Week 9 was not a pretty week for RBs. But we hit on five of the top ten backs on the board including nailing the top RB producer in Rachaad White. Who by the way, was only owned by 9% of owners in the main slate Milly Maker. The highest producing lineups last week used just 2 RBs in their lineup. And looking at the Week 10 slate, we might be in for a similar strategy.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $9200 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Don’t overthink this one too much. With a lack of depth at RB, and value in the QB and WR fields, we can spend up on McCaffrey. Jacksonville has been good against RBs but they have allowed the most receptions to backs this year with 60. That’s an average of 7.5 catches for RBs per week. And do you know who is good at catching the ball out of the backfield? That’s right its CMAC who has 32 catches this season for an average of 4 per game. The 49ers RB should have room to run on the ground but it is his value in the passing game which makes him have one of the highest ceilings this week.

DERRICK HENRY $7400 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Now that Tennessee has a QB that can advance the ball downfield, their star RB has room to run. In the last three games, Henry has averaged 91 yards rushing. He’s also brought in three catches per game in those same contests. His opponent this week is Tampa Bay who has been solid against the run as they’ve allowed the 5th least fantasy points to RBs. But as you dive inside the numbers, the Bucs are vulnerable as they allow 4.8 ypc and are just 12th best against the run according to DVOA+. The other factor is the Bucs are the worst defense against the pass so their run defense doesn’t get tested very often. I expect Tennessee to buck that trend and feed Henry this week.

TONY POLLARD $7300 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

There comes a week that Pollard has to break out of his season long slump. The Cowboys RB was taken in the top 20 of most fantasy drafts and has let most owners down. But in comes the Giants who are 28th in rushing defense DVOA and allow the 8th most points to fantasy RBs. With a watered down RB slate, I’m going to trust Pollard with a blindfold. If not this week, then it may be Rico Dowdle time.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DAVID MONTGOMERY $6900 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

Let me show you a few numbers and you can choose which RB is a better player:

• Running Back A: 399 yards rushing, 5.3 ypc, 5 catches per game, 165 receiving yards, 5.9 y/catch
• Running Back B: 385 yards rushing, 4.0 ypc, 1 catch per game, 66 receiving yards, 11 y/catch

Welcome to Detroit Lions football. Where the head coach favors 4 yards and a cloud of dust. Running back B is David Montgomery who is now back and healthy. Running back A is Jahmyr Gibbs who collected 220 yards rushing in the last two games while Montgomery was out. But I expect HC Dan Campbell to revert back to his old ways and give Montgomery 60% of the touches and all near the goal line. If so, he will pay off at this price as he’s facing a Chargers defense that is 20th in rushing defense DVOA.

AARON JONES $6500 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

Aaron Jones finally broke out last week as he put up his best numbers since opening week against Chicago. And he isn’t listed on the injury report this week which is a sign he is 100% healthy. He gets the Pittsburgh Steelers this week who have allowed the 6th most points to RBs. The other good news is that Jones has been featured in the passing game with 16 targets the last three weeks.

JOE MIXON $6200 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Part of the Bengals ascension of late has been their renewed commitment to the running game. And Joe Mixon has been the beneficiary as he’s averaged 15 fantasy points per game in Cincy’s four game winning streak. This week he gets the Texans who struggle stopping the run. Houston has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to RBs and has allowed eight TDs to ball carriers. Just look at Tampa last week who has the 2nd worst rushing offense their 3rd highest rushing output of the season last week against Houston, including two rushing TDs.

BIJAN ROBINSON $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

If HC Arthur Smith doesn’t feed Bijan this week then Atlanta needs to reconsider who should be leading this team. Their opponent, Arizona, allows the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs. They are also ranked 30th in rushing defense DVOA. Robinson is a dynamic back that was drafted in the top 10 for a reason. With a backup QB under center, the running game needs to be the focal point. I’m bullish on Bijan based on matchup but I also know Arthur Smith can ruin that position very easily. Therefore, I’m leaning on the Falcons RB more on GPPs based on a potentially high ceiling and fading in cash based on a very low floor.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

JAMES CONNER $5900 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

Conner has been activated from the IL. And at this price, he is definitely worth considering. The Falcons are allowing 107 yards rushing per game which is in the middle of the pack in the NFL. With the return of Kyler Murray, the running game has potential to open up. And if Conner plays, he’s a candidate for 20+ touches as the options behind him are very underwhelming.

RASCHAAD WHITE DraftKings $5800 FanDuel $6600

The Bucs RB has averaged 20.5 fantasy points over the past three weeks. In that span, he’s seen 75%, 82% and 80% of the snaps. He’s a workhorse that is underpriced based on his usage. While Tennessee has been good against the run the past two seasons, teams have started move the ball effectively on the ground against the Titans. Just last week, the Steeler ran for 166 yards against Tennessee. And Pittsburgh has the 22nd ranked run offense according to DVOA. This is a good price and a decent spot for White, who led all RBs in scoring last week.

JAYLEN WARREN DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6600

Warren had his best game of the year last week against the Titans when he ran for 88 yards on 11 carries. This week he faces the Packers who have struggled against the run for two years. This year they are allowing the 8th most points to RBs and are 20th in rushing defense DVOA. While Harris will still get 55% of the snaps or more, Warren is closing the gap in touches as he got 45% last week.

BONUS: DEVIN SINGLETARY DraftKings $4600 FanDuel $6600

With Dameon Pierce already ruled out, Singletary should get the majority of the touches at RB this week against the Bengals. That’s worth a look at this price tag.

RB PROP BETS

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.