It was a hot and cold week for the RBs in Week 4. After staring at the report card, I’d grade the Week 4 Report as a B. The hot part was smoking as our Tier 1 RBs, Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs, combined for 79.6 DK points and were two of the top four RBs on the board. The cold part was most everything else, as only James Cook and Jaylen Warren were recommended backs that returned a 2x value or more.

Looking ahead to Week 5, four teams are on bye, so our set of available games is ten this week. And that makes Tier 1 very light as there are only three RBs with salaries over $7K. As always, the backs will play a significant role in your lineups, but this week, we’ll have to capitalize in Tiers 2 and 3.

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I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8100 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

Advocating Barkley all hinges on his ankle and how it feels going into Sunday. But if he’s cleared to play, he has a great matchup waiting in the Miami Dolphins. For one, the Giants are a hot mess and were embarrassed on MNF last week. Daniel Jones was sacked 11 times and barely had any clean pockets to throw from. Teams can do that when there is no threat in the running game to help slow down the pass rush and prevent teams from bringing blitzes. The Giants know this, and the best way to create time in the passing game is to establish the run. Which they will be very focused on doing this week.

And the other factor to consider is the Dolphins and their porous run defense. The Dolphins are ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA. Additionally, they’ve allowed the 8th most fantasy points to RBs this season and the 4th most touchdowns. The biggest issue is the game script. But if the Giants play with better balance, there is an opportunity for Saquon to put up 20+ points. He is in my player pool for that reason alone, but I have better options below.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7700 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

Bijan Robinson is that dude. He runs with power and agility. And while he’s received over 75% of the carries over the past three weeks and is in the top 8 in touches, Atlanta still needs to find him the ball more. That’s because he is just 22nd in the league in carries, trailing Josh Kelly and Alexander Mattison. Factor into that: the Falcons are 31st in passing offense DVOA and have struggled to move the ball consistently through the air (unless it’s to Bijan, who leads the team in receptions).

This week, the Falcons will have a chance to commit to the run early and often as they take on the Houston Texans and their 28th-ranked rushing defense, according to DVOA. While Houston has improved against the run, ranking 19th in rushing yards allowed, most of that has been due to their opponents in recent weeks. The Steelers and Jags rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in rushing totals. And both teams average just 3.6 ypc, which comes in as T7th in the NFL.

The most significant difference between these two teams is at the line of scrimmage, as the Falcons own the 3rd highest run-blocking rating in the NFL. Their Center, Drew Dalman, has the highest run-blocking grade of anyone at his position. And the Texans are rated 32nd in rush defense according to ProFootball Focus. If Arthur Smith can dial up the carries by 20%, Bijan could have the highest fantasy output of any RB.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DAVID MONTGOMERY $6600 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

I really don’t understand the Lions and how they’re using their running backs. But I also can’t ignore it. In Week 4’s domination of the Packers, David Montgomery received 71% of the snaps and 74% of the touches. Yes, that David Montgomery who has a season average of 3.8 ypc and a long of 16 yards. This is the same David Montgomery who has a career ypc of 3.9 and was released by the worst team in football last season. More importantly, they’re giving him 50% more touches than an RB, Jahmyr Gibbs, whom they drafted with the 12th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. And that same back averages 4.8 yards every time he touches the ball.

But enough with that, the Lions like the physical style of Montgomery, and until they open their eyes, he’s going to be in play in positive game situations. Which is precisely what we have this week when the Lions face the Panthers. Carolina allows the 4th most points to RBs and has given up six rushing touchdowns, the 2nd most in football, trailing only the Broncos. And DVOA+ ranks the Panthers as the worst rushing defense in the NFL. It’s a smash spot for the Lions. And as they have proven to date, it will be one in which David Montgomery leads the way.

ALVIN KAMARA $6300 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Kamara returned last week and like many of us thought, he was thrust right into the RB1 spot due to the inexperience the Saints suited up in the backfield. And the results followed as he took 75% of the snaps and had 95% of the touches in his first week of action in 2023. The biggest surprise was his usage in the passing game as he brought in 13 catches on 14 targets.

