Joe DiCarlo 
The 2023-24 season has finally come to a close and the cream is beginning to rise to the top as we enter the postseason. All six games of the Wild Card games from Saturday to Monday will be served up on a silver platter for DFS, and it’s not as cut and dry as the regular season. Everyone is priced up, and there’s very little value left, so we’ll need to choose our studs with extra consideration. We have some decent totals, a couple of possible duds due to the forecast, and a potential fireworks display in the Motor City.
As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.
Saturday Slate 1/13/24
Browns @ Texans (+2.5) (U/O 44)
Cleveland will be well rested after a Week 18 bye as the favorite over the Texans in Houston to kick off the postseason—the age-less veteran against the new kid on the block. Joe Flacco has been immortal, defying Father Time since his signing off the couch, throwing for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns in three of his last four games. On the opposite side of the field, CJ Stroud has undoubtedly won the Offensive Rookie of the Year hands down, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 23 touchdowns in his NFL debut season.
Using either QB would be a solid choice, as well as their complimentary weapons for DFS. Flacco has kept it simple since signing with the Browns in Week 12, getting the ball into the hands of his best playmakers David Njoku and Amari Cooper. The trio will face a defense that has been torched in its secondary over the year, ranking 24th in the league. Meanwhile, for Houston, it’s been the Nico Collins show. The second-year wideout out of Michigan went bananas in Week 18, catching all nine of his targets for 195 yards and a touchdown. Although he may see plenty of Denzel Ward coverage, the matchup will be tougher even though Collins is Stroud’s go-to guy.
All of the above should see plenty of ownership, so if you’re looking to pivot from the chalk use Elijah Moore, Xavier Hutchinson at receiver, or Dalton Schultz at tight end. Just a few alternative options for both offenses that see plenty of snaps have been targeted over the season and should separate you from the field. Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, and Devin Singletary will be the feature backs in this game and will provide some salary relief too. I prefer either on the Cleveland side, as they’re priced well below $6K on DraftKings, and can deliver a nice ROI in the Browns’ revitalized offense.
Dolphins @ Chiefs (-3.5) (O/U 44)
Tyreek Hill returns to Arrowhead Stadium for the first time since his trade back in 2022, and there will be a chill in the air Saturday night. Temperatures are expected to be in single digits, which will make catching a football very difficult. Tyreek is matchup and weatherproof in my book, but can Tua get him the football? I’d have no issue not paying up to his high salary in this case. Hill played for Kansas City for six seasons before being traded to Miami, so we can rest assured Coach Andy Reid has reviewed all the footage and formulated a game plan to defend him.
Kansas City’s offense has looked DOA over the season and has become heavily reliant on running back Isaiah Pacheco and rookie wideout Rashee Rice. The New Jersey native Pacheco has averaged well over 20 FPTS per game in his last four contests, with a total of five touchdowns in them. Rice has been a must-start as well, since Week 12 he has become the focal point in the passing game for Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce has been an after-thought, as Rice has averaged eight receptions and 86 yards in his last six games, scoring three times.
With the weather forecast and history of both offenses, I see this becoming a very run-heavy game. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are trending towards playing Saturday, but Tua has looked like a deer in headlights lately. Miami will lean heavily on Mostert and Achane this week, and Pacheco for Kansas City. Miami’s defense is also pretty banged up without Bradley Chubb and now Xavien Howard, so Rice is looking even better.
Tua “Turnthaballova” has given the ball back to the opposing defense four times in his last two games, so we love the Chiefs DST. Pat Mahomes is not an innocent man either, racking up 14 total picks on the year, using Miami for defense makes a lot of sense as well. Both are on the cheaper side for Multi-Game contests in DFS.
Honorable Mention: Justin Watson
Sunday Slate 1/14/24
Steelers @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 35.5)
Another bitterly cold game, this time it’s up in Orchard Park, New York. The AFC East champion Bills will host it, and the momentum should keep moving in the right direction against the TJ Watt-less Steelers’ defense. Unless his teammates can pick up the slack, I don’t see this game even close for Pittsburgh.
Josh Allen is the top QB on the slate, rightfully so. He makes a great GPP option due to his high price tag, as the field will aim to pay down at quarterback for other pay-up slots. However, I did spot some great value at receiver for Buffalo with Khalil Shakir. Only $3,400 on DraftKings with an even larger role on the horizon as Gabe Davis suffered a knee injury last week putting him in jeopardy of sitting out. Shakir caught for over 100 yards in Davis‘ absence Sunday night against Miami.
The Steelers should continue to enforce their run game behind the once again bell cow Najee Harris. Harris carried the rock 26 and 27 times in his last two games, scoring 27 DK Points in each one. He’s still priced in the mid $5k range on DraftKings and mid $6k on FanDuel. It’s a bargain for the amount of volume he is seeing regardless of the game script, as Pittsburgh continues to play “hide the quarterback” with Mason Rudolph.
