Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 8

Welcome back to the Week 8 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a full 13-game slate with a wide variety of totals. Due to a lot of work travel this week, this will be a very brief article in more of a cheatsheet format. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 8:
– Miami Dolphins (28)
– Baltimore Ravens (27)
– Kansas City Chiefs (26.5)
– Dallas Cowboys (26)
– Philadelphia Eagles (25.5)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc.

High-Priced

• Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DK / $9,200 FD) – A pass-first offense against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Will Denver have enough fire power to keep this one close? I doubt it, but if they do, this is another great spot for Mahomes
• Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,200 FD) – My top quarterback on the slate against a dreadful Washington defense. The rushing upside and red-zone rushing boosts his floor higher than anyone.
• Dak Prescott ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) – More interested on DraftKings, but a nice value in the GPP space. The AETY Model loves Dak coming off of the bye against a weak Rams’ defensive unit.
• Joe Burrow ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – Burrow fresh off a bye week against a pass-funnel defense at sub 5% ownership? Sign me all the way up. How is Dak more expensive?

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Alvin Kamara ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)
• D’Andre Swift ($6,300 DK / $7,700 FD) – Crazy affordable for one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. I’m a big fan of rolling out the Hurts-Swift-Brown double stack this week.
• Isiah Pacheco ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD) – Cash game staple again this weekend. The usage is solid, yet confusing at times, but this is the most reliable “value” piece of the Chiefs’ offense.
• Bijan Robinson ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – I wouldn’t be able to stomach it in single entry contests, but if you’re looking to get crazy different against what was once a stout run defense, I can’t imagine a severely discounted Bijan garners over 5-8% ownership. Excellent pivot if you’re fading the slate favorite, Breece Hall.
• Breece Hall ($5,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – Great price. Great matchup.
• Dameon Pierce ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) – GPP only, but the best matchup for opposing running backs. I’ll roll the dice in tournaments that Pierce is still the top runner in the Houston backfield.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt (DK Only), Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• AJ Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,700 FD) – What else does he need to do to be priced up with Cooper Kupp?
• Puka Nacua ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Love Cooper Kupp as well, but might as well take the discount with Puka. It appears this game is going to be under-owned.
• CeeDee Lamb ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – No one is going to pay this much for a less-than-stellar (fantasy points wise) CeeDee Lamb. One of the top GPP targets of mine this week against the Rams’ struggling secondary.
• Chris Olave ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) – Our weekly pick on the Colts’ secondary play. Surprisingly, Olave’s usage in the slot is on the rise and this open up Michael Thomas ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) as a nice value target as well. Having said that, I’d still rather use Olave for the play-making upside when he is on the outside.
• Garrett Wilson ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – My second favorite GPP play on the board. Perfect leverage against the chalky Breece Hall and a perfect matchup for Mr. Wilson.
• Tee Higgins ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – GPP Only, but the AETY Model has a significant coverage advantage to Tee Higgins. At these prices, Higgins is a great value against a pass-funnel San Francisco defense.
• Zay Flowers ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – Dumb price. Cash game staple at the least.
• Nico Collins ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – DraftKings cash staple without Robert Woods.
  
  Punt-Values:
• Michael Gallup
• Demario Douglas

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Christian Watson, Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Tank Dell, Romeo Doubs

Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD) –It’s Travis Kelce. He’s by far and away the top tight-end on the slate per usual.
• Mark Andrews ($6,400 DK / $7,700 FD) – Preferred him last week at the discount and the coverage advantage. Won’t talk you off playing a top-tier tight-end.
• George Kittle ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD)
• Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD) – Great price and a nice coverage boost against the Steelers heavy Cover-1 usage.
• Trey McBride ($2,800 DK / $4,700 FD) – Not a great matchup, but the popular punt-play with Ertz on IR.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Jalen Hurts
• Isiah Pacecho
• Breece Hall
• Nico Collins
• Zay Flowers

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Joe Burrow
• Tee Higgins
• Ja’Maar Chase
• George Kittle

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.