Joe DiCarlo 
How are we already in Week 17? What a season it’s been for DFS, as it begins to come to a close, this slate will have 13 games with 26 teams to choose from. We’ll need to stick to the teams with some incentive, and motivation to play. On to the breakdown, we’ve got plenty to discuss due to the size of this slate, and let’s ring in the New Year with some green screens!
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Sunday Main Slate 12/31/23
Dolphins @ Ravens (-3) (U/O 47)
We may be watching a preview of the AFC Championship game here to kick off the Sunday slate. Miami rode into Baltimore with a long list of players on the injury report, with Jaylen Waddle already ruled out. Tyreek Hill should see even more volume, but the number-one-ranked Ravens’ defense will be ready for him. With Waddle off the field, Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios make nice GPP options as Hill will draw most of the attention.
Although the total is pretty solid, the Baltimore DST($2,800 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) is a great price for a Tua-led offense that has been sketchy against solid opponents. Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Isaiah Likely need no explanation for rostering, as they’ve been consistent pieces of the offense all year.
Update: Raheem Mostert is OUT
Niners @ Commanders (+13) (O/U 49.5)
Frisco smells blood in the water, after an embarrassing loss at home to the Ravens this past Monday night, they’ll look to take their frustration out on the league’s worst-ranked defense in Washington. Everyone in red and gold jerseys will be playable for DFS, but can we trust anyone in a Commanders’ uniform this weekend?
Quarterback Sam Howell has been benched for the rest of the year, allowing the veteran Jacoby Brissett to step in. His price allows a ton of cap space, as two-touchdown underdogs Brissett will have a busy arm come Sunday. He also seemed to favor tight end Logan Thomas last week, as he saw six targets in two-quarters of play, one of them caught on the paydirt.
Update: Brissett is a GTD, Sam Howell may get the start
Raiders @ Colts (-3.5) (O/U 43.5)
Vegas’s defense smothered the Chiefs at Arrowhead last weekend, and they’ll look to continue suffocating opposing offenses, so Minshew better be ready! Modestly priced for DFS on Draftkings ($3,000) and FanDuel ($3,900). If Vegas does get a lead, they’ll sit on the ball with Josh Jacobs, unless he misses his third straight game in which we’ll take Zamir White.
It appears Michael Pittman will make his return from a two-week concussion, giving the Colts a shot in the arm for offense productivity. He’s been a target monster for Gardner Minshew, seeing 45 targets in his last four games. A Severely underpriced WR 1 on DraftKings($7,500) and FanDuel($7,700) in a must-win game for the Colts to stay in playoff contention.
Update: Josh Jacobs is OUT
Rams @ Giants (+5.5) (O/U 45)
The white-hot Rams will fly into the Tri-State area and sit in a smash-spot matchup against a Giants’ secondary that has been exploited all season. Matt Stafford, his receivers, and Kyren Williams all get a boost facing a team that averages 24 points per game allowed with 363 total yards… Get your share of LA for DFS, the Rams need a W to stay alive.
Tommy Cutlets’ 15 minutes of fame is up, bringing back the veteran Tyrod Taylor under center again for Big Blue. LA is passer-friendly though (27th in DVOA), so a Rams’ stack with a Tyrod runback at his very cheap price tag ($4,600 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) is very tempting in GPP tournaments.
Patriots @ Bills (-13) (O/U 40.5)
Buffalo is a heavy favorite at home with plenty of motivation to move up the ladder in the AFC against a Pats team that seems to have mailed it in for 2023. There is no need to make a case for Josh Allen, of course, you pay up if your little heart desires. But as far as his teammates, it’s been a carousel for fantasy. Last week was Gabe Davis, and before that was James Cook. Is it finally Stefon Diggs’ weekend? I’d put money on it, as the Bills WR1 has been known to be vocal on getting the football.
As long as Belichick is in town for New England, he’ll do his best to make it competitive. The Pats DST ($2,300 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is min priced, and in an AFC division game we may see Allen turn the ball over, or a low-scoring affair. Punt the Pats D in DFS for GPPs.
Titans @ Texans (-5) (O/U 43.5)
The Texans will welcome back their rookie stud quarterback C.J. Stroud with open arms come Sunday, as they have desperately missed his production after missing the last two games from a concussion. The matchup couldn’t be any better either, as Tennessee remains a bottom-tier defense (28th in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks), which also gives an upgrade to Nico Collins and Noah Brown. All three are cash-game-friendly.
The Titans will get their regular starter back at quarterback too, Will Levis missed last weekend with an ankle sprain. Houston was dismantled in the secondary by Cleveland’s Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper just one week ago (208YDS/2TDS). Perhaps Levis and DeAndre Hopkins can rekindle their chemistry on the field in a weatherproof environment on the road, in Hopkins‘ old stomping ground of Houston.
Cardinals @ Eagles (-11) (O/U 48.5)
Philadelphia gets a cakewalk this weekend as they need to win out the season for a shot at the number one seed. The Cards, however, will play for pride as they’ve already been eliminated from contention. Kyler Murray continues to show up week to week for future employment, and the Eagles are the perfect landing spot, ranking 30th in the league defending against the pass. But he’ll be missing one of his primary targets Marquise Brown, in turn giving Trey McBride even more work and allowing more snaps to Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore. Let’s not forget running back James Connor is still on this team either, the dude has quietly averaged 20 fantasy points per game in his last three games, because of his role in the passing game.
The Eagles are anticipated to score at will on Arizona, going through Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and AJ Brown. D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell are viable as well against the Cardinals’ 29th-ranked run defense. Pick your poison in Philadelphia at home, and since their defense has been horrific lately, we can expect Kyler and the Cards to keep them honest.
