Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Fastball Friday edition of the Sweet Spot here at WinDaily Sports. I’m filling in for Jared today and taking over the first day of the weekend article. We have less than two weeks left in the MLB season to take down some slates. Looking at tonight, there are few aces but several solid arms at the top. But the middle of the pitching rotation looks to be where to attack with high value type arms.
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projections Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 p.m. with 11 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
PABLO LOPEZ ($10,700 DK)
The Minnesota Twins have an opportunity to clinch the AL Central tonight as their magic number is down to 1. And their staff ace, Pablo Lopez, will get the opportunity to do that for the city and franchise. Lopez has racked up 221 K’s this season which is 4th best in the MLB. Which pairs perfectly with tonight’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels. That’s because over the past 10 days, the Angels are striking out at a 33.7% clip. They’re also batting just 0.206 and walking at the lowest rate in the league, 5.6%. This team has hit the FastForward button on the offseason and have nothing to play for. Expect Lopez to put together a gem and help pop the champagne bottles afterwards.
FRAMBER VALDEZ ($10,200 DK)
The Astros have just nine games left in the season and hold the slightest of leads in the AL West. Houston is just 0.5 games up on both the Mariners and Rangers. Good news is, those two teams are playing each other tonight. But the bad news is, one will win making the Astros play each game like it’s the playoffs. And with that, they get the fortune of playing the 2nd worst team in baseball in the Kansas City Royals with their ace, Framber Valdez, on the mound.
Valdez faced these same Royals this past Sunday and pitched 7 innings allowing 0 ERs and striking out 5. That was good enough for a win and 26.2 DK points. Rinse and repeat for tonight as I expect Valdez to his recent stretch of brilliance which includes five straight quality starts.
CHRIS SALE ($9200 DK)
Chris Sale has been inconsistent this season partly because he dealt with two stretches on the IL. But in his last outing versus the Blue Jays, he tied a season high with 10 K’s. Toronto is one of the tougher teams to strikeout, so his stuff was flashing well as he registered a 40% whiff rate.
As for tonight, he faces the White Sox who he’s had success against in the past. Projected Chicago batters are hitting just 0.158 off Sale with a 33.3% K rate. The batter that’s faced him the most, Elvis Andrus, is 4 for 31 off Sale.
Sale is looking to close out the year healthy and go into 2024 healthy for the first time in several years. Next year will be a contract season so he has added motivation to show he still has plus stuff.
SAWYER GIPSON-LONG ($7700 DK)
Even though there are only ten days left in the season, I’m willing to play the Long game tonight. Figuratively speaking, that’s getting a good amount of exposure to Sawyer Gipson-Long in my lineups. The Detroit Tigers brought up their young arm 2 weeks ago and all he’s done is helped them win both games he started. In his last outing, he sunk the Angels by striking out 11 batters in five innings of work. He’s posted an outstanding 41% K rate to date and now gets the A’s who are striking out at the 2nd highest rate in the month of September.
Step on the gas and let’s play the Long game together!
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
BRANDON PFAADT ($6700 DK)
Our last value play, Javiar Asaad, punched hard just like our mascot the Kool-Aide man as he registered 25.65 DK points and paid back a 4.5x value.
We look to follow that one up with attacking the Bronx Bombers tonight. The D’Backs are in firm control of the 2nd Wild Card spot in the NL and will look to keep that stranglehold tonight when they face the Yankees. While Pfaadt’s metrics his SIERA is almost 1.5 runs lower than his 5.68 ERA. And his FIP and xFIP are considerably lower as well.
Then there’s the Yankees who are batting a dismal 0.211 in September which is last in the MLB. They are also posting a 26.3% K rate this month which is 4th highest. It’s a matchup worth exploring and one that could pay out as much as 3.5x.
BONUS PICKS
I also like COLE RAGANS ($7800 DK) and RYAN YARBROUGH ($7300 DK) today.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the BRAVES (vs. WSH), the TWINS (vs LAA), the PADRES (vs. STL), the DIAMONDBACKS (vs. NYY), METS (vs. Philadelphia), and the PHILLIES (vs. NYM).
CORE BATTERS
BRYCE HARPER ($5900 DK)
The Phillies batters have cooled off in September but that was expected after they sizzled through August leading baseball in runs and home runs. But there are recent signs the offense is starting to pick it up and that starts with Bryce Harper who has scored a run in five straight games. October is Red October in Philly. But it’s also Harper time so let’s catch him right as he starts to get hot.
For stacking, I like TREA TURNER, KYLE SCHWARBER, NICK CASTELLANOS, BRYSON STOTT, ALEC BOHM, and JOHAN ROJAS.
OZZIE ALBIES ($5800 DK)
It’s Patrick Corbin Day! We only have two left in the 2023 season and this one looks like a smash spot with the Braves and their splits against the Nationals LHP. Here’s a crazy fact for you MLB heads, Patrick Corbin will make $35M next season. And yet, he’s given the Nats more than Stephen Strasburg. The price for winning a World Series can be steep.
I’ll start my stack with Albies who has three career home runs off Corbin paired with a 0.433 career batting average in 30 at-bats.
For stacking, I like RONALD ACUNA JR, AUSTIN RILEY, MATT OLSON, SEAN MURPHY, MARCEL OZUNA and MICHAEL HARRIS
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
TBD
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