Joe DiCarlo 
Another week of NFL is in the books as we enter the second half of the season for DFS. Cash games were on the money for Week 8, as we stacked Jalen Hurts with AJ Brown, and then paid down at tight end with Trey McBride. But as we lose more teams to the byes and the KC/Miami contest is set up in Germany, our slate shrinks to ten games, but who’s complaining? The slate may look gross on paper with all the low totals, but there’s always money to be made fellas.
The field should sway mostly towards the Cowboys/Eagles contest as it’s the highest total on the slate. The salaries are inflated as usual on guys like CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Hurts, so will need to do a little dumpster diving on the less-popular games for value. As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.
Sunday Main Slate 11/5/23
Seahawks @ Ravens (-6) (O/U 43)
Lock: Lamar Jackson
Lamar is a no-brainer at home, but is he against this revamped defense of the Seahawks after trading for Leonard Williams? Jackson will be chalky with a high floor due to his rushing ability of course, but the Seattle DST ($2,400 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is a lot more appealing with Leonard on hand to pressure Lamar. But who else can we decide on for this match-up? Gus “The Bus” Edwards has cemented his role in the backfield after scoring four touchdowns in his last two starts, sign me up for cash games along with Zay Flowers. The rookie wideout should see plenty of Cover-3 from Seattle, which will eat up for lunch. Seattle’s secondary is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, which would also serve the Ravens’ top pass-catcher Mark Andrews well this week.
Seattle’s DK Metcalf is another household name who can make a statement this weekend on the road. He’s Geno’s first read, and if he gets dialed in, it could be a long day for Marlon Humphrey. Low ownership for Metcalf so far, so he’ll make a great GPP candidate.
Cardinals @ Browns (-8) (O/U 37.5)
Tight end Trey McBride had a coming-out party with his ten receptions to go along with 95 yards and a touchdown. Should we lock him in you ask? Not so fast. The stat line was connected to former Cardinals’ quarterback Josh Dobbs, who was traded to Minnesota. Instead of chasing McBride points, let’s focus on the Browns’ run game. The Cardinals were smacked six ways to Sunday by Baltimore last weekend on the ground (see Gus “The Bus) and by Kenneth Walker the week before. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt could clean up for Cash games this weekend at their affordable prices for DFS, let’s keep it simple in this game.
We don’t want to be too connected to the passing games of both teams this weekend, especially for cash games. The Cardinals still have not named a starting quarterback as of Friday evening and Deshaun Watson’s shoulder has been a mystery all season. Although I would be interested in the Browns’ DST if the Cardinals roll with rookie quarterback Clayton Tune for some potential turnovers.
Update: Deshaun Watson will play with no restrictions, Clayton Tune to start at QB.
Bears @ Saints (-7.5) (O/U 41.5)
Lock: Alvin Kamara
Another week without Justin Fields at quarterback spells disaster in fantasy for any Bears until further notice. Tyson Bagent has not been the answer and pedestrian filling in for Fields since Week 6, throwing only one touchdown to three interceptions. If I go anywhere near this game for pieces, they’ll be in black and gold uniforms for sure.
Derek Carr is in a spot to smash his salary once again for the third week in a row, as the field just gives him no love for fantasy. Simply safe for cash on this weak slate where he can easily get you 18 fantasy points against a Bears’ secondary (26th in DVOA against the pass) led by whipping boy Tyriique Stevenson. He’ll see a lot of Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, with some Rasheed Shaeheed as well. Of course, I won’t forget to mention Alvin Kamara, just saving the best for last. He’s risen to the top of the RB list on the slate because of his recent play. Even though tight end Taysom Hill has been culturing goal-line work< Kamara has still managed to average 22 FPTS/game on the receiving and rushing production alone since Week 4. If you can afford him, use Carr’s check-down champ.
Commanders @ Patriots (-3.5) (O/U 41)
I’ve got some serious strategies for my builds this weekend for DFS, and it will involve this stinker up in New England. I don’t see too many points being scored, but the football will be moved up and down the field. Let’s start on the Commanders’ side of the ball. Is Sam Howell the real deal, the dude threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, racking up 35 DK FPTS. For a mid-range quarterback on this slate, if he can put up half of what he did last week, we’ll be satisfied.
How about stacking Howell on this slate, wouldn’t that be fun? Terry McLaurin has been a target funnel for Howell, with 32 in his last three games all while putting up double-digit fantasy points and still a bargain as a mid-tier receiver. But wait a second, I’m not done just yet on the stack, we’ll need some runback options.
Now that we know Kendrick Bourne is done for the year and Devante Parker is already ruled out, the Pats will be a skeleton crew at receiving bodies. Demario Douglas, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson are all in the mix for this contest, and all are cap-space creators this weekend. Douglas is a lock for Cash as the defacto WR-1 in New England, so expect a ton of ownership from a guy who’ll be carving up Washington’s St.Juste beatable coverage.
Vikings @ Falcons (-4.5) (U/O 37.5)
Trust nobody in purple this weekend, since the Vikings are set on starting the rookie Jaren Hall at quarterback. Until newly acquired Josh Dobbs is ready to take over the keys to the high-octane Minnesota offense, we’ll play wait and see, or maybe look into using the Falcons DST, although Will Levis carved up Atlanta last week. Tread lightly.
