Joe DiCarlo 
Welcome back for another round of DFS, hope everyone profited last weekend. The Houston Texans continue to line the pockets of all their believers, as the matchup between the Bengals became a money-making shoot-out of the slate.
Week Ten was loaded with some ugly totals, yet we were still able to clean up in DFS. We were all over the slate with the top players from each contest, including underpriced studs like Trey McBride and Mike Evans.
Week Eleven will feature 11 games of some decent totals. The Giants, Cardinals, and Panthers are back this weekend to pick on, with a few late games to stack on that could lead to some back-and-forth action. As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.
Sunday Main Slate 11/19/23
Cowboys @ Panthers (+10.5) (O/U 42.5)
Does the Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones have NFL schedule creators on his payroll? They continue to have opponents served up on a silver platter as they take on the 1-9 Panthers this Sunday. Dallas will again take advantage of the matchup to beat up and down Carolina’s lackluster defense (24.9 points allowed/game).
Giddy up with the Dallas offense, including the scorching-hot CeeDee Lamb, who’s caught 34 receptions for 500 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. Don’t throw in the towel yet on Tony Pollard either. Take advantage of the salary drop against the Panthers’ pin-cushion run defense (31st in the league).
As the Cowboys should light up the scoreboard in Carolina, the Panthers will be playing from behind once more. The veteran Adam Thielen has been rookie Bryce Young’s safety valve all season, but the cost is now through the roof. Consider cheaper options like Jonathon Mingo and DJ Chark as punt plays at receiver in a negative game script.
mid this game does get out of hand, guys like Brandin Cooks, Jake Fergusen, and Michael Gallup could also be beneficiaries of another Dallas walk-thru-the-park NFL weekend.
Raiders @ Dolphins (-12) (O/U 46.5)
Miami returns home from an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs in Germany and sitting in the best possible bounce-back situation hosting the Raiders. Tua to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be expected, but the Dolphins anticipate reactivating DeVon Achane from IR this weekend as well. But as Dynamic as Achane has been, it would be tough to pay up for him at running back after the long layoff from a knee injury.
it was a breath of fresh air to finally see Vegas force-feed the ball to Devante Adams last game (6 REC/ 86 YDS on 13 Targets). The Raiders will ride the hot hand, winners of two straight games after the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, and continue to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers like Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs.
Bears @ Lions (-9.5) (O/U 47)
Now we’re cooking with grease. We love Detroit on the slate, especially against a Bears who will regain their starting quarterback of Justin Fields. Chicago may put up a fight in this spot with Fields back under center, giving us a little shootout potential in a weather-proof indoor contest.
The return of Fields rejuvenates fantasy relevance back into the offense such as DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Both have taken a nose dive during his absence and now that their salaries have taken a hit, I’m back in the mix with the Bears’ offense for DFS.
Detroit continues to be at the top of the charts for DFS for cash games and tournaments. From Jared Goff at home, averaging well over 23 fantasy points per game, Amon-Ra as his go-to guy closing in on 1,000 yards already this season (821), and the one-two punch backfield of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (combined for 193 YDS and 3TDS in Week 10).
Cardinals @ Texans (-4) (O/U 47.5)
Can the matchup get any juicer for the potential rookie of the year CJ Stroud? Marco Wilson and the Arizona secondary will have their work cut out for them this weekend as Stroud’s receiving core will be back at full strength with starter Nico Collins returning to the lineup. (Not that it matters as Stroud has made guys off the street fantasy viable…just ask Noah Brown).
As bad as the dumpster-fire defense of the Cardinals is, the return of Kyler Murray has given some hope for the offense for the rest of the season. 18 fantasy points are respectable for a running quarterback’s first game back from an ACL injury, and tight end Trey McBride was his biggest cheerleader. McBride had instant chemistry with Murray, catching eight of nine targets for 131 yards. Expect more of the McBride breakout in Houston, as they’re 26th in DVOA to opposing tight ends.
Steelers @ Browns (-4) (O/U 36.5)
This AFC North battle may set the clocks of the NFL back 60 years to the days of leather helmets. The Browns and Steelers could rely heavily on their running attack, as we know by now quarterback Deshaun Watson had season-ending surgery on his shoulder and Kenny Pickett stinks at football. The Browns have named rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,500 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) as their starter, who had a decent preseason and could be a value if he manages to scramble for some rushing yardage against a beatable Steelers’ run defense (22nd in DVOA).
All four backs of Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, Najee Harris, and Jalen Warren should see plenty of volume as the play-calling may lean heavily on each team’s running game and hide their quarterbacks. Pick your poison for a $5K RB on DraftKings and pair with either of their defenses, who feature the likes of Myles Garrett and TJ Watt awaiting for sack and fumble opportunities.
