The NBA season is fast approaching, and it’s one of the more anticipated ones in recent years. Several big trades highlighted the offseason, including the recent deal that sent Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks. But there’s also a shiny new rookie class ready to debut. A draft class that has whispers of being the best since 2003. That epic night of rookie selections brought us the following stars and long-term vets:

• 1^st Pick: Lebron James (High School)
• 3^rd Pick: Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse)
• 4^th Pick: Chris Bosh (Georgia Tech)
• 5^th Pick: Dwayne Wade (Marquette)
• 6^th Pick: Chris Kaman (CMU)
• 18^th Pick: David West (Xavier)
• 47^th Pick: Mo Williams (Alabama)
• 51^st Pick: Kyle Korver (Creighton)

Of course, other players, such as Kirk Hinrich, Josh Howard, and Zaza Pachulia, provided value. But the top of the list is where teams hit home runs (except for Detroit, who picked Darko). That’s where this 2023 NBA Draft Class strengths lie, having the ultimate star power and a unicorn, like Lebron in 2003, in Victor Wembanyama. Following him are players with All-Pro potential, such as Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson (like Melo and Wade). Beyond that, there are All-Star caliber players up and down the first two rounds who could turn into stars if allowed to grow.

There have been other outstanding drafts since 2003, like 2009 with Curry and Harden and 2011 with Kyrie, Kawhi, Klay, and Jimmy. But the 2003 draft was special and best mirrors the structure and potential for star power in the 2023 NBA Draft Class. 

This brings us to today’s article featuring the NBA FUTURES BETTING guide for Rookie of the Year. While it looks like a shoo-in with the odds heavily favoring one player, we’ll give you the bets we most like to hold up the hardware at the end of this season.

ROOKIE OF YEAR HISTORY AND STATS

Before all that, I wanted to give you a glimpse into the recent history of the award. Since 2000, we’ve had twenty-three No. 1 picks, yet only six have turned that into Rookie of the Year. Most notably, the six that did receive the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy following their rookie seasons were Lebron James, Derek Rose, Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Paolo Banchero.

As shown, some candidates became potential Hall-Of-Famers but didn’t win ROY, such as Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard. The primary reason that those two ended up as bridesmaids was due to their scoring. Each player averaged less than 13.5 ppg and got outclassed by other players with more volume. That made me consider how scoring impacted ROY voting, and I was able to find the following data:

• Since 2000, 15 of the 23 rookie leading scorers won NBA ROY (65%)
• Since 2000, five of the eight rookies that averaged over 20 ppg won NBA ROY (63%)
• Since 2019, three of the five rookie leading scorers won NBA ROY (60%)
• Since 2010, 10 of the 14 rookie leading scorers won NBA ROY (71%)
• Since 2000, only three NBA ROY’s have averaged less than 15 ppg (87%)

As you can see, even in an advanced metrics day and age, being able to score is a primary factor in determining rookie of the year.

But I also wanted to look at two other metrics impacting ROY voting: USAGE RATE and TEAM WINS. These two go hand-in-hand since good players on bad teams will have an accelerated or increased usage rate. So, starting with Usage Rate, I was able to come up with this information:

• Since 2000, only 3 of the 23 ROY winners had a usage rate under 20%. And all 3 of those players were on teams that made the playoffs.
• Since 2000, only two players who won ROY and made the playoffs had usage rates over 20%: Derek Rose and Ben Simmons. Note Ben Simmons’s Rookie Year was Joel Embiid’s first season playing over 30 games.

From a Team Wins standpoint, having a successful team usually means lower usage. It also involves the player needing more opportunities to put up numbers that compare to his counterparts. Speaking directly, here are some facts about the team win totals of the recent winners of the award:

• Since 2000, the team the ROY played for had an average wins ranking of 22^nd.  The average win total for all 23 teams was 32.
• Since 2010, 10 of the 14 teams the ROY played for ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in team wins.
• Since 2000, there have been 10 ROYs that had usage rates over 25%. None of those players won more than 35 games. And the average record of those 10 ROYs was 28-54.

So now that we’ve collected specific data and built some areas to attack, we can whittle down who will get the proper usage and put up enough points to be considered for ROY. The primary data sets I used were:

• Don’t automatically assume the #1 pick will get ROY.
• Look for players that are projected to score more than 15 ppg.
• Look at the odds for the highest-scoring rookies.
• Do not take anyone from a projected playoff team unless there is a rare situation (i.e., Embiid playing an entire season in Simmon’s rookie year, Malcolm Brogdon’s weak class due to Simmon’s injury, etc).
• Consider teams with bad defenses that will play at a higher pace and, therefore, have higher usage rates.

Now that we have our data and identified key factors, I bring you my top bets for 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year.

SCOOT HENDERSON +250 DK

The #2 pick in the draft is my favorite bet to win NBA Rookie of the Year this season. This is a classic situation of a ball-dominant player with a projected high usage rate on one of the worst NBA teams. I ran to the window when these odds initially opened at +450. And now that the Damian Lillard trade is complete, it has paved the way for Henderson to be one of the primary ballhandlers and scorers on the Blazers team.

Speaking of the Lillard trade, the return was big men (Ayton and Robert Williams) and draft picks. This preserved the current backcourt featuring Henderson, Sharpe, and Simons. Looking at recent situations similar to Portland is Memphis from 2019-2020 when Ja Morant won ROY. That season, Memphis traded away PG Mike Conley in the preseason to pave the way for Ja. Even more interesting was roster construction where Morant had big men Jae Crowder, Jaren Jackson Jr, Jonas Valancuinas, and Brandon Clarke. That allowed Morant to share the backcourt with Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones, two up-and-coming players similar to Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons in Portland. That propelled Morant to hit our key usage rate metric of 25.9% (>25%).

