Joe DiCarlo 
Are we having fun yet? Well, can you’re cashing in DFS it usually is. Kudos to you if you stacked the Texans/Bucs shootout last weekend and dismissed the low SportsBook totals. Cash games were still solid, as players CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown continue to be underpriced, we’ll still be crossing pay lines. Demario Douglas, our value move for 50/50’s, helped pave the way to stacking the Dallas/Philadelphia thriller in Week 9.
On to Week 10. Another 10-gamer because of the byes and a European morning exhibition. Let’s keep it cut and dry for cash and experiment in tournaments As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.
Sunday Main Slate 11/12/23
Texans @ Bengals (-6.5) (O/U 48)
The days of sneaking in an affordable low-key quarterback for DFS are over, as CJ Stroud begins separating himself from the field for the OROTY (Offensive Rookie of the Year). Fresh off of his best performance of the year, throwing for over 400 yards and five touchdowns, Stroud’s arm should be busy again in Cincinnati, but he’ll be without one of his favorite targets Nico Collins, who’ll be sidelined this weekend. Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods all get a bump this weekend with Collins out of the mix.
The Bengals have been on a roll since their bye, defeating the Forty-Niners and Bills without raising an eyebrow. As a touchdown favorite, they’ll need to rally without Tee Higgins, and possibly Ja’Maar Chase this weekend. Keep a close eye on the injury reports for Chase, as Joe Burrow’s arsenal could be heavily compromised. Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd rise the fantasy ladder against Houston, and others may include Irv Smith and Trent Irwin if Chase does sit this one out.
Browns @ Ravens (-6) (O/U 37.5)
A gruesome, grind-it-out divisional game in the AFC North. The Ravens and Browns are both a run-first offense and fully capable of stopping their opponents (3rd and 9th in DVOA against running backs).
Lamar Jackson has been disappointing for fantasy over the past few weeks, barely scoring double-digit points. He’s untouchable for cash, but if you’re looking at ownership for tournaments, fire away on Jackson. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews have been Lamar’s go-to guys all year in the air attack, so if the Browns do manage to hold the line, both will be in play for Baltimore.
Deshaun Watson showed us some improvement last week throwing for two touchdowns, but it was against one of the worst defenses in the league in Arizona. I can’t see the same scenario play out for Watson on the road in Baltimore, whose defense has been the stingiest in the league in points allowed (13.9). The Browns’ offense could struggle this weekend against the top-ten Ravens’ defense, buyer beware for DFS in Cleveland.
Niners @ Jaguars (+3) (O/U 46.5)
Lock: Christian McCaffrey
It would be a hard pill to swallow to see San Francisco lose four straight games, but stranger things have happened in the NFL. Brock Purdy will be getting some key pieces back, including Pro Bowl Left Tackle Trent Williams. He’ll be much needed against a Jaguars’ pass-funnel offense to connect with the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. CMC remains unfadeable. He leads the league in rushing (652 yards), receiving (292 yards), and total touchdowns (13) amongst running backs. Always worth his weight in DFS, and superb for GPPs because of his high price tag.
The Jags are winners of five straight games and are very capable of making it six against a recently exploited San Fransisco secondary. Trevor Lawrence is due for a game, and this could be the weekend to roster him for DFS in GPP as the field will sway away because of his past performances. For only $6,000 on DraftKings, he’s got the game script and a healthy gang of receivers at his disposal, including running back Travis Etienne, who’s currently fourth in the league in fantasy points per game with 20.5.
Packers @ Steelers (-3) (O/U 38)
Another stinker, do I smell both defenses on either side here? Green Bay finally let loose Aaron Jones last weekend, touching the rock 20 times for 73 yards and a touchdown as well as catching six passes from Jordan Love, who by the way still looks like he has no clue how to run the offense. The Packers rely on Jones to move the ball, and against a Steelers defense that ranks 29th against the run, he is in the DFS conversation.
Oh boy, the Steelers, where do we attack in black and gold? Kenny Pickett has one foot out the door in Pittsburgh, so no thanks. We should see another force-fed game as last week against Tennessee. Najee Harris ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) and Jaylen Warren ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) are both affordable facing a Packers’ 23rd in DVOA against running backs, especially Harris as he sees the majority of touches in the red zone for the duo. The Packers’ shutdown corner Jaire Alexander will miss another game here in Week 10, so Diontae Johnson ($5,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) in the short-range passing game at his low price.
Saints @ Vikings (+2.5) (O/U 41)
The Vikes traded for Josh Dobbs on the deadline and pulled out a win, barely knowing the Minnesota playbook. He’ll be up to his old bag of tricks in his new home, peppering the tight end position… hello TJ Hockenson! But as the Vikings gained a quarterback to replace Kirk Cousins, they lost running back Cam Akers and receiver KJ Osborn this week. Alexander Mattison will now own the backfield once again, but the matchup isn’t the juiciest. With the loss of Osborn however, the doors have opened up again for punts at receiver such as Brandon Powell and Trishton Jackson, take your shot in tournaments!
