Dave Gloeckner 
We sit here today on the eve of the 2023-24 NBA Opening Day. I’ve dropped several articles documenting the betting market for individual awards. However, today, we turn our attention to team performance. It’s one of my favorite articles to write for each season, and if you haven’t done so already, feel free to check out my past Team Win Totals columns for MLB and NFL (a total of 16-4 across those sports in the past two years).
And much like the other sports, my approach to NBA Team Win Totals is similar:
- Look at a team’s delta in wins between actual and projected.
- Assess the team’s performance in close games, or as the NBA calls it, clutch games.
- Examine team changes, including coaches and players, to see if that impacts their projected performance.
I then roll those facts up into a projected win total, weigh it against the Vegas odds, and let the model pump out our best plays.
So, with that said, let’s begin the fun as I present you with my favorite NBA Team Win Totals bets for the 2023-24 season.
Team Win Total Factors
Instead of diving into the land of my overall metrics and how I create my models. I’ll point out some fascinating notes.
#1 Pythagorean Wins
If you’ve read my other articles, this is a staple of determining if a team overperformed or underperformed based on their offensive and defensive numbers. What stands out right away is the number one team in the NBA last season, the Milwaukee Bucks, had the largest win differential in the league (*win differential explained as actual wins vs Pythagorean wins). The Bucks won 58 games, but their Pythagorean Wins were 50. Does anyone recall what happened to the Bucks in the playoffs last year? Maybe the win differential, i.e., playing over their potential, had something to do with that.
The team with the greatest underperforming act of the NBA season was the Detroit Pistons. Their predicted win fell at 22, but they managed to win just 17 games. Could that be considered tanking or just bad luck? I prefer to think the latter and will get into that more below.
But the case is, win differential based on Pythagorean Win totals is a significant factor in forecasting future wins.
#2 Clutch Game Performance
Clutch games are those within 5 points or less with under 5 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Teams that perform well here typically have high win totals. But once we do over a certain threshold, defined to me as one standard deviation from the data, we start to build a case for this number being unsustainable year-to-year. It’s like the MLB data point of record in one-run games. Yes, you must be clutch to win those, but it can’t be sustained at a 70% clip or more.
For example, the Phoenix Suns led the league in Clutch Game Win % in 2021-22 with a 78.6% win rate. They won 64 games that season. They also lost in the Western Conference semifinals, showing some of their good fortune may have been exhausted. Additionally, they returned to earth in 2022-23, winning just 45 games and posting a 47.2% Clutch Game Win Rate. Those were significant drop-offs from one year to the next.
#3 Roster Changes
Lastly, looking at roster construction is essential. One team that improved dramatically last year was the New York Knicks. One of their biggest jumps was in Clutch Win Rate %, where they went from 40.1% in 2021-22 to 50.2% in 2022-23. Even a casual observer could note the change was attributed to their offseason signing of Jalen Brunson. The Knicks PG finished 5th in the league in Clutch Time points, scoring an average of 4.0 per game.
DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 53.5 Wins (-110 DK)
Let’s just start this article off with a big splash and talk about the reigning NBA Champions. Denver dominated the regular season and playoffs last year which was a giant leap for this organization and team since they had previously not made it out of the 2nd round with Nikola Jokic (unless you count the Bubble season where they made it to the West Conf Finals). And everything went just right for Denver as they faced two #8 seeds and a #7 seed along the way. Again, that’s not taking anything away from the Nuggets glorious season, they were by far the best team in the NBA, but it definitely came with some fortune.
And here’s the thing, the Nuggets could easily repeat this season. They are that talented and have a roster that is deep and balanced. But even in a championship season, they overperformed their win projection by 4 games. And they had the 5th highest Clutch Game Win % at 59.5. As for the offseason, they lost key contributors Bruce Brown, to the Indiana Pacers, and Jeff Green, to the Houston Rockets. They were able to sign G Justin Holiday who will look to compete for one of the top reserve spots with 2nd year G Christian Braun. So not much changed and the core is still intact which is positive, but also somewhat daunting considering their perceived overachievement in 2023.
The last point I’ll make is this, I looked at the past four teams coming off an NBA championship: Toronto Raptors (18-19), Milwaukee Bucks (19-20), LA Lakers (20-21), and Golden State Warriors (21-22). Each team had a lower winning percentage the next year. For those that played back-to-back 82 game seasons (20-21 was shortened with COVID), the average drop in wins was 7. A lot of that has to do with the toll it takes on players to play into June (while most take off in April). This will be Denver’s first test following such a long season and I believe they’ll fall in line with the past winners. There is merit to a hangover and while the crown is still a mile high in the sky, the Nuggets will regress enough in the regular season to make this bet a winner.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS OVER 47.5 Wins (-120 DK)
The Warriors dropped off significantly last year as they won 9 games less than their championship season of 2021-22. Some of it was due to injury, as their star Steph Curry missed 26 games, the 2nd most of his 14 year career. The other part of the Splash Brothers, Klay Thompson, missed 13 games though the Warriors were ecstatic with him playing 69 games after missing 1.5 seasons prior. But the true issue with the Warriors was team chemistry. A preseason video at practice caught a squabble, then fight, between Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. The incident injured Poole but also completely destroyed the trust in each other. So much so, the Warriors sent Poole to Washington in the offseason to help cleanse the locker room.
