Joey Ikez 
We have reached the end of the regular season for Best Ball, and I have advanced 34 out of 150 teams in the Draft Kings $10 Best Ball Millionaire Tournament. I have advanced 22.67% of teams which is above the average of 16.67%. Not too shabby! Check out this awesome X thread which shows your chance of getting to the finals based on # of teams advancing.
This tournament has a total of 4 rounds. This week, which is Week 15, is considered Round 2. In Round 2, only the first place team in the 12-team groupings will advance. So, of my 34 teams, approximately only 3 will move onto Round 3. I have some nicely stacked QB-WR-TE pairings, so hopefully I am on the right side of variance (luck) and can advance more than the expected 3.
As I reflect on my drafts from the pre-season, I will look at my top 5 Hits and my worst 5 Misses. It is important to learn from the mistakes that I made this season, so I can improve upon my process and my advancement rate for next season. Without further ado, lets dive in!
Top 5 Hits:
Jerome Ford – 21% – the Nick Chubb injury has led to Ford getting most of Cleveland’s snaps and touches. Kareem Hunt has cut into his workload a bit, but this younger and faster RB has way more burst and upside. The Cleveland OL has recently undergone devasting injuries and will start several backups this week against Chicago. However, this late round RB has already amassed close to 1,000 total yards and 6 TDs. Unless you selected CMC in round 1, Zero RB will have a great advancement rate in this year’s tournaments. Jaylen Warren at 21% and Chuba Hubbard at 19% are two more late round successes who almost made my top 5.
Trey McBride – 20% – Zach Ertz is old. This write-up can stop right there, but it won’t. I love you, the reader, too much to leave you hanging. This young TE has shined in his first starts with Arizona, and I see no signs of him slowing down. The Cardinals’ defense has been a turnstile, which should lead to many Cardinals passing attempts these next three weeks. Although he has only found the endzone twice this season, he is the #1 option in Arizona’s passing offense. During draft season I was willing to bet on McBride’s talent. And my bet has paid off handsomely.
AJ Brown – 16% – my favorite late first round click from this summer has enjoyed a breakout season to the tune of 1200+ yards with 7 TDs. And there’s 3 more games left to play! Already a stud, AJ will be selected in the early first round in next year’s drafts. I like drafting with conviction. And this offseason I was convinced AJ will have a career best season. With D’Andre Swift and the entire Eagles’ rushing offense struggling the last 2 weeks, there is a good chance Philly might be more pass-heavy down the stretch. And I will welcome that with open arms.
Brock Purdy – 13% – with Seattle and San Fran sharing the title of “First 3 Pass Catchers Off Fantasy Draft Boards”, I was surprised Purdy was being drafted as late as he was going. I mean someone must throw the ball to Deebo, Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Maybe the fact that he was unproven and coming off elbow surgery gave some drafters trepidation. Frankly, I’m upset this 13% isn’t higher. It looks like he’s in a two-horse race with Dak for MVP honors, as the San Fran offense looks as good as it’s ever been. And Mr. Purdy is the engine that drives the train.
Cooper Kupp – 3% – my biggest first round fade will hold the title as the player in the first round with the lowest advance rate. Being right in the early round is WAY more important than being right in the later rounds. His age and injury concern threw caution to the wind. If I’m willing to plant a flag on someone, I will Baker Mayfield Oklahoma style flag-plant someone.
Top 5 Misses:
Rashod Bateman – 25% – this is gross. I ain’t gonna lie. He has produced zero double digit fantasy point weeks this season. Where did this go wrong? Zay Flowers emerged, OBJ only missed 2 games due to injury, and Nelson Agholor got way more playing time than anticipated. I was willing to bet on the Ravens passing offense, and I was most willing to do it with the oft injured former first round pick. Granted he didn’t cost me an early round pick, but he has produced zero usable weeks. My biggest bust (giddigy) and it’s not even close.
Zamir White – 13% – Josh Jacobs holdout + coming off a 340-carry campaign. I was willing to bet on Jacobs holding out OR being traded OR getting hurt. Sadly, none of that has happened. What has happened instead? Jacobs has gotten 233 carries and hasn’t missed a game. Ugh. In an interesting turn of events, Jacobs left the Raiders last game with an injury and his doubtful to play this Thursday night. Maybe, just maybe, this won’t be a bust after all?
Tee Higgins – 13% – this early third round pick has burned many of my teams. Betting almost 2x the field on someone who has had only 2 double digit point weeks is no bueno. Burrow’s slow start, combined with Tee missing a few games, combined with the Bengals offense disappointing has led to Higgins having a career worst year. In a contract year no less.
Rashaad Penny – 12% – my biggest RB bust has 5 carries on the season. Mainly drafted has a RB3/4, he not only has produced zilch, but has sometimes been inactive on game days. Swift hasn’t missed a game and Gainwell is trusted in pass protection and hurry up situations. Philly’s OL is one of the league’s best, which is why I was willing to bet on Penny. When healthy, he’s shown he’s more than capable of ripping off huge weeks. At being only 3% on D’Andre Swift, I was clearly too willing to take the cheap way out by using a later round pick on Penny. When faced with a similar situation next season, I’d be much better off diversifying and going maybe something like 9% and 6% on similar backfield split situations.
Dak Prescott – 2% – this % doesn’t make sense to me. After looking at my ownership %’s on Dallas position players, clearly, I was high on their offense. Tony Pollard 17%, Brandin Cooks 16%, CD Lamb and Michael Gallup both 9%. Only Jake Ferguson was at a low ownership level of 2%. Dak was being drafted in a weird pocket. He was going after ‘the last of the elites’ Herbert and Lawrence, but before Goff, Geno, and Kirk Cousins. After putting much thought into this low % here is what I came up with. If I didn’t draft CD Lamb, the only way I drafted Dak was ‘naked’ with no stacked pass catchers. I was less willing to draft Dak and ATTEMPT to pair with him a pass catcher later in the draft, than I was just drafting CD Lamb and prioritizing the Dak stack. When looking at Brock Purdy, all 3 of his pass catchers are drafted BEFORE him. When looking at Dak the # of pass catchers drafted before him is only 1. This is another leak I need to fix for next season when faced with a similar circumstance.
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