It’s once again that time to pick on that famous Minnesota secondary who loves to pad the stats of their opponents across the field. Chris Olave has the best matchup on paper and is a lock for cash facing the Minnesota defense that allowed tight end Jonnu Smith a stat line of 5REC/100YDS/1TD with quarterback Taylor Heinicke.
Titans @ Bucs (-1) (O/U 39)
Don’t be scared away by this low total ladies and gents, as we have two terrible defenses going heads up in Tampa. The 26th-ranked Tennessee secondary will meet the 31st-ranked Tampa Bay secondary to discuss who will be smoked the most this weekend. Could it be Tenessee? They’ll be missing their best corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, setting up Mike Evans to run circles around Christian Fulton and Roger McCreary all afternoon. Or perhaps Tampa? The rookie Will Levis looks pretty comfortable with Derrick Henry in the backfield and DeAndre Hopkins to target.
I’d dive into some pieces here on the slate, and possibly stack with some of the other affordable assets such as Baker Mayfield and Rachaad White, who has become a check-down machine lately (17 REC in the previous three games). Keep in mind, both sides play a very concentrated style of distributing the football, making it easy for us fantasy managers to know where the points are headed…no need to get cute here!
Lions @ Chargers (+2.5) (O/U 48.5)
Shoot out alert! Starring in the highest total of the slate, Jared Goff ($6,400 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) returns to LA, indoors, and against a Chargers secondary that is dead-last in passing yards allowed (286/32nd DVOA). Lock him across the board in your cash or GPPs as his price is criminal. Don’t stop at Goff either, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam La Porta make the cut here as well for cash in a game that should take the cake for ownership.
The Chargers have welcomed back running back Austin Ekeler with wide-open arms from injury, scoring 20 fantasy points per game in his return. But against the Lions’ third-ranked run defense, we can’t afford the risk. Even Justin Herbert is priced up still, who we can’t trust with his only healthy weapon of Keenan Allen available. This may be the week we see Quentin Johnson ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) break out, as he’s run in 58% of the Chargers’ routes. He’s priced right and a sneaky run-back play in a stack here.
Falcons @ Cardinals (+1) (O/U 43.5)
The dumpster fire defense in the desert is open for business for another weekend. Taylor Heinicke, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and even Bijon Robinson all are sitting pretty for DFS, we just have to hope and pray head coach Arthur Smith doesn’t screw us over again. Not one Falcon is over $6K on DraftKings, so grab some value in Atlanta as they face a gross secondary led by Marco Wilson and a run defense that has allowed 14 touchdowns to running backs on the year.
There will be some glimmer of light on offense for the Cards in Week 10, as Kyler Murray will make his debut. I’m not running to use him just yet for DFS, but he has been known to attack preferred targets like Marquise Brown ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) and Rondale Moore ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) when he was healthy last season. I’d be more than happy to gamble on such receivers in cash or GPPs because of their low costs.
Giants @ Cowboys (-16) (U/O 38.5)
Yikes, guys, this game has a blowout script written all over it. The Giants are tanking the season as they are rolling with GoodFella Tommy DeVito at quarterback and a secondary filled by Adoree Jackson and Diontae Banks. On the road in Dallas, we could see this contest over by halftime. I love Pollard in this spot along with CeeDee Lamb, but you have to keep in mind, how much will they be needed. The Cowboy’s defense looks awesome too, but should we have to pay up there? Not really. I’d have no issue staying away altogether from this game due to the facts we all see in plain sight.
Commanders @ Seahawks (-6) (O/U 45.5)
Seattle at home is in a great spot to bounce back and get into the win column as the defense-less Commanders pay a visit. The total score is not bad at all compared to some of the others we’ve seen on the slate, so the field could show some interest. Geno Smith will see not much pressure in the pocket with the commanders trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the book ends of the receiving core and should see the bulk of the volume against the 30th-ranked coverage of Washington. Running back Kenneth Walker is also fully healthy, start him up for cash as Seattle’s bell cow in a touchdown-favored contest.
For Washington, it’s been the Sam Howell show. He’s risky, but no stranger to chucking the pigskin. Sam has thrown for well over 700 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games, can he make it three 300-yard games in a row? Watch the weather, if the rain shows up in Seattle, you may not want to take the jump on Howell or any of his pass-catchers, as the Seattle defense can be respectable at home. Otherwise, Johan Dotson and Terry McLaurin against the 25th-ranked Seattle coverage could be in store for a busy afternoon.
Cash Core
- Jared Goff
- Amon-Ra St.Brown
- Kenneth Walker
- Kyle Pitts
GPP Core
- Taylor Heinicke
- DK Metcalf
- Najee Harris
- Sam La Porta
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 10. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
