Joe DiCarlo 
Happy Holidays WinDaily family, and welcome to Week 16! Let’s stuff our stockings with some green from DFS this Christmas Eve, and crush this nine-game slate. This season has been a roller coaster loaded with injuries and break-out performances. So at this point, we all should have a good feel for the league by now on which teams to target to pass the pay lines. Now let’s get down to business, we have a decent amount of forty-plus totals with a fifty-pointer to cap it off. On to the breakdown, and again Happy Holidays everybody! As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.
Sunday Main Slate 12/24/23
Lions @ Vikings (+3) (U/O 47.5)
A smash spot for DFS on the slate. Two NFC North rivals will slug it out indoors as the Lions look to lock up the division and Minnesota fights for a Wild Card spot. It’s open season on every position, especially for guys like Jared Goff fresh off a five-touchdown performance, and rookie tight end Sam La Porta, who’s caught five from Goff in his last four games. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery will also be in the mix.
As hot as Detroit has been on the scoreboard, its defense has been shaky as of late, allowing close to an average of 30 points per game since Week 10. Quarterback Nick Mullens may be in line for another quality start at home, and so could his teammates Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson. There are no wrong decisions made for DFS here in this match-up, so pick your poison.
Seahawks @ Titans (+3.5) (O/U 41.5)
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith doesn’t have an injury designation going into the weekend, but will he play? You just never know in this league, we could see another Drew Lock game on the schedule, not that it matters against the Titans’ secondary who rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. Get your shares of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba for your lineups, and watch them light it up. The Seahawks have plenty to play for and need a dub to stay in the playoff race.
Tennessee, on the other hand, may be on its way out the door for 2023. Not only have they been atrocious on defense, but quarterback Will Levis is pretty banged up and Derrick Henry may have hit rock bottom, who averaged less than two yards per carry against Houston. The only game that remains in town for the Titans is DeAndre Hopkins. In 14 games he’s been targeted 115 times, so even if Ryan Tannehill takes over again at QB, expect Hopkins to see most of the volume.
Browns @ Texans (+3) (O/U 40)
Don’t be steered away by the low total, because there’s a fantasy goldmine in this contest. The Browns have catapulted themselves back into the playoff race, thanks to the veteran Joe Flacco. He’s thrown for well over 300 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games, yet DraftKings has him only at $5,500. If you’re sold on Flacco, consider pairing him with tight-end David Njoku, who’s been in my breakdown for numerous weeks because of the upside. Njoku has scored 27 and 29 DK fantasy points in back-to-back games.
But for Houston, well it’s a shame to say that without CJ Stroud snapping the football, it will be an uphill battle. Case Keenum will get the nod once again, and Nico Collins is still less than 100 percent. It’s a hard fade on Texans, especially against a Browns defense that has forced seven turnovers in their last two games.
Commanders @ Jets (-3) (O/U 37)
Both teams will enter the Meadowlands with nothing but bragging rights to play for this weekend, so be mindful of using any of these guys for DFS. The matchup is delicious for Garrett Wilson and fellow Jets’ receivers, but not only are the Jets out of the playoff picture, New York is starting Trevor Siemian. Trevor has coughed the ball up four times with no touchdowns in two games in relief this season.
Even though Washington is also looking from the outside in at 5-11, Sam Howell has been the face of the franchise. The Jets are pretty stingy against opposing quarterbacks (2nd in DVOA) but with Sam’s track record of throwing for well over 300 yards per game (5 games), he’ll be a nice dart for GPPs. Wide receivers in play will be the usual, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson. GPPs only.
Colts @ Falcons (-2.5) (O/U 44.5)
Both teams here are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt, so expect the starters out there. It’ll be indoors, away from Mother Nature, which will help each team. Atlanta especially since coach Arthur Smith can’t make up his mind on who to start or sit all year, throwing a monkey wrench in lineups every week.
We watched Bijan Robinson get benched last week after he fumbled deep in Atlanta’s territory. But the weather played a part in Carolina, and the coaching staff decided to make adjustments. Robinson’s ownership will plummet this weekend after his recent performance, yet he is still the best player for the Falcons. Use him in tournaments, for the discount in salary and separation from the field against a Colts’ defense that has allowed 16 total touchdowns to running backs on the season.
