Dave Gloeckner 
I haven’t been this excited for an MLB Opening Day since, well last year. But really, I’m stoked for the start of baseball this year because of the many storylines we have as well as, to me, another potential for a wide-open season of contenders. Going into 2023, who would have predicted a Texas Rangers versus Arizona Diamondbacks World Series matchup? Which is great for the sport as it’s always been top heavy with the haves (the big spenders). While we still have a large competitive imbalance due to the Dodgers just monopolizing the free agent market, there are roughly 10 teams that have a serious chance of winning the WS. With a few other on the fringe that could get there with a meteoric rise from their farm system or a blockbuster trade mid-year.
This year, both Jared and I will be posting articles and have a central focus on both betting and DFS. Today we’re pushing out two articles because it’s Opening Day and we have so much to talk about. Make sure to check in daily for our articles and engage with us and the community in Discord.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
Early season betting can always be tough to navigate as we don’t have any live data to assess. Instead, we have to work off different elements including last season as well as player movement information. But it’s also a time where the market can be had as they are doing the same data mining as us and setting conservative lines. So, I built an early season power rankings based off three major models; Elo Ratings at the end of last season, Vegas Projected Win Totals converted to a rating, and FanGraphs/Baseball Prospectus team WAR data converted to a rating. That Preseason Power Ranking is shown below:
There are some surprises in hear as Arizona is ranked 15th overall after making the World Series last year. Then there are some sentimental favorites making noise, such as the Tigers and Reds, who fall in the bottom 3rd. This will move based on team performance. Last year, Arizona moved up to 5th in the ranking in June from preseason 19th. So don’t be alarmed now if your team isn’t high on the list because that’s why they play the games!
Using the above, we’re able to at least develop estimated moneyline odds for today’s games. And from there, we’ve selected a few games that standout when compared to Vegas lines:
CINCINNATI REDS -155 vs WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Speaking of the Reds, I believe. Technically speaking, I believe only if Hunter Greene can stay attached mentally for 162 games, Nick Lodolo can stay upright, and the offense can continue it’s bashing. Probably a lot of “ifs” in there but the Reds have quietly built a solid pitching staff. And they boast a young and talented core on offense led by Elly De La Cruz. I like the signing of Jemier Candelario and turns out they’ll need him even more with budding star Noelvi Marte suspended for the first 80 games of the season. And keep an eye on OF’s Will Benson and TJ Friedl this year as they will outperform their 2023 numbers.
But this pick today, while mostly about the offense of the Reds, is also about the Nats. They surprised many last year by finishing the season with 71 wins. They are starting Josiah Gray today who was able to lower his home run allowance last year, but at the sacrifice of his strikeouts. He went from a career 9.5 K/9 down to 8.09 K/9 last season. And his xERA actually jumped to 5.03 (from his career averaged of 4.35). But his ERA went down almost 1.5 runs to 3.91. We can say he was rather fortunate to post career low in ERA based on some of the peripherals.
On offense, WAR projects the Nationals to have the 4th worst lineup ahead of just the White Sox, Athletics and Rockies. While last year brought some optimism, I could see this year being a very tough season in our Nation’s capital. But at least they’ll be out of the Patrick Corbin deal in 2025!
There’s hope and optimism in Cincinnati and I’m going to back that with a win today. Afterall, baseball is supposed to start in Cincy so let’s start it with a W for us.
PROJECTED LINE: Reds -190
SAN DIEGO PADRES -115 vs SAN FRANCICSO GIANTS
There’s something to be said about a team that’s already played two games before Opening Day. One could say they may have jetlag. But on the other hand, I like the fact they’ve already played meaningful games and exuded the adrenaline and game strategy that is miles different from Spring Training games. The Giants are a sexy pick to make the playoffs this year, especially with their most recent addition of 2023 NL Cy Young Winner Blake Snell. Who used to play for the team he’s facing today. But instead, they’re rolling out the runner up in the 2023 NL Cy Young Award in Logan Webb today. Webb is looking to build off his best season as he threw over 200 innings for the first time in his career and posted a solid 3.25 ERA.
