NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 5

Welcome to Week Five! It will be a little light on the slate with just ten games, so we will have to be even tighter on our builds, especially for cash. Three games with high totals will entice most of the field for ownership, but we can also draw some good production from the other matchups, as the gruesome defenses of the Giants and Broncos will be on the menu. Now that we have gathered enough data from these horrific secondaries and front seven’s, it’s time to attack.

Remember to stay tuned to all of our injury news and updates and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now let’s get into this Game by Game Breakdown, it’s Week Five already…Here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 10/8/23

Giants @ Dolphins (-11) (O/U 49.5)

Locks: Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Wandale Robinson

The Giants will be in trouble again if they’re without Saquon Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas. This offense is in shambles, but if there is a glimmer of light for Big Blue it’s on Wandale Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel). Since his return in week three, he’s seen 11 targets catching on, and quickly emerging as the Giants WR one.

Miami will be out for blood this Sunday after suffering a crucial division loss to the Bills last weekend. Devon Achane ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has been spectacular, in just 18 carries, he’s rushed for 304 yards and six touchdowns. Expect the rookie to get even more at work this weekend against the Giants defense that cannot stop a nosebleed (133yds. rushing allowed per game)

Honorable Mention: Jaylen Waddle ($7,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel)

Update: Saquon Barkley is OUT

Panthers @ Lions (-9.5) (O/U 44.5)

Locks: Jared Goff (he’s at home), David Montgomery

The winless Panthers come to Detroit eager for a win, but their chances look slim this weekend. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young will continue to struggle against the tenacious defense of the Lions, but will at least get his fellow draft-class receiver Jonathon Mingo ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) back. The price is right for a wideout with 19 targets in only three games.

Detroit will be even more weaponized for Week Five as Jameson Williams ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) will be reinstated from his suspension early. His role may get bigger in his first game back, depending on the health status of Josh Reynolds and Amon-Ra St. Brown, so keep an eye on their status this weekend. Oh and run it back with the touchdown machine David Montgomery ($6,600 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel), The Panthers cannot stop the run if their lives depended on it (28th in DVOA/136 yards allowed per game).

Honorable Mention: Sam La Porta ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel)

Update: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs are OUT

Ravens @ Steelers (+4) (O/U 38.5)

Locks: Lamar Jackson

Now that Lamar Jackson has returned to his true fantasy form ranking first in the league in completion percentage (78.8%), it’s safe to continue to roster his weaponry, especially against a dazed and confused Steelers’ secondary (30th in DVOA). Zay Flowers ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) and Mark Andrews ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) provide a one-two punch catching the football and continue to be Jackson’s first and second options through the air.

This season for the Steelers is not getting off to a good start, as they continue to blunder on both sides of the ball. They got spanked by Houston on the road 30-6 and Kenny Pickett went down with a knee injury. Although he practiced in full on Thursday, we can’t be confident in the state of this offense…Start that Ravens Defense ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel).

Texans @ Falcons (-2) (O/U 41)

Locks: Bijan Robinson

What else can we say about the rookie out of Ohio State C.J. Stroud ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel)? A perfect six to zero touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratio with a floor of 20 fantasy points in three of his four starts. We all know by now Nico Collins and Tank Dell have been studs so far this year, but let’s not sleep on Dalton Schultz ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) who finally found paydirt last week. He’ll have a good shot at repeating his performance by drawing an Atlanta defense that tends to forget about guarding opposing tight ends (26th in DVOA).

Atlanta has appeared to have a changing of the guard at tight end as Jonnu Smith ($2,800 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is out-producing Kyle Pitts ($3,300 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) in fantasy points, although the latter is leading the league in route participation (100%). Both make great punts at tight end this week in a weatherproof, pass-friendly environment at home.

Saints @ Patriots (-1.5) (O/U 40)

Kamara was peppered tremendously last week (14 targets), possibly due to Derek Carr’s bum shoulder. Hopefully, it’s on the mend as these Saints’ receiving core needs to eat too. Michael Thomas ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) has taken a nose dive in salary and should be considered sooner or later for DFS.

The Pats have struggled on offense as of late, and as much as Mac Jones loves throwing to his tight ends Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry, the Saints rank 8th against opposing tight ends. Jones was so bad last week in Dallas he was pulled for Bailey Zappe, way too many question marks for New England so it’s a fade here for me.

Honorable Mentions: Saints and Patriots DSTs

Titans @ Colts (-1) (O/U 42.5)

Locks: Anthony Richardson

Well, it’s almost November and you know what that means, Derrick Henry ($7,500 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) will rise from the dead! The stud from Alabama had 27 fantasy points and could put in more work this weekend. DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) has a clear opportunity against the putrid Colts defense (25th in DVOA) who still may be without Shaq Leonard and DeForest Buckner.

