Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 3

A great start to the NFL season with a lot of winning screenshots for both GPP tournaments and cash games! Personally, my GPP week was nothing special, but again, we had a lot of success sneaking in the pay line in our cash games and I love to see so many new members riding the cash game wave. Let’s get back at it for Week 3.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. Some weeks I’ll highlight them, other weeks I will not. This week, it will be very interesting to see where the field goes to open up value for the Chalk-City Shootout in Minnesota (54.5 point total… no other game is higher than 48.5).

• Justin Herbert ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD) – Herbert seems to be a staple in this article week after week. This is by far the highest total on the slate and a game that should not disappoint from a fantasy perspective. With how much pressure the Vikings have been bringing this year and grading top-12 in Pass Defense DVOA, I’d say Herbert and his high ownership is probably best left for cash games (he struggles a bit against the blitz).
  
  Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Kelley,
  Bring-Back Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Alexander Mattison, Jordan Addison
  
• Kirk Cousins ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD) – This is a full steam ahead play for Kirk Cousins against the Chargers’ dead last pass defense (DVOA). Pair that with the incredible passing rate over expectation for the Vikings and you’re bound to have fantastic fantasy production. The Vikings simply cannot run the football effectively and will continue to drop back and sling it. Cousins has a fantastic matchup at home here and will be a popular GPP and cash play for the DFS community.
  
  Stack Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison
  Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Kelley
  
• Trevor Lawrence ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Despite being almost a double-digit home favorite here against the Texans, Trevor Lawrence grades out as one of the safest quarterbacks for me on this slate. The Texans will be without their top cover-cornerback, Derek Stingley Jr. and should abuse this defense as a whole for four quarters. The AETY Model has him as one of the top values at the quarterback position with a sexy cash-game floor of 255 passing yards and two touchdowns. Fire up Lawrence in all formats and expect a monster comeback performance after a let-down last week against a tough Chiefs’ defense.
  
  Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk
  Bring-Back Options: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods
  
• DeShaun Watson ($6,100 DK / $7,500 FD) – Not a high total or an up-paced game environment at all, but Watson has the Tennessee Titans and that is always something we’re interested in attacking with a passing game. Watson is probably better off as a cash game play and offers a great floor with his running ability.
  
• Desmond Ridder ($5,000 DK GPP Only) – Alright, the NFL DFS Puke Play of the Week! If you are looking for a way to afford some of these stud wide receivers in the higher total games, you’re going to need some salary relief. According the the AETY Model, the number one value at the quarterback position is Desmond Ridder. Keep in mind there is significant risk when rostering Ridder. You’re rostering the quarterback who is on the team that is second to last in the NFL in pass attempts per game… Arthur Smith wants to run the football at all costs.
  
  On the bright-side, David Montgomery is likely missing this game with an injury and this Lions’ offense is going to need to beat Atlanta through the air. Atlanta is a pass funnel defense and I’m sure Ben Johnson is aware of that. These pass catchers for Detroit are healthy and should look to step on the gas from the get go and make Arthur Smith get out of his comfort zone to throw the football. On the other side of things, Arthur Smith should want to throw the football more against a depleted Lions’ secondary that already ranks 5th to last on this slate in pass defense DVOA. What Ridder does with his legs is just pure bonus points for us, but there should be a good floor here against a defense that runs a lot of man coverage with heavy blitz rates.
  
  Stack Options: Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts
  Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam Laporta, Jahmyr Gibbs

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Bijan Robinson ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Best running back on the slate and likely comes in extremely under-owned. I don’t want to prioritize running backs against the Lions’ but he’s arguably the best pass catcher on the team as well. There is nothing about Cordarrelle Patterson returning to the lineup that hinders my love for Bijan. Having said that, Tony Pollard ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD) would be the preferred option in cash game lineups.
  
• Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Fantastic game environment for Etienne and the Jaguars here against the absolute worst rush defense in the NFL (32nd in run defense DVOA). The only downside here is how much we’ll see of Tank Bigsby in the red-zone, but Etienne will be extremely active in the passing game with Zay Jones likely out.
  