Update: Gabe Davis is Out; Game is postponed to Monday 4:30PM EST
Packers @ Cowboys (-7.5) (O/U 50.5)
Head Coach Mike McCarthy will host his former team in the Wild Card round Sunday afternoon, in what outlies to be a rodeo in Dallas with the red-hot Cowboys. Owner Jerry Jones has built his team specifically to beat the Niners this season and has all the makings of that possibly coming true. But first, they’ll have to go through Matt LaFleur’s Packers, whose young talent is led by first-year quarterback Jordan Love.
The Cowboys should pulverize the Pack, as Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have put on an award-winning performance late in the year, recapturing the NFC East Division. Dak has solidified Lamb as the number-one receiver in the game this season, connecting on 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 14 total touchdowns. But let’s not focus all our attention on that duo, as running back Tony Pollard has an excellent matchup. The Packers surrender an average of 128 yards per game on the ground, giving DFS managers another solid piece in Dallas.
Green Bay has overachieved all season, especially with Jordan Love. But going up against this petrifying Dallas defense, he’ll be a risky move. His weapons have been a revolving door due to injuries, although his favorite Jayden Reed is back at 100 percent, just go back to last week’s show he put on (4 REC/112 YDS). Reed is priced right as the clear-cut go-to guy in green and gold. Running back Aaron Jones will also be a great option especially if AJ Dillon misses another consecutive game. Jones has averaged close to 20 FPTS and over 20 carries in each of his last three games as the top option at running back.
Rams @ Lions (-3.5) (O/U 51.5)
Matt Stafford returns to the Lion’s Den in Detroit in a Wild Card game destined to see points on the scoreboard. Jared Goff will face his former coach Sean McVay, who shipped him off to Detroit two years ago. Both defenses have been slaughtered in their secondaries this year, so expect a massive amount of ownership from the field in this matchup.
Stafford has leaned heavily on receivers Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua all year, but running back Kyren Williams has been the lockstock piece of the offense for LA. All four are in play, but let’s not forget Demarcus Robinson becoming another reliable weapon for Stafford, scoring double-digit fantasy points in five straight games, catching touchdowns in four of them. Robinson is arguably mispriced on the slate at $3,600 on DraftKings/$6,300 on FanDuel.
Head Coach Dan Campbell may have been too aggressive in Week 18 playing all of his starters, a move that could cost tight end Sam La Porta to miss the game. La Porta has been a solid contributor to the offense, setting records for touchdowns and yardage for tight ends in their rookie seasons. But with having an outside shot to play Sunday, there will be targets up for grabs from Goff. Amon-Ra St. Brown will see some heavier volume, but perhaps the targets can trickle down to running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Receivers Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams could also pick up the slack for La Porta most likely being on the sidelines on Sunday.
Honorable Mention: Brock Wright (If La Porta is out)
Monday Night Showdown 1/9/23
Eagles @ Bucs (+3) (O/U 44)
The finale will leave us in South Florida on Monday night, where the NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Bucs will host a battered Philadelphia Eagles team that barely made it through into the playoffs. Baker Mayfield has been reborn in Tampa, as he posted better numbers than his predecessor Tom Brady from last season, utilizing Tampa’s high-octane passing offense. The Eagles have flamed out after a 10-1 start, finishing the season at 11-6. Not only have the injuries piled up for Philadelphia going into the postseason but so has the questionable play calling with losses to inferior teams in Arizona and New York.
The Eagles have been helpless in its secondary without the likes of Pro Bowlers Darius Slay and blown coverages, but Slay is trending in the right direction after a full practice on Thursday. Nonetheless, the Eagles will still have their hands full trying to contain Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They’re ranked at the bottom of the league at 32nd in pass coverage, allowing quarterbacks like veteran Tyrod Taylor to look 10 years younger on the field in two meetings this season. Running back Rachaad White just missed 1,000 yards for the year with 990, but his action in the passing game (64 REC) makes him viable in a tough matchup against the Eagles front. White is a solid option for GPPs.
Jalen Hurts mentioned to reporters Thursday that he hasn’t thrown a football since fracturing his middle finger on his throwing hand against the Giants last weekend. I smell a rat…why go public with such a negative piece of info? This could be psychological warfare, as Hurts as tough as he is will manage through his injury and could put up some decent stats. He should see very little ownership on Monday Night, and anything is possible when he is on the field. The Bucs are just as bad in their secondary with a DVOA of 24th in the league, so with DeVonta Smith already announcing he will play, let’s hope AJ Brown can also make a run at starting. The Eagles organization has been known to have very little patience when it comes to its coaching staff (Chip Kelly, Andy Reid, and Doug Pederson all fired), current head coach Nick Siriani’s job may be at risk with a first-round exit, so expect the team to rally behind their coach.
Update: AJ Brown is Out
Thanks for reading my 2024 Wild Card Weekend Breakdown. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