The other factor to consider is the Blazers have the 2nd lowest win total on the board at 28.5. So, barring any miracles, Scoot will play for one of the bottom teams in the league. And that will increase his odds of putting up minutes and stats.
Finally, the Blazers ended last season with the 3rd worst defensive rating, trailing only Houston and San Antonio. Adding De’Andre Ayton and subtracting Jusuf Nurkic will help keep that defensive rating in this range. I expect the Blazers to again be a poor defensive team thus upping their pace.

Scoot Henderson is the real deal and feels disrespected by not being picked number one. He will have every opportunity to use that as motivation while Portland tries to reshape a long overdue roster needing a facelift.

CHET HOLMGREN +300 DK

Do not sleep on Chet Holmgren. Yes, that Chet Holmgren who was drafted in 2022 with the 2nd overall pick. He has rookie eligibility in 2023-24 due to missing the entire season last year with a leg injury. The Thunder played him cautiously this preseason. But we could see flashes of the promise he has packaged inside the 7’1″ frame of his. Chet averaged 20.5 ppg and 9.5 rebounds per game in the Vegas summer league. He excelled in pick-and-roll action, and that was without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander running the point. Imagine what it will look like with the All-NBA guard controlling the action.

The issue with Holmgren will be his usage rate as the Thunder have a playoff team with several players that will be ball dominant such as SGA (32.5% usage) and Josh Giddey (24.7% usage). However, of the six ROYs since 2000 that have made the playoffs, their average usage rate has been 20.2%. And looking at the remaining Thunder usage rates last season, there is plenty of reason to believe Chet can average over 20% usage which puts him in good territory for winning teams.

The other factor to consider is this: in the last 15 years, two players have won Rookie of the Year a full season after they were drafted due to injury in their rookie seasons: Ben Simmons and Blake Griffin. There is something to players sitting out an entire season and being able to mature with their teammates that gives them a leg-up on their competition the following season.

Before Wemby there was Chet. Two unicorns that have a unique skill set for their size. However, Chet is in the shadows of Wembanyama, which may make things even easier for him to thrive in OKC. Lastly, Holmgren has that dog in him. He doesn’t lack confidence and is willing to let you know about it. That always helps when trying to build your brand and, more importantly, your candidacy for ROY.

CAM WHITMORE +2000 DK

Cam Whitmore was a big story on NBA Draft Night as he fell out of the lottery and dropped all the way to Pick #20 and the Houston Rockets. Once considered a can’t miss prospect that would be drafted in the top 10, Whitmore’s stock plummeted due to poor interviews and pre-draft workouts. So he used that as fuel to motivate himself to prove teams wrong that passed on him on Draft Night. And with that, he turned the Summer League into his playground as he was named MVP and took the Rockets to the finals.

The talent is unquestionable, and he’s in a good situation in Houston, where there is a solid mix of young talent and veteran presence. The biggest issue with Whitmore will be playing time and usage. Houston’s backcourt is crowded with Jalen Green, Fred Van Vleet, and Dillon Brooks. And on the wings, he’ll have to compete with Jabari Smith Jr, Tari Eason, and Jae’Sean Tate.

But I profile this similar to Malcolm Brogdon’s situation in Milwaukee in 2016-17. He wound up with the lowest usage rate of anyone who has won the award this century, with an 18.5% mark. But his shooting percentage, PER, and well-rounded stats gave voters enough information to vote him as ROY.

This is absolutely an uphill battle for Whitmore. But we’ve seen prior Summer League MVPs excel and win ROY, including Damian Lillard and Blake Griffin. At 20-1 odds, it’s worth a small play as Whitmore has the talent, and if things break right, he could have the opportunities under new HC Ime Udoka.

KEYONTE GEORGE +3000 DK

Of all the rookies that opened people’s eyes in the Summer League, Keyonte George caught my attention the most. He was smooth with the ball and unfazed under pressure. He also displayed a beautiful jumper. And more importantly, he flashed elite athleticism. Unfortunately, his campaign ran short after a scare where he twisted his knee. Utah wisely shut him down, but they already had enough film to know they have a gem in George.

The case for George is simple. He is playing on a team that is not projected to make the playoffs. The Utah Jazz have the 7^th lowest win total in Vegas with an over/under of 35.5 wins. He will have every opportunity to break into the rotation in the Jazz backcourt with only Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson sitting ahead of him on the depth chart.

Utah also had a poor defensive team in 2023-24, ranking 24^th in defensive rating, and didn’t do much to improve that in the offseason. The Jazz also played at a good pace, ranking 11^th in the pace of play in the NBA last season. These are significant factors that will drive up opportunities for the rookie.

While this is another long shot, I saw enough from the 16^th pick in the draft to know he can be special. The Jazz rookie was recently quoted as saying “I want to win Rookie of the Year”. Those who set high expectations will often perform to them. Give me a player with the confidence and the skillset that George has and I’ll take 30-1 odds all day.

VICTOR WEMBANYAMA +100 DK

I’ll end with NBA’s most hyped rookie since Lebron James. The Frenchman has one of the most unique set of skills seen on a basketball court. He can dribble like a PG, shoot like a SG, but defend and own the paint like a Center. He resembles Kevin Durant, but is taller and may have even deeper range.

As much as I can’t wait to see Wembanyama play, I will not be betting him for ROY at these short odds. Head Coach Greg Popovich knows it’s not about awards but instead about developing the generational talent he has. Pop is the biggest wild card in this whole adventure and I’m not willing to back an HC who had only one player average over 30 minutes per game last season. Will Wemby be special? I have no doubt. Will I let even money sit for 7 months? Nope, not even with the upside bottled in that 7’4″ package.