Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Touch ‘Em All Tuesday edition of the Sweet Spot here at WinDaily Sports. We’re less than a week away from the playoffs and six teams have clinched a berth in the postseason. Personally, I’m attending the Phillies game tonight to hopefully see the 7th team punch their ticket as Philadelphia has a magic number of one. On the other hand, the late season schedule in Seattle has been precarious as the Mariners, who were leading the division one week ago are now on the outside looking in. For DFS, the arms at the top of the slate are all pitching in important games thus making their value even more noteworthy at this time of year. But the key will be the bats, as we have cooler weather across the country as well as teams resting players. So it’ll be paramount to find the right spots for scoring runs.
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projections Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:07 p.m. with 11 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:07 PM Start
KEVIN GAUSMAN ($11,500 DK)
The Blue Jays have firm control of the second wild card in the AL. They have a 97.7% chance to make the playoffs and their magic number is four. Tonight, they start a six-game homestand and welcome the Yankees into town. Even better, they roll out their ace in a meaningful game as Toronto hands the ball to Kevin Gausman.
Gausman is currently 3rd in the league in strikeouts with 232 and will look to leapfrog Blake Snell for 2nd tonight. But the main reason I like Gausman is his splits against the Yankees. On the season he’s faced New York three times and has a 0.90 ERA. In those contests, he’s allowed just 2 ER’s and struck out 31.
And while the Yankees have hit better with the return of Aaron Judge, their strikeout rate has raised significantly. Over the past ten days they have a 28.2% K rate compared to their season total of 23.8%. And Judge has a 35% K rate himself versus Gausman. Line ’em up and knock ’em down is the motto tonight in Toronto. And I look for Gausman to have yet another great outing against the Bronx Bombers.
GEORGE KIRBY ($9700 DK)
This is pretty much an elimination game in Seattle tonight when the Mariners take the field versus the Astros. The M’s are now 2.5 games behind the first place Rangers and 1.5 games behind the Astros for the final wild card spot. Tonight, they turn to George Kirby to right the ship and they should have confidence he’ll do so.
While Kirby has hit a rough spot in September, he owns a 3.10 ERA and 9.3 K’s/9 innings at home. He’s also faced the Astros once this season and held them to just one ER over 6.1 innings pitched. As for the Astros, they are a well-oiled machine when locked in, but over the last week they are batting just 0.238 which is good for 20th in the league. We’ve seen pitchers like Kyle Bradish, Jordan Lyles, and Cole Ragans all have success against the Astros in the last week. Which puts us in a good spot with Kirby as he’ll be low owned based on the matchup and recent struggles in Seattle. I like them M’s tonight as they have their playoff lives on the line and expect them to play like it.
BRAXTON GARRETT ($8600 DK)
The Marlins still have meaningful baseball to play over their last six games. Miami sits just one game out of the last wild card spot in the NL. They turn to Braxton Garrett tonight who has pitched well over his last two outings. One of those was against his same opponent tonight, the New York Mets. In that outing he went 6 innings and allowed 0 ER’s while punching out seven.
Add to that the Mets are batting 0.230 as a team over the past 10 days are coming off getting swept in a four game series against the Phillies. They are punchless and ready for the offseason to begin.
SETH LUGO ($8400 DK)
The Giants offense is one that we like to attack due to their low power numbers (23rd in ISO) and high K rate (4th highest strikeout percentage). And tonight is no different as they face a pitcher they’ve had little success against this season in Seth Lugo. The Padres RHP has faced SF twice this season and is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA as he’s allowed just 1 ER in eleven innings of work.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
MICHAEL KING ($6000 DK)
King has been a late season star for a stumbling Yankees team. Quite frankly, I’m surprised he’s still priced this low and will gladly find ways to deploy him in today’s slate. Over the 40 days, King has started six games and allowed 1 ER or less in all of them. And in September he’s been even better posting a 1.66 ERA in four starts. And even better, he owns a 31.1% K rate and strikes out 11.5 per 9 innings.
BONUS PICKS
I also like BOBBY MILLER ($8900 DK) and JOEY LUCCHESI ($7200 DK) today.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:07 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the BRAVES (vs. CUBS), the WHITE SOX (vs Arizona), the PADRES (vs. SF), the DIAMONDBACKS (vs. CWS), DODGERS (vs. Colorado), and the BREWERS (vs. STL).
CORE BATTERS
JUAN SOTO ($5600 DK)
The Padres are leading the MLB in batting over the past 10 days as they have a team BA of 0.308. And over that span, Soto is leading the way with a 0.452 batting average and 1.366 OPS. And the Padres faced the Giants SP tonight, Kyle Harrison, just two weeks ago and hit four home runs off him.
For stacking, I like MANNY MACHADO, XANDER BOGAERTS, FERNANDO TATIS, GARRETT COOPER, GARY SANCHEZ and HA SEONG KIM.
CORBIN CARROLL ($5800 DK)
The Diamondbacks are fighting for their playoff lives as they let one slip yesterday in New York. They are just one game up on Miami for the last playoff spot. The offense hasn’t been the problem as they’ve scored six runs or more in six of their last eight games. Leading the way has been Ketel Marte with a 0.500 batting average in that span. But not far behind is their star rookie, Corbin Carroll, who has a 0.444 batting average in that stretch. Tonight they face a gas can in Jose Urena who owns an 0-6 record and 7.27 ERA.
For stacking, I like KETEL MARTE, GABRIEL MORENO, TOMMY PHAM, CHRISTIAN WALKER, and LOURDES GURRIEL JR.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
MICHAEL STEFANIC ($2100 DK)
If you’re looking for value in deep dark places that no one will go, then I got one for you. The Angels 2B, Michael Stefanic, is on a tear. He has a six-game hitting streak where he’s batting 0.524. Everyone has passed on the Angels after Ohtani packed his things and left town. But they could provide a sneaky stack here with a Stefanic, Schaunel, Neto, Adell and O’Hoppe who are all young batters looking to make an impression for next year.
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