Saints @ Bucs (-2.5) (O/U 42.5)
We’ve got an NFC South battle for the division in Tampa, and the Bucs aim to stay on top. Back in Week 4 Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin feasted heavily, but New Orleans held Mike Evans to only 7 fantasy points. Week 4 was a lifetime ago in the DFS world, so expect Big Mike to get right this time against the Saints, who’ve been slacking defensively as of late.
As good as the Bucs can light up the scoreboard, their secondary bleeds away big plays for opposing offenses (30th in DVOA to opposing receivers). Get those Saints wideouts in your builds, with Chris Olave and Rashid Shahid severely underpriced in this contest. Quarterback Derrick Carr also makes a nice contrarian play, with some low ownership for separation in GPPs.
Falcons @ Bears (-3) (O/U 38)
The total is gross, but I expect some fantasy fireworks out of Chicago and Justin Fields. The clock is ticking for a decision to be made for the Ohio State Alumni’s future, so we should see plenty of Fields scrambling at home. Last week he averaged nearly 10 yards per carry totalling 97 yards and a touchdown.
Falcons’ coach Arthur Smith continues to jeopardize his job by tinkering with his depth charts, especially at quarterback where Taylor Heinicke will once again get the start. But the Bears defense has stepped up in recent weeks, so I’m a little hesitant to roll out any Falcons in my lineups this weekend. Rolling out the Chicago DST could pay some big dividends this weekend with an offense led by Heinicke on the road.
Panthers @ Jaguars (-4) (O/U 38)
A game I would avoid here for DFS. We have the worst team in football going up against a Jaguars team who will be without Trevor Lawrence. The spread has dropped two and a half points since the news broke yesterday, and I kind of get the vibes that CJ Beathard may not be on the path to victory for Jacksonville. However back in Week 16, Beathard peppered wideout Calvin RIdley with nine targets, catching 6 of them for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Evan Engram saw even more volume with 15 targets that game, so both are worth a shot in tournaments. Running back Travis Etienne has been quiet lately, but the matchup is tremendous on paper against the Panthers (29th in DVOA), he deserves a nod as well.
The Jag’s defense has not been the same lock stock type since earlier in the season, so tread lightly in rolling them out for DFS against Carolina. They’ve allowed over 30 points in three of their last four games, so the Panthers will be on the scoreboard. Receiver DJ Chark went bonkers last week out of nowhere, catching two touchdowns for almost 100 yards. A dirt cheap option ($3,600 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) with a revenge game narrative against the team who drafted him.
Steelers @ Seahawks (-3.5) (O/U 41)
Two teams kick off the evening portion of the slate desperately needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt. On the road in Seattle will be a tough task for Mason Rudolph making his second start of the season. He was a gunslinger on Christmas weekend, refusing to check the ball down to his running backs and tight end. George Pickens had a career-high 195 receiving yards and could see a similar type of performance on Sunday if Rudoph can deliver.
Now if Seattle wants to pull off a win at home, they may need to rely on Geno Smith and the passing game, since Kenneth Walker is a game-time decision at running back. In Smith’s return in Week 16 from a groin injury, he was modest throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns. But a healthier Pittsburgh defense could give him a headache, keep an eye out on Walker’s status, if he’s out Zach Charbonnet will be a popular cash game name at his pricetag ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel).
Bengals @ Chiefs (-7) (O/U 44.5)
With all the distractions off the field, commercials, romances, etc… the Chiefs find themselves struggling to stay on top of the AFC West and likely making a rare road appearance in the upcoming playoffs. The Bengals at Arrowhead offer that get-right scenario for Mahomes and especially Travis Kelce, as Cincinnati refuses to defend the tight end position (31st in the NFL). A perfect pivot for tournaments in DFS, Kansas City may let some frustration out on the Bengals Sunday in primetime.
The Jake Browning train came to a screeching halt on the road in Pittsburgh last weekend, and it may still be derailed this weekend. Going up against that tough Kansas City Steve Spagnolo defense will be a tough task for the Cincinnati backup, so I’d steer away from any Bengals for DFS that is pricey. Perhaps a Trent Irwin or Tanner Hudson as dart throws in GPPs, since Tee Higgins and Ja’Maar Chase (if healthy) would see all the attention from the defense.
Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5) (O/U 37.5)
We’ve hit rock bottom to cap off the evening slate, as both teams in this AFC West contest have seemed to be waiving the white flags for 2023. It will be the battle of the backups between Easton Stick and the newly named starter Jarrett Stidham for Denver (Russell Wilson will no longer be cooking for the Broncos). It will be a wait-and-see approach in this contest, so be careful about investing too much in DFS for this game, especially since most of the starters will be out for both sides.
For LA, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer appear to be done for the year due to injuries and Austin Ekeler is stuck in a timeshare with Josh Kelly and Isaiah Spiller. It will be the Quentin Johnston show for the Chargers, and well worth a punt in tournaments. Gerald Everett at the tight end should also be busy due to the shortage of pass catchers for LA, and the price is right ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel).
The Broncos’ receiving core is also pretty banged up with Courtland Sutton already ruled out and Jerry Jeudy questionable along with Marvin Mims. The Broncos may find themselves leaning heavily on running back Javonte Williams, who’ll draw a decent matchup (23rd in DVOA to running backs). Although if Jeudy and Mims do sit this one out, Brandon Johnson, Adam Trautman, and Lil’ Jordan Humphrey should see plenty of volume. All three will be salary relief, allowing us to spend up elsewhere in our builds.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 17. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