On the Colts’ side, we’ll see Jonathon Taylor back from a thumb injury at running back. But if Zack Moss gets cleared to play, he could eat into Taylor’s volume, so keep an eye on Moss‘ status. Michael Pittman cleared protocol, but still has that questionable tag. If he suits up, he’s playable, as Pittman Jr. is the prize horse in the stable at receiver for Indianapolis. Pittman has scored heavy, double-digit fantasy points in 13 of 15 games this season.
Packers @ Panthers (+5) (O/U 37.5)
Green Bay lands in Carolina looking to keep their slim playoff hopes afloat against a mailed-in 2-12 Panthers team that’s ready to pack it in for 2023. But quarterback Jordan Love has a receiving core that’s been battling injuries week to week, so he may have a skeleton crew at kickoff. Christian Watson is doubtful, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are questionable, AJ Dillon may miss Sunday in a cast around his thumb, and Luke Musgrave still can’t suit up after being removed from IR. Aaron Jones and Tucker Kraft enter the weekend as the only healthy options for Love going into the weekend.
The Panthers have handed over the keys to second-year running back Chuba Hubbard to close out the year. Hubbard has seen 20-plus touches since Week 13, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all three games. He’ll face a Packers’ run defense that averages 138 yards per game, so at $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel, he’s a lock across all formats.
Jaguars @ Bucs (-3) (O/U 40.5)
We enter the evening part of the slate in sunny Florida, as the Jaguars and Bucs aim to remain as division leaders in a must-win for both teams. But Jacksonville will be severely compromised due to injuries, especially if Trevor Lawrence cannot clear his concussion protocol. The Bucs however, are on cloud nine thanks to a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield. He’s been electrifying, throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns in the win against Green Bay.
If it is CJ Beatherd who gets the nod for Jacksonville, he’ll be able to throw it easily against the Bucs’ soft 28th-ranked secondary. I’d keep him in tournaments though, but the lock stock passing options of Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram can be used in cash games as well.
The Jags are a passing funnel as well, so Baker should have no problem getting the ball to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton. Otton would be a great sleeper at tight end, Jacksonville is currently ranked 29th in the league defending the position.
Cardinals @ Bears (-4) (O/U 43)
Here will see two NFC teams slug it out in the windy city, Arizona already being eliminated from the playoffs and Chicago dangling on by a thread, needing a substantial amount of help across the NFC to sneak in. Points will be on the scoreboard for DFS, as both Kyler Murray and Justin FIelds look to hold onto their jobs before ownership decides to draft the position in 2024.
Arizona has been unable to stop a nosebleed on defense all year long, so Bears players will be popular this weekend. Along with Fields, play his right-hand man DJ Moore along with whoever you decide on in the Bears’ backfield. D’Onta Foreman could miss the game due to personal reasons, which would allow a clearer path at running back with Rochon Johnson or Khalil Herbert. Tight end Cole Kmet also enters the weekend questionable, if he can’t suit up, Robert Tonyan will make a nice punt in GPPs.
Kyler Murray has had one guy locked in his sights since his return from IR this season, with the chemistry building from week to week. Tight end Trey McBride has become the Cardinals’ top receiving option in 2023, leading the team in receptions with 66. Chicago has improved on the defensive side of the ball, but they are still 28th in the league defending tight ends.
Cowboys @ Dolphins (-1) (O/U 50)
To end the slate, we get the main event in Miami. The Dolphins and Cowboys have a lot at stake, as both teams look to secure first place in each of their divisions. Miami will be back to full strength getting back Tyreek Hill and the Cowboys will be out for blood after taking a beating up in Buffalo last week.
Expect fireworks in this game, with two teams fully weaponized in a 50-point total, we could see some back-and-forth action as both teams are capable of the task. Everybody is in the mix, but their salaries are through the roof. Some cheap exposure to the game may be a path to consider. Guys like Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks for example, but studs like Raheem Mostert and CeeDee Lamb should not be overlooked.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 16. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
