Dave Gloeckner 
Today is one of my favorite days in all sports as the MLB opens its playoff season with four Wild Card series. The Sweet Spot has you covered for DFS action as we look closely at the top pitchers, stacks, and value batters. As always, hit us up in Discord if you have any questions. But with that, let’s go break some slates and cash some tickets on this beautiful day of baseball.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projections Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 3:00p.m. with 4 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 4 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 3:00 PM Start
Playoff baseball is a different game than in the regular season. Because the Wild Card Round is just 3 games, a manager has several arms at his disposal. His otherwise 4th or 5th starters could now be long relievers if needed in a pinch. The point is, if a starting pitcher struggles early there is a chance for him to be pulled quickly as the game is magnified even more in the playoffs. So I’ll be cautious when assessing certain stats. Otherwise, I’m looking at offenses I can attack today, as well as pitchers who have ended the season on a good note and are not showing signs of fatigue.
KEVIN GAUSMAN ($9800 DK)
Speaking of pitchers who ended the season well, Kevin Gausman recorded a 2.43 ERA in September which was 10th best in the MLB. He also has playoff experience as this year will be his 5th postseason appearance.
But I have two primary concerns with Gausman today. First, his September ERA, while very solid, was also met with a 3.73 FIP and 4.20 SIERA. Both project possible negative regression. Included in that stat line is a 12.2% walk rate. The Twins have a low batting average (20th in MLB) but are top 7 in OPS, ISO, HR’s, and wOBA. They also own the 4th highest walk rate amongst MLB teams.
The Twins also rocked Gausman this year scoring seven runs in 10.1 innings of work. More importantly, they drew nine walks. This looks like the classic scenario where if Gausman isn’t on early, Jays manager John Schneider could pull the plug and use someone like Kikuchi or even Bassitt. I’ll pass on the top salary pitcher on the board based on the metrics above.
TYLER GLASNOW ($9300 DK)
The Texas Rangers offense is top 3 in all major categories this season. But their stats in September did take a dip, and it was on display in the biggest of games last Sunday when they fell to the Mariners 1-0 to drop to a Wild Card vice winning the AL West. This is obviously a new stage for many of their players and their performance down the stretch showed the pressure had an affect. As shown below, the Rangers had a big dip over the last week in all categories except HRs and ISO (which play well together). This is important to note because Texas was playing playoff games for the last month.
Bring in Tyler Glasnow who has prior experience in the playoffs and will be ready for the big lights. He faced the Rangers once this season and held them to just one hit over six innings of work. He’s also a better pitcher at home, sporting an ERA almost one run lower than his road numbers. And his BA against is 0.163 at home which is 50 points lower than his road split. Tampa wants to play in a controlled game, and they have their ace on the mound to do that today. For those reasons, I like Glasnow tonight and will include him in my player pool.
ZACK WHEELER ($8600 DK)
Wheeler proved to everyone last year that he is a big game pitcher. In his first career postseason, Wheeler pitched six games and had a 2.78 ERA. He was dominant in games against the Cardinals and Padres racking up a 1.77 ERA in games pitched in the NL bracket. And he’s known for several weeks that he would get the ball in Game 1 tonight for the Phillies thus giving him the time to prepare both mentally and physically.
The Phillies SP has three starts against Miami this season and has pitched at least 6 innings in each outing. He also owns a solid 3.00 EA and a 0.217 BA against. But the key is having the time to prepare and rest as Wheeler has had points when his velocity was down. I expect it to be up tonight as the Bank will be rocking and add some needed adrenaline to the system. Based on all that, Wheeler is my favorite pitcher on the board tonight.
CORBIN BURNES ($8000 DK)
Arizona fell flat to end the season and had to hold onto their playoff lives in order to make it to their first postseason since 2017. They were often carried by a few stars on offense and their two top SP’s in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. But they had to use Gallen and Kelly over the weekend leaving Brandon Pffadt to start today’s opener in Milwaukee. And while the Brewers offense isn’t any better than Milwaukee’s, it’s about Burnes and Pffadt. Looking specifically at Arizona, they ranked 14th or worse in all major hitting categories. The one thing they do is keep their strikeouts down, but their power numbers such as ISO and HRs were ranked in the bottom 10 of all teams in the league.
Then there’s the fact that Corbin Burnes is lights out in his playoff career. He’s had seven appearances and allowed runs in just one of those outings. His career playoff ERA is 1.20 and has an 11.0 K/9 inning rate. And those have been games against top offenses such as the Braves and Dodgers. Now he’s up against a soft offense that has holes. Say no more, Burnes will be paired up with Wheeler and/or Glasnow to round out my top 3 today.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER)
TBD
No true value pitcher on the board tonight based on our definitions. One to consider that is lower on the salary range is JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($7100 DK). Montgomery had a 3.22 ERA in September which is a sign he’s still trending in a positive direction. And though he hasn’t faced Tampa this year, he’s very familiar pitching at Tropicana Field as he spent six seasons with the Yankees and has five career appearances in TB.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 3:00 PM
MLB STACKS RANKED IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE:
- Philadelphia
- Milwaukee
- Minnesota
- Toronto
- Tampa Bay
- Texas
- Arizona
- Miami
CORE BATTERS
BRYSON STOTT ($4400 DK)
As part of my favorite stack today, I’m going to build around Phillies 2B Bryson Stott. While Luzardo has pitched well against the Phillies, Stott has seen him well and put the ball in play. He has four career hits in five at-bats off Luzardo. More importantly he’s a threat to steal a base at any time. The weather is warm in the northeast so there is potential for runs to be scored tonight in Philly. Circle the stack around Stott so you can pay up for one or two of the bigger bats in the Phils lineup.
For stacking, I like BRYCE HARPER, TREA TURNER, NICK CASTELLANOS, ALEC BOHM and JT REALMUTO.
BO BICHETTE ($5800 DK)
The Blue Jays and Twins game today has potential to be high scoring based on the SP’s splits and performances against their opponent. Pablo Lopez has not been great at home, as his ERA is 1.2 runs higher in Minnesota than on the road. Bo Bichette has good career numbers off Lopez, owning a 0.400 BA, and finished the season strong with hits in 8 of his last 9 games.
For stacking, I like VLADIMIR GUERRERO, WHIT MERRIFIELD, GEORGE SPRINGER, ALEJANDRO KIRK, and CAVAN BIGGIO.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER)
MAX KEPLER ($4200 DK)
While it’s not in the true value range, look to Max Kepler tonight in Minnesota. He batted 0.379 with two home runs and six RBIs over the last week.
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