• Kenneth Walker II ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – More of a cash play for me in terms of the high projected ownership, but Kenneth Walker is in a great matchup against the Panthers and their 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). I’ll likely just jam him in my cash lineup to follow the ownership crowd, but will avoid in GPPs due to the offensive line issues that were clearly a problem for the Seahawks last week in Detroit.
  
• Javonte Williams ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dirt cheap price for a guy I’ve been waiting on for the first couple of weeks. It is now officially, Javonte Williams SZN (for all you SZN boys and girls out there). After seeing him get back into form a bit in Week One and damn-near be the only ball-carrier for the Broncos in Week Two, it is time for Sean Payton to unleash Javonte Williams against the Dolphins’ 29th ranked run defense (DVOA) in. The AETY Model grades the Denver Broncos running game against the Miami Dolphins’ run defense as the #1 positive matchup to attack. It’s still quite early and falling in love with 2023 models may be premature, but in GPP’s I’ll take the chance on a ridiculously affordable, dual-threat running back, in a great game environment with some humidity that should bode well for his previously injured knee.
  
• Josh Kelley ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Assuming Austin Ekeler is OUT, Josh Kelley is a lock for me in all formats. I do not care about his ownership as this matchup is perfect for the Chargers’ running game. The Vikings’ run defense against the Chargers’ ground game is the #2 mismatch on the AETY Model (behind the one listed above).
  
• Jerome Ford ($4,800 DK / $5,600 FD) – If you need the “free-square” salary relief running back, Jerome Ford will surely be that guy this week. As we’ve mentioned the past two weeks, the running game matchup against the Titans’ is not a sexy one. Leave Ford to cash games only as he likely garners 35% or higher ownership in Week 3 NFL DFS.
  
• Kendre Miller ($4,300 DK / $4,600 FD) – It sounds like Kendre Miller is going to be a full-go this week against the Packers’ weak run defense. I don’t fully trust that Miller gets a ton of snaps, but we know Pete Carmichael does not want to use a lot of Tony Jones Jr. This is Kendre Miller’s time to shine before Alvin Kamara returns next week.

Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, Isiah Pacheco

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play.

• Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DK / $9,700 FD) – My WR1 on this slate by a wide margin and will be locked in for all formats. The floor is simply too high. If you cannot afford him in cash games, use Kirk Cousins to get your exposure that way.
  
• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – With everyone trying to pay up for Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to come into this week at 5-10% ownership. The upside here is fantastic as we mentioned the Lions likely lean on Jared Goff and this passing attack. The Falcons will play a ton of man coverage and that is where Jared Goff looks for Amon-Ra early and often (AETY Model projects a 36% target share against man coverage). Also, the matchup on the inside against Dee Alford is a fruitful one for Mr. St. Brown.
  
• Keenan Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD) – Keenan Allen is legit taking over the CeeDee Lamb route tree that Kellen Moore used in Dallas. This dude is a premium play at the wide receiver position every single week. This week, it’s a solid matchup in an extremely high total game… against a Vikings’ team that plays a ton of Cover-3 zone and has the highest blitz rate in the NFL. Advantage Keenan.
  
• Calvin Ridley ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel, but certainly in play on DraftKings as well. If Zay Jones is out, Calvin Ridley’s usage will likely skyrocket against a Texans’ defense that is out their top cover cornerback. I love this spot for the Jaguars’ offense as a whole. Christian Kirk is also in a smash spot here on the inside of this depleted secondary.
  
• Amari Cooper ($5,700 DK) / ($6,200 FD) – Your classic WR1 against the Tennessee Titans’ pass-funnel defense and Kristian Fulton. At the price, this should be a fine play in all formats though I would lean towards cash games with this slow paced game environment.
  
  Elijah Moore ($4,700 DK / $6,100 FD) has a low-key fantastic matchup here as well against the Titans’ man-coverage.
  