This week he faces a New England team that was thoroughly embarrassed last week in Dallas. It’s been a tough stretch to start the season for the Patriots as they’ve faced three of the top teams in the league in Philadelphia, Miami and Dallas. And while their defensive numbers against the run are decent, as they have allowed the 10th least rushing yards, there has been issues in the passing game as an average of 5.5 receptions per game to opposing RBs.

If that trend follows suit from last week, we could see another high-volume game for Kamara and one where he’s heavily involved in the passing attack. For that reason, combined with the projected snaps, I will be getting a fair amount of exposure on Kamara.

RAHEEM MOSTERT $6200 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

DE’VON ACHANE $6100 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

I don’t know who to take in the Miami backfield anymore. Mike McDaniel has found a new toy in De’Von Achane and is not afraid to run him out in any situation, including goal-to-go. The last few weeks have played out in negative game scripts and this one has potential for a trilogy. The Dolphins face-off against the New York Giants who own the 27th rated defense according to DVOA. And the NY Giants have particularly struggled against physical backs as James Conner and Kenneth Walker III have put up big games against Big Blue.

I will look to play both RB’s this week but will not pair them together. Ownership projections will tilt to Achane due to his recent big plays. But I will likely lean towards the hand-me-downs with Mostert. The Dolphins have seen the success of those aforementioned physical backs and will look to wear down NY early then deploy the wildcard in Achane. My preference will be a 70/30 ratio favoring Mostert. And I’ll look to get the Dolphins RB’s in a high percentage of my lineups. Afterall, it’s the Giants and they’ve allowed the 6th most rushing yards in the NFL this season.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

JAMES CONNER $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

This is one of my favorite spots on the card this week. The Bengals have been dreadful this season on offense. But their rushing defense has also been a big problem. They rank 30th in rushing defense DVOA and are 26th in rush defense rating according to PFF. After allowing Derek Henry to get loose for 122 yards last week, they are now allowing the 2nd most rushing yards on the season with 628.

If we know one thing about the Cardinals, they will play hard and physically. And that starts with James Conner who has 70 touches in four games. He was ranked inside the top four in touches going into Week 4, but the route in SF dropped him back to 9th in the league. The price is a season low on DK for Conner yet it’s the worst rush defense he’s faced. I’m all-in on the Conner wagon this week in the desert.

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5700 FanDuel $6100

The Vikings’ rush defense has been decent as they rank 17th in DVOA against the run. And they’ve allowed the 9th fewest points to RBs on the season. But I can’t help remembering Week 2 when the Eagles ran for 259 yards and three rushing TDs. While the Vikings unit may not be that bad, they aren’t as good as the 9th fewest points to RBs. What’s been in their favor is they faced two of the worst rushing offenses in Tampa and Carolina. And their other opponent, outside the Eagles, passed for 445 yards and ran the ball only 13 times. So there is some illusion to the stats, which intrigues me by the prospects of the Chiefs running game this week.

Once in a while, Chiefs HC Andy Reid decides to go to a running game. And after what he’s seen his former team, the Eagles, do to the Vikings as well as understanding the recent play of his own running game, this may be that week. Isiah Pacheco is 11th in the league in rushing yards with 270 and has a 4.9 ypc. He has three straight games of 13 touches or more. When the dust settles this week, Pacheco has a chance for 20+ points, which would be a huge return on value for a back priced this low.

BREECE HALL DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6100

The Broncos are an absolute train wreck. But they somehow pulled out a victory last week in Chicago after trailing the Bears by 21 points. On defense, they have allowed the most rushing yards (704), highest yards per carry (5.6), and most rushing TDs (7). They can’t stop a nosebleed, or any running back with two legs.

There is some risk here with the Breece Hall’s volume. However, he has led the team in snaps the past two weeks with an aggregate of 47%. The Jets also have a few notes on their bulletin board from the pre-season when Broncos HC Sean Payton decided to mouth off about Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett. So there will be a little extra motivation for the team in green. And that should all be focused on the run game and taking advantage of a porous defensive line in Denver. For those reasons, I put my trust in Hackett to use his most explosive RB at his highest usage rate. This price and opponent are too good to pass up this week.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

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