Titans @ Jaguars (-6.5) (O/U 39.5)
Trevor Lawrence has taken a few steps back this season compared to where he was last season, but he now has the perfect storm to make amends with fantasy managers this week against a Titans’ passing-funnel defense. He’s mid-range priced on the slate and offers some feeling of comfort with the matchup and previous performances last season. Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley have smash spots across from cornerbacks Fulton and McCreary, and we may even see a return of Zay Jones to feast after a long stay on the injured list.
Now Tennessee will also get a dose of their own medicine against Jacksonville’s run-stopping defense. Will the rookie Will Levis return to his debut self against a Jaguars pass funnel? That remains to be seen, but we all know where the ball is going… to DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry. All three will look to bounce back from a craptastic game out in Tampa, so a roster of any Titans would be a sneaky play in GPPs.
Giants @ Commanders (-9.5) (O/U 37.5)
Pump the brakes here in this one guys, don’t be rushing to draft too many Commanders against the pitiful Giants’ defense. It’s a divisional game where New York held Washington to only seven points. But with the departure of pressure from Leonard Williams and the atrocious coverage of Adoree Jackson and Diontae Banks, we can predict Washington to get some revenge.
Start all your Commanders, especially Terry McLaurin who leads the team in targets (75), and a Brian Robinson-led backfield who will be missing Antonio Gibson from a toe injury.
As for New York well, if you believe in Tommy Devito, then fire away on a $3,500 on DraftKings Wan’dale Robinson against the third-worst secondary in the league. Robinson will roam the middle of the field and live in the slot, where Devito has been successful on completions.
Chargers @ Packers (+3) (O/U 44.5)
If only Jordan Love were a competent quarterback this total would be over 50 against LA. But let’s make some lemonade out of a few of these lemons. The Packers’ best weapon is Aaron Jones, and now that his salary has dropped I’m in with him facing the Chargers’ bottom-five run defense. Rookie receivers Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have seen eight targets each in their last two contests combined. Consider them in DFS for some cap space savers and dart throws in GPPs as they have formed some chemistry with Jordan Love.
The Chargers will battle the injury bug yet again this weekend with even more receivers hitting the injury list, including leader Keenan Allen. With Gerald Everett already being ruled out and Jalen Guyton listed as questionable, They’ll have to utilize Austin Ekeler again. The Chargers continue to use the hybrid as a receiver as much as a running back, scoring over 20 fantasy points in his last three games. Also, consider Chargers tight end Donald Parham to inherit the bulk of the snap share from the injured Everett with his 6’8” body frame.
Bucs @ Niners (-11.5) (U/O 41.5)
The Niners at 100 percent capacity should steamroll their competitors yet again at home. Key pieces like Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel have proven to make a difference in last week’s annihilation of Jacksonville. Get your share of the offense this weekend as they face a Bucs secondary that has been a dumpster fire and is two weeks removed from the rookie CJ Stroud throwing for 470 yards and five touchdowns.
The Bucs stop here, except for Mike Evans, whose been the centerpiece of the Tampa Bay offense. San Fransisco’s secondary has been exploitable throughout the season, allowing just over 220 yards per game (25th in DVOA to receivers), but it’s hard to trust Baker Mayfield on the road against this hungry Niners defense. It’s Mike Evans or bust for me for Tampa, catching for over 450 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games.
Jets @ Bills (-7) (O/U 40.5)
Two AFC East teams struggling at both ends of the football meet-up in Buffalo, and I’m not too thrilled about it for DFS. Josh Allen has not been able to take care of the football, throwing picks since Week 5, and Zach Wilson has still been a deer in headlights under center. Rostering any either offensive player carries a huge risk, especially at their high salaries, consider using the Bills’ or Jets’ DSTs for DFS, with Gang Green giving a discount at only $2,600 on Draftkings.
Seahawks @ Rams (+1) (U/O 46)
To wrap up the slate we have a tasty NFC West matchup indoors that gives us an impression of some back-and-forth action for NFL DFS, an aspect we love to stack on in GPPs. Both secondaries have been toasted by their opponents over the past two weeks, and with Matt Stafford two weeks removed from his injury, we should see some fireworks.
Geno Smith had his first big game of the year throwing for 369 yards and two scores, but he may be without Tyler Lockett due to an injury this week. Great news for DK Metcalf and the rookie Jaxson Smith-Njigba to see an uptick in volume. Running back Kenneth Walker would also be in play as the clear bell-cow for Seattle.
Stafford at full health can breathe life into the Rams’ offense, with hopes of getting Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua back into full throttle. Back in Week One, we saw the Puca breakout (10REC/119YDS), minus Kupp while on IR. We should see a similar production game again as the Rams look to stay in contention for a playoff berth.
Cash Core
- Geno Smith
- Terry McLaurin
- Trey McBride
- Aaron Jones
GPP Core
- Tony Pollard
- Trevor Lawrence
- Mike Evans
- Donald Parham
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