Which brings us to this year, one in which they added veteran Chris Paul to bring leadership as well as consistent play off the bench. And remember, this team won 44 games last season with all the turmoil and injuries stacked against them. So now we’re just asking them to win four more games. They won 53 just two seasons ago and still have the firepower, and coaching, to make a run at the title again.
Finally last season’s metrics have them underachieving in win total by 1.5 games. They were also 15th in the league in Clutch Win %, winning under 50% of close games. With the firepower on the roster, plus the potential for four HOF’s, this team will drastically improve it’s clutch game performance this season simply by playing more together. The Warriors aren’t dead yet, and they have some whiteboard motivation in the locker room that they’ll use to be a factor once again.
MIAMI HEAT UNDER 45.5 WINS -110 DK
The Heat have Jimmy. And that’s important come playoff time. It’s the regular season where this team finds struggles. Last year, that was due to inconsistent play from key starters as well as injuries. Because of that, the Heat were forced to have 26 different starting lineups. Let that sink in. They had a different starting lineup every 3rd game.
And if we look back at recent season, Miami has exceeded 45 wins just once in the past seven years. Even last season, they looked lost at times and mustered 44 wins before putting it all together and pushing to the NBA Finals. And speaking of last season, they allowed more points than they scored which was more reflective of a 40 win team. They also won almost 60% of their close (i.e. clutch time) games.
The factors show this team vastly overperformed. While they have a great coach and a reliable superstar, their roster is still stuck in neutral. They did little in FA as their offseason was hitched to Damian Lillard who ended up in Milwaukee. In the end, the Heat are a force come April and May. But between now and then, they will struggle to get to 45 wins. I’ll take the under.
NEW YORK KNICKS OVER 44.5 WINS -110 DK
The Knicks are back baby! New York advanced to the 2nd round of the playoffs for the first time in a decade. They upset the favored Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round based on their defensive tenacity and efficient guard play. Now they look to take that a step further as they keep the core roster and added NCAA and NBA Champion Donte DiVincenzo. Keep in mind that the Knicks were 17-8 after adding F Josh Hart.
From a metrics standpoint, the Knicks won 47 games but had a Pythagorean win total of 48 meaning they underperformed by a small margin. They also won 51% of their clutch games, which could rise significantly this year with another year under Jalen Brunson’s leadership.
In short, there is more room for this team to grow. Can they get to the top 2 teams, probably not as they’re still a star or key contributor away. But can they challenge for the 3 or 4 seed, absolutely.
INDIANA PACERS OVER 38.5 WINS -110 DK
The Pacers improved their win total last season by 10 wins from their 2021-22 number. And they look to make another progressive step forward this season and challenge for a playoff spot. The pieces are there, as they’ve built a young nucleus with seasoned veterans. Led by Tyrese Halliburton, who became an All-Star for the first time last season, they have a budding superstar who is still getting better.
The Pacers added good veteran depth this offseason as they acquired NBA Champion Bruce Brown and exciting wingman Obi Toppin. They also had two first-round picks in which they acquired Jarace Walker and Ben Sheppard. Add that to a few budding talents, like Ben Mathurin, and defensive stoppers, like Myles Turner, and this roster is one of the deeper ones in the East.
One last thing to consider is the Pacers finished 26-22 when Halliburton and Turner played together. Their pace was tough for other teams to compete with as they had depth to keep running all game. Expect Indiana to push for a playoff spot this year and in doing so fly past their season win total.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS UNDER 28.5 WINS -110 DK
I’ve been waiting for the Blazers to tear it down. They have been stuck in neutral for years and could never build a championship roster around Lillard. Watching Dame Time fade away in his latter years and play meaningless games was painful. But they finally made the move and have now made it clear, the rebuild mode starts now.
With that, they have a totally new roster starting with their prized draft pick Scoot Henderson. They’ve also added C De’Andre Ayton and G Malcolm Brogdon to the fold. Combine that with guards Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons and we have a team of shoot first minded players. So while there’s talent, it’s going to take time for the Blazers to decide how it fits and gels best. And being that this is a rebuild and transition year, I expect them to take their lumps while doing so.
And the fact of the matter is, the Blazers have the worst roster in the West. In a conference loaded with stars, Portland will struggle to compete night in and night out.
DETROIT PISTONS OVER 27.5 WINS -110 DK
The Pistons have been slowly building talent in the Motor City, but haven’t been able to see it all on the court at the same time. Injuries to key young players such as Killian Hayes, Cade Cunningham, and Isaiah Stewart has slowed down the organizational growth. So much so, that the Pistons ended up with just 17 wins in 2023, the least in the NBA. But with that comes equity and the Pistons received a top 5 draft pick which they used on athletic wingman Ausar Thompson. With a crowded frontcourt, the Pistons were in need of some depth on the wing.
The other piece of good news for the Pistons is they brought in a winner. After a disappointing end to the season, Phoenix surprisingly fired HC Monty Williams. Over the past three seasons, all he did was win at the highest rate in the NBA, 0.678. But crucial losses in the playoffs don’t sit well for fans in the desert. The Suns loss is the Pistons gain as Williams is a respected leader who can get the best out of any roster.
Lastly, over the past two seasons the team with the worst Clutch Win % had an average turnaround of +7 wins the following year. And you guessed it, Detroit was the worst in the clutch last year posting a 29.5% win rate. Add in a healthy Cunningham, and that number should skyrocket. Getting 11 extra wins will be a tough chore. But with a future NBA All-Star back in the lineup, and a top 10 coach in the league manning the team, the Pistons have a very good chance to surprise people this year.