All eyes will be on the Colts backfield this weekend as Jonathan Taylor is expected to debut off the PUP list. This news put a damper on Zack Moss’s workload, but Taylor may not yet receive the entire opportunity share. Expect Taylor to be eased back into game shape while Richardson airs it out on a Tennessee secondary (25th in DVOA) that has been at the bottom of the barrel all season. Michael Pittman ($6,400 DraftKings/$ 6,600 FanDuel) disappeared last week, he should re-emerge in this great matchup.

Eagles @ Rams (+4) (O/U 50.5)

Locks: Jalen Hurts

The undefeated Eagles fly into LA to face the Rams in a game with high shoot-out potential. Hurts is the highest-priced quarterback on the slate, but if you can fit him into your budget go for it. A. J. Brown ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is still ridiculously underpriced, as he has taken over to lead the Eagles receiving core. He should feast again when the Rams try to play man coverage, as he has been a beast against it (19 targets, 414 yards, two touchdowns). Running back DeAndre Swift ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) should also be considered for the slate, as the Rams are 9th worst in DVOA against the run, and will not leave the field if the game stays competitive, which it should.

The Rams will welcome Cooper Kupp back in Week Five, with no restrictions per head coach Sean McVay. So Puca Nacua will now take a back seat slightly with Kupp back in the mix, but using either one for DFS may be too risky because of their price tags. L.A. may attack the Philly linebackers using Tyler Higbee ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel), who ranks 31st in DVOA defending the tight end position,

Bengals @ Cardinals (+3) (O/U 44.5)

Locks: Joe Mixon, James Conner

Let’s face it guys and gals…Joe Burrow is not himself, and the Bengals are not what they used to be. Tee Higgins looks like he’ll miss this game with a cracked rib and Ja’Maar Chase’s salary is too high to spend on Burrow’s gimpy calf. Joe Mixon ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) has been a pillar for the Bengals offense and the only one reliable, with an incredible 84% opportunity share.

The Cardinals have turned a lot of heads this season so far, proving to be one of the most overachieving teams in the NFL, mainly because of quarterback Josh Dobbs ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) who continues to deliver for fantasy with a high 20-point floor. Dobbs along with Marquise Brown ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel), Rondale Moore ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel), Michael Wilson ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel), and Zach Ertz ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) are all viable GPP plays. I didn’t forget about James Conner ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel), by the way, lock him up against Cincy’s 31st in DVOA to running backs.

Update: Tee Higgins is OUT

Chiefs @ Vikings (+5) (O/U 53)

Locks: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins

The world champs looked hung over last Sunday night, barely beating the New York Jets after going up 17-0 in the first quarter. They’ll be in a get-right game in Minnesota against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Isaiah Pacheco ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) appears to have taken over the majority of the backfield and should see plenty of red zone and goalline opportunities again. Be careful with the Chiefs receivers, they are way too unpredictable, so keep them out of cash games.

The Vikings are aiming for their second win, but they’ll have to go through Chris Jones and the KC pass rush. If the Chiefs decide to double up on Justin Jefferson, then Jordan Addison ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) and TJ Hockenson ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) may see some one-on-one man coverage.

Jets @ Broncos (-2) (U/O 43)

Locks: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall

Fasten your seatbelts and get ready for take-off. The Jets will look to avenge a disappointing loss to the Chiefs against the vile Broncos defense, who are dead last in every category. Head coach Robert Saleh let the cat out of the bag this week on Breece Hall ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) losing his snap count this Sunday, telling us to start him for fantasy and DFS. Now he won’t run the ball 30 times, so give me some Zack Wilson ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) to Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) also, but Zack should stay out of cash lineups.

We all witnessed on Sunday night what the Jets’ stout defense did to Kansas City in primetime, put them in a vise. I don’t truly want any pieces of Denver’s offense this week, perhaps Courtland Sutton ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) as a mid-range consistent receiver. Looks like the Broncos’ running back is trending to not suit up against the Jets’ 28th DVOA run defense. If he does not go then Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) would be the free square at the position, who averaged ten yards per carry last week filling in for Williams.

Cash Core 

• Jalen Hurts
• Wandale Robinson
• Bijan Robinson
• Travis Kelce
• Garrett Wilson

GPP Core 

• Josh Dobbs/Zack Wilson
• Joe Mixon
• Sam La Porta
• Marquise Brown
• A.J. Brown

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 5. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for a 3-day, weekly, monthly, and annual membership here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!