Ivan Herrera 
Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! We are starting Week 12 action on Saturday with a big 12-game slate. We are starting to enter conference matchups, which always make for great environments.
The purpose of this article is to break down the college football main slates, both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position as well as honorable mentions. You can also find my favorite bets under my Dragos Best Bets section.
The QBs:
Ethan Garbers (UCLA): $6,400
I love that DraftKings is giving us a discount on UCLA players, considering they are facing a team that gives up 446.5 yards and 4.5 touchdowns per game. 59% of the yards and 56% of the touchdowns they allow per game come from the passing game. Garbers has been in a QB battle all season with transfer Schlee and freshman Moore, but all signs point to Garbers being the one who will lead the Bruins for the remainder of the season. In two of his last three games, Garber has gone for over 20 points on DraftKings, and in his lone under-20 performance, he exited the game with an injury. USC is the perfect get-well spot for any QB, as they have given up strong DFS performances to nearly every opposing QB.
Who to pair him with: Logan Loya. J.Michael Sturdivant.
Joey Aguilar (APPST): $7,500
Aguilar is one of my favorite QBs on the slate at 7.5K or below. Aguilar has been a great DFS QB, averaging 24.6 points on DraftKings, including 28 points in the past three weeks. This week he should keep up his great run as he faces a James Madison side that is ranked 116th against the pass, allowing 263.3 yards per game. JMU has been tough to score passing touchdowns on despite allowing all those yards, but Aguilar comes in averaging 2.6 passing touchdowns.
Who to pair him with: Christian Horn. Kaedin Robinson.
Carson Beck (UGA): $9,000
Beck has had a solid year, replacing Bennett as the Bulldogs starting QB. In six of his 10 starts, he has managed to have 20 or more points on DraftKings, including three games over 25. He gets to take on a Tennessee pass defense that has been in the middle of the pack all season. The Vols allow 227.5 yards and under a touchdown pass per game. But Beck will have his number one target back in this game, as Bowers will be healthier than he was last game, where he logged three catches for 24 yards and a touchdown after missing three games due to injury. Beck is a great pivot off of the $9500+ QBs who will need to go crazy to hit value.
Who to pair him with: Brock Bowers. Ladd McConkey.
Honorable Mentions: Bo Nix (ORE). Dillon Gabriel (OU). Caleb Wiliams (USC). Drake Maye (UNC). Jordan McCloud (JMU). Donovan Smith (UH). Sam Hartman (ND).
Value QBs: NONE BELOW GARBERS
The RBs:
Ollie Gordon II (OKST): $8,800
The nation’s leading rusher was finally stopped this past week by a mixture of heavy rain and UCF stacking the box. Gordon had 12 carries for 25 yards, which snapped his six-game streak of over 100 rushing yards. This weekend, he gets a slightly more difficult opponent in Houston, but one that is still vulnerable against the run. The Cougars have allowed over 150 yards on the ground to each of their last six opponents and seven of their last eight. Look for Gordon to bounce back and regain his stats that had him as the favorite for the best RB in CFB award.
Kaelon Black (JMU): $5,500
I talked about Black’s opponent’s QB, Aguilar, but it’s time to talk about one of the players that will keep Aguilar throwing. Black is the lead back at JMU and is getting an extremely favorable matchup against App State and their 9th worst rush defense. Over the past two weeks, Black has been dealing with an injury, so he has had close to no production, but he should be a lot healthier for the game against App State. If he gets close to the 14 carries he averaged prior to the injury, then he should still be able to put up solid numbers against App State. Black is also involved in the passing game, averaging 2.3 receptions for 21.4 yards per game.
Carson Steele (UCLA): $6,400
While Gordon is the best RB on the slate, the one in the best situation is Carson Steele. Steele and the Bruins take on their in-city rivals, USC, in the Crosstown Showdown. Steele comes into the rivalry game averaging 74.5 yards and.6 touchdowns per game. But he should improve on his stats against one of the nation’s worst rush defenses. The Trojans allow 182.3 yards and two touchdowns per game. USC has not been able to stop any RB; the only times a RB didn’t go off on them were the Nevada and Stanford games, in which USC had huge leads and their opponents needed to abandon the run. That should not be an issue this week, as UCLA will keep this game competitive for all 60 minutes.
Honorable Mentions: Blake Corum (MICH). Bucky Irving (ORE). Audric Estime (ND). Daijun Edwards (UGA). Omarion Hampton (UNC). Jawhar Jordan (UL). Tawee Walker (OU). Cam Skattebo (ASU).
Value RBs (5K and under): Michael Wiley (ARIZ). Parker Jenkins (UH).
The WRs:
Samuel Brown (UH): $5,800
Brown gets a great matchup against a bad Cowboys pass defense. Oklahoma State’s pass defense is in the bottom 20 against the pass and gives up the second-most passing touchdowns on the slate. Brown comes into this game tied for 30th in targets (86) this season and ranks 28th in targets per game at 8.6. Brown will be targeted often in a game that will be a shootout, as this game comes in tied for the second highest total on the slate. We saw last week that OKST couldn’t stop the passing game as Plumlee and his WRs did whatever they wanted against this secondary.
Tez Johnson (ORE): $7,300
While I could have easily included Oregon’s top star, Troy Franklin, instead I am taking the discount and taking their second WR. Both WRs have played a big role in making QB Bo Nix a Heisman candidate. They both have over 50 receptions and 65 targets. The $1,400 discount you get coming down from Franklin to Tez isn’t much but can be helpful in lineup construction. The reason why I am high on Johnson is that, despite being the WR, he only averages 1.4 fewer targets per game than Franklin and has a 5% catch rate on targets. Johnson catches 77% of his targets, while Franklin catches 72% of his targets. So while Franklin has more targets over the season, Johnson is right next to him because he is able to haul in more passes thrown his way.
Tez Walker (UNC): $8,100
The second Tez on this list, Walker, has been exactly what UNC needed when he transferred over to the TarHeels. Since getting approval from the NCAA to play for UNC, Walker has had two games with at least 35 points and another one with over 25. Walker’s return to the field couldn’t have come at a better time for UNC, as they are fighting to secure a spot in the ACC title game. This game is a battle of the top 10: UNC’s number 8 passing offense against Clemson’s number 7 pass defense. So while I expect a tough game, Maye will need to lean on his best WR. The total in this game is also one of the highest, so the oddsmakers are expecting Walker to have a strong game.
Honorable Mentions: Drake Stoops (OU). Rashad Owens (OKST). Reggie Brown (JMU). Elijah Badger (ASU). Troy Franklin (ORE). Jaolby George (MIA).
Value Plays (4.9K and under): Lake McRee (USC). Corey Dyches (UMD). Colston Loveland (MICH). Terrance Ferguson (ORE).
Drago’s Best Bets:
- USC vs UCLA Over 65.5
- Georgia -10
- Louisville ML
- Oklahoma State -6.5
- AppState vs JMU Over 56
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