cooks‘ salary has dwindled from the lack of being on the field this season, so if he hits paydirt on Saturday and he’s in your lineup, kudos to you.
Packers @ Niners (-9.5) (O/U 50.5)
Saturday Night’s game has the highest total on the slate, and for all the right reasons featuring the most explosive offense in football with the Forty Niners. They’ll face off against Green Bay, a team on cloud nine playing with house money after embarrassing the Cowboys on the road in their Wild Card Round. Green Bay is a big dog in this contest, hopefully, this game does not get out of hand and Jordan Love can keep up with Brock Purdy on Saturday Night.
The Packers leaned heavily on running back Aaron Jones to defeat the Cowboys last week, and we all saw how that turned out… six yards per carry for 118 and three touchdowns. Jones’s success on the ground opened up the door for Love’s passing game, but not so fast. The Niners are not a team you can run on, with household names of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner lurking on the field. The Packers’ receiving core has also been an enigma all year long, as Love shows no discrimination when spreading the football around. It’s been the Jayden Reed show until he laid an egg on managers against Dallas, as Romeo Doubs became the go-to guy scoring 30 DK FPTS. They’re all dart throws unless you have Matt La Fleur’s playbook, so keep that in mind if you decide to take a shot on any Packers receivers.
The Niners are back to full strength. Fresh off a playoff bye and a Week 18 that allowed some rest to their key players, the only thing standing in their way of a win is a little rust. Christian McCaffrey has a matchup of a lifetime and will be chalk all over every slate this weekend. Green Bay has allowed close to 130 rushing yards per game with 14 touchdowns by opposing running backs this season. If the Packers decide to stack the box, it’ll be a walk in the park for Brock Purdy to hit receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, as well as tight end George Kittle. All five will see the highest ownership on the slate as it sits with the highest point total this weekend. Although the field may sway more toward the less expensive Niners, making Deebo Samuel may be the pivot to separation from Kittle and Aiyuk managers.
Sunday Slate 1/21/24
Bucs @ Lions (-6.5) (O/U 48.5)
As we enter day two of the Divisional Round, we get another dose of Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff. Both will have the adrenaline flowing through their veins as Mayfield scored 30 fantasy points in a victory over the defending NFC Champion Eagles and Goff in a decisive playoff win against his former team the LA Rams. Sitting with a total close to 50, we should see plenty of points scored especially through the air, as both teams have defended well against the run all season.
We did not see that big game we all expected from Mike Evans in that Phila game last week, but have some faith as he could get there this weekend. The targets were there last week, as a 60-yard pass slipped through his fingertips that could’ve paid off big dividends if he caught it. Fellow teammates Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer, and especially tight end Cade Otton were also heavily involved last week as well, all scoring double-digit fantasy points in Wild Card Weekend. Every pass catcher is in play for Tampa against Detroit’s 30th-ranked secondary.
Detroit will benefit as well from a dumpster fire pass cover system in the Bucs. Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean will struggle to contain Amon-Ra St. Brown, but if he does get bracketed, expect a big play from Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds. Tight end rookie phenom Sam La Porta is two weeks removed from his Week 18 knee injury too, so we can anticipate an uptick in routes and opportunities. Even though the road passed Tampa is through the air, Head Coach Dan Campbell will heavily enforce his running back duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but at their prices, it would be pretty risky. I’d rather take a shot on Rachaad White if you wish to go running back in this game, as he owns the entire backfield for the Bucs.
Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5) (O/U 45)
And now, the main event. The Bills will host the Chiefs in a rematch of their 2022 AFC Divisional Round thriller that ended in a walk-off touchdown by Travis Kelce in overtime. A lot has changed for both teams since then, as Kelce has lost a step, the Chiefs have nobody else to catch the football other than Rashee Rice, and Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs’ bromance has been put on hold. But I’m not worried about a dull contest here, as the defending Super Bowl Champs will not go down easy, and now that the Bills have home-field, the result may be different in 2024.
Mahomes has not been himself even though the Chiefs have made it this far into the playoffs. He hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points on DraftKings since Week 15 and has only scored 30 FPTS. only once this season (Week 7 against the Chargers). The Chiefs have leaned heavily on running back Isaiah Pacheco and receiver Rashee Rice on their road to success, a duo that has surpassed the once-dominant Travis Kelce. Pacheco will continue to see 20-plus carries and Rice will be Mahomes‘ first option when he drops back to pass (30 targets in his last three games).
If Buffalo wants its revenge, it will have to be done on the offensive side of the ball, as their defense has piled up on the injury report. Head Coach Sean McDermott has already ruled out Taylor Rapp, Baylon Spector, and Christian Benford, with Terrel Bernard, Taron Johnson, and Rasoul Douglas questionable. Gabe Davis has also been ruled out, and Stefon Diggs popped up with a foot injury late in the week. So it will be a ton of Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid for Buffalo as the only healthy options to catch the football. Running back James Cook should see some extra opportunities and will make a nice pivot away from the underpriced, chalky Shakir. Dawson Knox, remember him? He’s in play again with the injury news and a former target machine before Kincaid was drafted. Oh, and by the way, did I forget to mention Josh Allen? He is the highest-priced quarterback on the slate for a reason, that needs no introduction. If you’re in on Buffalo getting a taste of revenge in the playoffs, then a Josh Allen stack is a must-have.
Thanks for reading my 2024 Divisional Round Weekend Breakdown. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