The Padres are sending Yu Darvish to the dish today. And while he did have a down season last year, so did all of San Diego. He posted a 4.56 ERA but his FIP was 4.03 and xERA was 3.82. He’s had two prior full season with an ERA of 4.0 or higher, and in the next year, he dropped his ERA by an average of 1.1 runs. I also like that he’s already pitched a game and stretched out his arm against real competition.
Ultimately, I’m taking the Padres based on our expected outcome. Add in the fact that Webb’s ERA on the road last year was 2 runs higher than his home splits (4.31 compared to 2.26) and Darvish’s home ERA was 0.6 runs lower than his road numbers. Two pitchers, and really two teams, with different splits and expectations.
PROJECTED LINE: Padres -137
DOG OF THE DAY: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +155 at DETROIT TIGERS
The White Sox are considered by most to be the worst team in baseball. And they decided to double down on that by trading their one premium asset in Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres. Still under team control for 2 years, they saw theis year as the best time to get the most value in a package. And if the season submarines, we could see other big-name players on teh move (think Robert or Jimenez).
As for the Tigers, they have seen the downside of the AL Central for many years and can empathize with the White Sox. But their turn upwards started last season and now there’s hope and promise in Detroit. And that starts with today’s SP Tarik Skubal, who if you’ve read my articles the past 2 years know my affinity for the southpaw. He’s raised many eyebrows hitting near 99mph on the gun this spring, and has jumped to top 4 in AL Cy Young betting.
However, I’m betting the unknown today as the White Sox are starting SP Garrett Crochet. Crochet is a young lefty flamethrower that has zero career starts in the MLB. He has pitched in the majors, but just in relief roles. He could top the radar at 100mph in that role but will likely be a few mph lower as a starter. But he’s a mystery and could show up well today facing a team twice through a lineup for the first time.
It’s a dog so the probability of cashing in lower. But we’ll take the 0.5 unit play on the South Siders to pull off an upset on the field and in the books as 88% of the money on the ML is pouring in on Detroit.
PROJECTED LINE: White Sox +120
PLAYER PROPS
CORBIN BURNES under 6.5 K’s (-110 DK)
I hate unders. I really do. But the start of the season is really tricky when it comes to projecting number of pitches that each team will allow their starters to throw. And the reality is, Burnes is not the strikeout pitcher he was in 2020 and 2021. His last two seasons has seen his K rate drop by at least 5% each year. From his peak of 36.7% in 2020, he posted a 25.5% K rate last year. Additionally, in his last two starts on Opening Day he racked up a combined 7 K’s. He averaged 85 pitches in those starts and I expect to see similar today. It’s cold and wet in Baltimore which could affect grip pressure and more. I love the O’s to win this game handily, but expect Burnes to stay under his K prop.
WYATT LANGFORD over 0.5 Hits (-190 DK) and 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
If you haven’t heard the name Wyatt Langford yet, then you will hear it very often starting today. The presumed Rookie of the Year in the AL had a meteoric rise in the system. From being drafted #4 overall in the 2023 draft, to making an Opening Day roster, he’s been on the eyes of many and today it will be many more.
Langford hit 0.365 this spring with six homeruns (2nd in MLB). While he opens against a tough pitcher in Justin Steele today, the rookie batters can often have an upper hand on pitchers and I’m going to ride that today. His hit and TB prop is juicy. But I’m going to play that but also add a small bet on his HRR prop.
PLUS MONEY PROP OF THE DAY: DAULTON VARSHO over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+700 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Varsho was a disappointment last year for the Blue Jays. But he’s made a commitment to flatten his swing and get more active on the base paths. That showed during spring training as he led all baseball with 8 stolen bags. I got to see firsthand his aggressive approach and think that will translate into today’s game against the Rays. While Zach Eflin is tough to steal on, he did allow 8 runners to steal last year. And the Jays know they have to find more ways to score runs after their latest post-season debacle.
DFS
Today I’m deferring to Jared’s article, Aces and Bases, for all DFS plays including stacks.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.