On the brighter side of the field, welcome back Taylor Heinicke! We finally may see some of the Falcons receiving core put up some relevant and consistent numbers. It’s a shame Drake London will miss the Heinicke breakout this weekend, but Kyle Pitts and Van Jefferson are still there to pick up the pieces. The passing threat is also awesome news for Bijan Robinson, who may see fewer men in the box now that Ridder has finally hit the pine. Fire up some Falcons for GPP’s.
Rams @ Packers (-3.5) (O/U 38.5)
It’s Friday, and we still are not sure if Matt Stafford is playing. If he’s out, so are we on any Rams. We have no idea where the ball will be going out of Brett Rypien’s hands, and head coach Sean McVay always has something up his sleeve when it comes to his running backs, steer clear.
Now as bad as Jordan Love is at quarterback for the Packers, he still manages to scrape up some fantasy value. Either by his legs or tipped passes into the hands of his receivers, he should hit value against LA’s awful secondary (22nd in DVOA against the pass). Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Luke Musgrave all grade well against the Rams in their Cover-3 scheme especially when they blitz. Great GPP options.
Update: Matt Stafford is out
Colts @ Panthers (+2.5) (O/U 44)
When I first saw this game on the slate, the first thing that popped into my head was running backs, here are my backs for Sunday! Jonathon Taylor’s touches and role have increased every week since coming off the PUP, yet Zack Moss is still hanging around. Facing the dead-last rushing defense in the league, I think we get some closure on Taylor this week, start him up for cash. Indy is no run-stopper either as they rank 31st against opposing running backs. Carolina has a new sheriff in town, and Chuba Hubbard will be starting over Miles Sanders this week, we love his pricetag.
New Orleans obliterated the Colts’ secondary last weekend, it’ll be the Panthers’ turn this Sunday. They may also be down their best corner Ju Ju Brents, who is still not ready to return to game action. The passing core of Carolina gets an even larger upgrade, and Bryce Young with Jonathon Mingo could be Milli-Makers this weekend. Very affordable price tags as opposed to the veteran Adam Thielen, who has cheated Father Time by rejuvenating his career in Carolina. Thielen’s high salary makes him a GPP darling this week.
The Colts’ rookie Josh Downs continues to turn heads and lock eyes with Gardner Minshew. He has not let down fantasy managers yet this season, racking up 40REC/473YDS/2TDS. Grab him while he is still under $6K on DraftKings, as those days are approaching fast.
Bucs @ Texans (-2.5) (O/U 40)
This game is just not jumping out to me whatsoever sorry guys, but roster-able pieces are in this match-up. The total and spread simply scream a tight, close game. Baker Mayfield has had a man crush on Mike Evans since Week 1, along with tight end Cade Otton. Rightfully so for him to be dialed into the future Hall of Famer, who should eat well against the Texans’ zone and Cover-3 defense.
The Texans have already ruled out running back Dameon Pierce not that it matters, as neither he nor Devin Singletary has got anything done yet on the ground. It’s been the CJ Stroud and Nico Collins show or bust in Houston in 2023, don’t expect much more from an injury-prone Robert Woods again. Perhaps Dalton Schultz as a punt at tight end makes some sense as he has filled the stat sheet in the past.
Update: Dameon Pierce is out
Giants @ Raiders (-1.5) (O/U 37)
On to the afternoon segments, the recently freed Vegas Raiders of the Josh McDaniels regime host New York with a healthy Daniel Jones back in the lineup. It’s the battle of the highest-paid future backup quarterbacks now that Jimmy Garoppolo has been benched and Jones is not too far from that scenario. I love both running backs in their situations. Saquon owns almost the entire volume (85% opportunity share) and Josh Jacobs saw 11 targets the last time rookie Aidan O’Connell suited up in black and silver.
We also might finally see Davante Adams breakout from his slumber facing an atrocious secondary of Adoree Jackson and Diontae Banks. Adams is a GPP gem on a team that may be force-fed the ball by an interim coaching staff looking to keep it simple.
Cowboys @ Eagles (-3) (U/O 47)
Lock: Jalen Hurts
The main event of the slate, where all the ownership will flock to DFS this weekend. Pretty cut and dry here folks, we all know by now where to butter our bread in Philly, Jalen Hurts, and AJ Brown. The duo has connected on well over 100 receiving yards per game since Week 4, adding five touchdowns, while still being underpriced on DraftKings.
The Boys will need another big turnout from Dak, and against the Eagles’ beatable man coverage, it should be another CeeDee Lamb day. Lamb ran up the stat sheet with a 12 catch, 158 yards, and two touchdowns against the Rams last week, he faces the 32nd-ranked secondary in the City of Brotherly Love.
If you’re looking to stack and pivot in the highest-totaled game of the slate, go, with Jake Ferguson, and D’Andre Swift. Ferguson is number two in the league in red zone targets (12) and Swift never leaves the field in big games (12th in routes run)
Cash Core
- Derek Carr
- Jonathon Taylor
- Demario Douglas
- AJ Brown
GPP Core
- Sam Howell
- Jonathon Mingo
- Jake Ferguson
- Davante Adams
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 9. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
