We had a solid output in Week 7 as we hit on six of the top ten RB’s. Highly owned RB’s such as Kenneth Walker, Isiah Pacheco, and Jerome Ford paid off in a big way. But a low ownership play such as James Cook provided to pay dividends as well. Overall, I’ll hand out a B+ as the winning lineups in most GPP’s had both our primary RB’ (Gibbs and Ford). And six out of ten ain’t bad!

As we roll into Week 8, we’re back to a full slate as there are no byes this weekend. Therefore, we have 13 games on the main card meaning lots of options to choose from. After last night’s DraftCast, it’s clear to me there are good options across each of our tiers. While I don’t necessarily recommend spending up for RB’s, there are a few cases this week that make sense. But if you choose that route, you’ll have to pair those with a cheaper option on the board.

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I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $9200 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Three words for you this week: Brock Purdy Concussion. If you thought Kyle Shannahan was conservative in his passing game with a healthy Brock Purdy, wait until you see his gameplan this week. Purdy had only two games in 2022 where he was asked to throw more than 30 attempts. There’s just no way, especially coming off two consecutive losses and a concussion, that the 49ers HC will implement a pass happy gameplan this week. Then there’s other small factors such as Deebo Samuel missing another game (already ruled out) and the Bengals run defense being their weakness.

And about that Bengals D, they are ranked 27th in rushing defense DVOA. According to PFF, Cincy has the 4th worst rated run defense using their advanced metrics. They are allowing the 8th most rushing yards per game to RB’s at 100.5/game. As long as he checks out healthy, this is a smash spot for league’s most productive RB.

SAQUON BARKLEY $8000 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Another week and another good matchup for Saquon Barkley. The biggest issue for this spot is the game environment and pace as the Jets and Giants have the lowest total on the board at 36.5.

But what intrigues me here is the Jets have allowed the second most receptions to RB’s in the NFL. Per game, they are allowing an average of 6.8 receptions to backs. And Saquon has been an effective pass receiver reeling in 4 catches per week. Including one last week that went to the house. We are projecting 20+ touches once again for Barkley and considering he could see 5 or more targets makes him very valuable. Also, the Giants RB leads the NFL in snaps at 81% per game. This is a DraftKings only play based on that approach.

ALVIN KAMARA $7300 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

The Saints offense may stink. But Alvin Kamara is a fantasy wonder since his return from suspension. He’s averaging 21.7 DK points per game as seen no less than 24 touches in the last four games. He’s catching at an elite pace too with an absurd 8.8 catches per game which has propelled him to the leading RB in touches per game.

And he gets a smash spot this week by facing the Colts. Indy allows the 3rd most points per game in the NFL at 30.1. They also allow the 4th most fantasy points to RBs largely in part because they’ve allowed 10 rushing TDs, 2nd highest in the league. Taking it one step further, they are ranked 18th in rushing defense DVOA. Add it all up, and you have Kamara in pole position this week in the return on value market for RBs.

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7200 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Travis Etienne has the 3rd highest snap count (79.9%) for RBs and the third highest touches per game (21.6). He’s a workhorse for a Jacksonville offense that has finally found it’s footing. Since scoring just 26 points combined in Week’s 2 & 3, the Jags have averaged 29 points/game over their past four contests. This week they face the Steelers who are allowed the 13th most points in the league (21.1) and fourth most rushing yards (142.3).

Pittsburgh is allowing almost 5 yards per carry but they one area in where they’ve played good run D is in the passing game. To date, they’ve allowed the fewest catches to RBs with only 18 surrendered. But regardless of that last stat, the Jags have an implied team total of 21.5 points and will feature Etienne of ~80% of their snaps. Combine that with a defense that does allow chunk plays on the ground and we have a good reason to deploy Etienne this weekend in the Steel City.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6300 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

The Eagles faced the Commanders once this year already. And they escaped that game with an OT victory. Point is, the Eagles will have full attention to this game as they’ve already been pushed to the brink once by Washington. And with the 2nd overall run block unit, according to PFF, they will look to exploit their advantage at the line of scrimmage. While Washington is ranked 15th in rush defense DVOA, they have allowed 100+ yards rushing in 6 straight games. And the only game they didn’t allow 100 yards rushing this season was in Week 1 against Arizona, where they allowed 96.

Swift had success against Washington in Week 4 where he scored 17.6 fantasy points. He caught four balls in that game which is on par to what the Commanders average per week. Add that to his average of 16 carries per game over the past six weeks and we have potential for 20+ touches. Good enough for me at a reasonable price for a high upside RB.

JONATHAN TAYLOR $6200 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

He’s back! It took a few weeks but Taylor eclipsed Moss in touches and snaps last week for the first time this season. We’re getting a Tier 1 RB for the price of a low Tier 2 back. That is just too good to match up regardless of the matchup. But speaking of matchup, the Saints have the 14th best rushing defense according to DVOA. Even more interesting, according to DVOA, they haven’t faced a rushing attack inside the top 14 in the league. In fact, they’ve faced four of the seven worst rushing attacks in the league. The Colts have the best rushing offense the Saints have played to date, ranking 6th in DVOA. For those reasons, and the projection Taylor will see an even bigger role, this is one of my favorite spots on the slate.

ISIAH PACHECO $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Denver is either last or next to last in almost all rushing defense metrics. They allow the most points to fantasy RBs and the most rushing yards per game, at 167.3. The question this week will be the weather as temperatures are supposed to be below 30 degrees by kickoff. And there could be 6-8 inches of snow. Crazy to think as we sit here with 80 degree weather on the East Coast.

But the snow doesn’t concern me as Pacheco will be able to hit holes and gain his yards on the ground. The issue will be his role in the receiving game which be reduced due to weather. But he’s still in play for me, but I may bring down my exposure by a few lineups because of the snow.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

BIJAN ROBINSON $6000 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

Coach Arthur Smith is a joke. But he somehow won the game last week while giving his 1st round pick just one carry. You can play the narrative that he was sick all you want but I question why he was dressed and on the sidelines. Can’t eat your soup and drink your ginger ale while suited up.

But I think we’re in for a big bounce back this week. Bijan’s salary has dropped by 20% and owners are going to be leery of playing this game again after last weeks’ disappointment. And he’s facing Tennessee who has a top 10 rushing defense. All signs point to low ownership which means this is a good spot to get different with one of the best runners in the league.

BREECE HALL DraftKings $5900 FanDuel $6600

This will be a very popular play this week. But if the Jets are serious about winning, they will ensure Breece Hall sees plenty of touches. That’s because the Giants are 30th in rushing defense DVOA. And they’ve allowed the 2nd most rushing yards this season at 857. Hall has taken the lead role at RB, averaging 60% of the snaps and 75% of the touches the past two weeks.

KAREEM HUNT DraftKings $5200 FanDuel $6600

Kareem Hunt is primed to see a lion’s share of the touches this week for Cleveland as they travel to Seattle. The Seahawks have been solid against the run, but that’s primarily due to their pass defense being one of the worst in the league. Meanwhile, Hunt has averaged 15.6 fantasy points over the last two weeks and that’s on just an average of 12 touches per game. Assuming we see 15+ touches, Hunt has a chance for 4-5x value this week.

RB PROP BETS

TBD

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