• Courtland Sutton ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD) – If this game turns into a shootout, Courtland Sutton should be in a great spot here on the outside against Eli Apple and Xavien Howard. It’s a bit tough to handicap this receiving core and the expected target shares, but the Dolphins will play a nice mix of man coverage and Cover-3 zone, which will keep both Sutton and Jeudy active in the pecking order.
  
  Drake London ($5,000 DK / $6,500 FD) is also someone I like a great deal in that price-range… especially if you’re going to have the stones to play Desmond Ridder.
  
• Braxton Berrios ($3,600 DK / $5,100 FD) – Assuming Jaylen Waddle is OUT, the DFS community will likely flock towards Braxton Berrios. The price is great and the matchup against Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis should give Berrios a lot of room to succeed in one of the best offenses in football. I prefer him as a cash game play but he’s fine for all NFL DFS formats if and only if Waddle is OUT.
  
• Tank Dell ($3,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – Getting a cheap bring-back for the Texans in what should be a very negative gamescript makes a lot of sense here. Nico Collins is an absolute beast and I love to see it (one year after I play the hell out of him, lol), but for the savings, Tank Dell is very interesting. Tank Dell is the only wide receiver who is cheaper than $4K on DraftKings that is Top-25 on the slate in targets per routes ran and first read on quarterback drop-backs… Those are very telling metrics that Tank Dell is a focal point of this offense.
  
• Justin Watson ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – If you listened to the 1st and Stix Podcast for Week 3, first off… thank you! Second off, you were probably thrown way off-guard when I mentioned Justin Watson’s name. The stat was: of the top 35 players in air-yards, only three of them have not had a double-digit fantasy outing so far in 2023. Those three are Jonathan Mingo, Michael Wilson, and Justin Watson.
  
  One of these things is not like the other… Mingo and Wilson are a part of horrid offenses. Justin Watson is a part of one of the best offenses in the NFL. If Kadarius Toney and Richie James are OUT, Justin Watson is my 1% owned GPP flyer of the week. He should absolutely break a deep ball or two against this practice-squad talent in the Bears’ secondary.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Jordan Addison, Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Nico Collins (cash-viable at his ownership), Drake London, Elijah Moore, Robert Woods

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – Ownership will be incredibly low for the best tight-end in football.

• TJ Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – Rather cheap exposure to one of the best weapons in the highest total game on the slate. The Chargers will run a healthy mix of Cover-3 and blitz which will open things up in the middle of the field for TJ Hockenson.
  
• Sam LaPorta ($4,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – Excellent price for a key pass-catcher on the Lions’ offense that is expected to pass the ball a lot. When the Falcons show blitz and some Cover-3 zone, that is where LaPorta should shine in this matchup.
  
• Kyle Pitts ($3,900 DK Only) – It’s gross, but I need a cheap stack option with Desmond Ridder if I want to fill the rest of my roster with studs. Kyle Pitts isn’t getting a ton of love in this offense but is still second amongst NFL Tight-Ends in route participation. The Lions will play a ton of Cover-2 and man coverage which should open up the world for Kyle Pitts to run wild (if they pass the ball). The best cover safety for the Lions, Kerby Joseph, will likely miss this game after being carted off the field last week. C’mon, 1% Pitts!
  
• Zach Ertz ($3,500 DK Only) – With the potential weather concerns in Washington, just take the affordable Zach Ertz who’s getting targeted at an elite clip. This will be another negative gamescript for the Arizona Cardinals.
  
• Cole Turner ($2,700 DK / $4,600 FD) – Total punt play with Logan Thomas out (concussion). The weather is likely to be a mess in this Buffalo @ Washington game but at the prices, Kincaid and Turner are viable.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, Hayden Hurst

Defense / Special Teams

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Baltimore Ravens
• Cleveland Browns
• Green Bay Packers
• New Orleans Saints
• New York Jets (cash game lock at their ownership)
• Carolina Panthers

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Justin Jefferson or Kirk Cousins
• Josh Kelley
• Keenan Allen
• Zach Ertz
• New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Desmond Ridder
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Javonte Williams
• Kyle Pitts

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