Throw in the towel! Not because of our RB recommendations here at the Running Back Report Card. After all, we hit on six of the top ten scoring RBs last week! But because of the numerous injuries that ball carriers incurred in Week 2. And also, for the curious playcalling by several OCs, including one up in New York.

Using data to pick the best spots for RBs in a given week is challenging enough. But then you add injuries and unpredictable game scripts, and it all becomes much tougher. Ultimately, it was heartbreaking to see Nick Chubb go down with a severe leg injury and for Saquon Barkley to hurt his ankle when the Giants were running out the clock for a game-winning field goal. So erase those bad thoughts. Throw in the towel for Week 2, and let’s start a new contest with the below building blocks for your DFS lineups.

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Each week I highlight my favorite ten RB’s and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TONY POLLARD $8000 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

Tier 1 is lonely this week, as three of the five backs are out or questionable. So, that leaves us with only a few RBs to pay for. And Tony Pollard should be one of those on your radar.

Pollard is the top ball carrier in one of the best offenses in the NFL. And they face the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals, this week. Already this season, Arizona has allowed 44.9 DK points to RBs, including:

• Week 1: Brian Robinson – 13.6 DK points, 1 TD, 20 touches
• Week 2: Saquon Barkley – 27.2 DK points, 2 TDs, 23 touches

This follows a similar trend to last season when the Cardinals finished 22nd in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th most rushing TDs (21). They are 14th in rushing defense DVOA, but the eye test shows they are much worse as they’ve faced two fragile offensive lines in the Commanders and Giants.

I would not worry about blowout potential in this game. Whether the Cowboys score 30 points in three quarters or four, the points will be had against this porous defense in the desert. Pollard has 64% of the snaps this season and is coming off a game where he saw 32 touches. He’s tied for the league lead in touches (48) with Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys RB is a very safe play this week and one that could break the slate.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7800 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

It only took one week for Bijan Robinson owners to come back in off the proverbial ledge they put themselves on after Week 1. Even though the 2023 NFL First Round pick put up 20.3 DK points in Week 1, Tyler Algeir had more touches and points. However, that changed in Week 2 as Bijan had 28% more snaps and seven more touches than his counterpart.

Overall, Bijan is showing his playmaking ability. The Falcons RB is averaging 6.2 ypc while also reeling in five catches per game. He’s already showing and proving, why Atlanta used a top-10 pick on the former Texas Longhorn RB. And he’s 7th in the league in touches with 39.

This week, he gets to face the Detroit Lions, who play at a fast pace. While Detroit is in the middle of the pack in rushing defense DVOA (13th), they played two teams in the bottom half of the league in rushing offense DVOA and rushing yards. But the Falcons are a different story as they rank 4th in rushing yards and have a prominent offensive line.

This will be a battle of the first two RBs drafted this year and I expect both to shine. For the Falcons to keep pace with an explosive Lions offense, they’ll need to get Bijan 20+ touches once again and provide a good return on a $7800 investment.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TRAVIS ETIENNE $6900 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Etienne did not have a strong game in Week 2 as KC held the Jaguars to just nine points in Week 2. But it wasn’t from lack of availability, as he saw 72% of the snaps. He’s now sitting at a 76% snap rate for the season, which is 6th in the NFL to date.

While we’re confident in Etienne’s role as the primary running back in Jacksonville’s offense, this is more about the Houston defense. After finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2022, the Texans are starting 2023 with a repeat in mind. According to DVOA, Houston is ranked 32nd in rushing defense. The biggest eye-opener is the Texans have already allowed six rushing touchdowns this season. The Colts steamrolled through Houston’s frontline and saw their RB Zach Moss post 20.7 DK points.

Doug Pederson is always a wild card and often needs to be reminded to run the ball. But he shouldn’t need any reminders this week, seeing the Texans’ struggles on defense this season.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6600 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Strap on your seatbelts because we’re ready for takeoff. If Lions RB David Montgomery can’t suit up this week, Jahmy Gibbs will be featured in a high-octane offense. And that should make us all very excited.

The talent is there, but the biggest question is opportunity. Even after Montgomery went down last week, Craig Reynolds received more carries (3) on the final two drives than Gibbs (0). Gibbs caught seven passes last week, including three in the fourth quarter.

The other tricky part will be Atlanta’s defense, as they rank 11th in rushing defense DVOA. However, they have allowed 4.5 ypc, 9th most in the league. And they allowed six catches to RBs in Week 1. So, if deployed correctly, Gibbs could have good chances in this game.

Overall, Gibbs is strictly a GPP play for me, and I’ll only consider him on DK as his lack of TDs and rushing yards/attempts make him hard to play on FD.

JAMES COOK $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

James Cook cashed our bet last week as he went over his rushing yards prop. But more importantly, he scored 22.6 DK points, which earned him top 5 value for RBs last week. Cook has been the lead back in Buffalo to date and has taken 60% of the snaps. The only concern is that he still needs to find the endzone, as Buffalo has used Damien Harris and Latavius Murray at the goal line. We all knew that was a possibility, but at least Cook is also active in the passing game, thus making up for lost points there.

His opponent this week, the Washington Commanders, rank in the top 10 in total defense DVOA. But they are 17th in rush defense DVOA, 17th in rushing yards allowed, and t24th in yards per carry. So, while the matchup looks tricky, there are yards to be had against this tough Commanders front. Keep an eye on Cook’s health but if he’s a go, I expect a full workload and one of the safer plays in Cash.

KENNETH WALKER III $6200 DraftKings $6400 FanDuel

While he only managed 2.5 ypc, Kenneth Walker lived up to his ownership last week by scoring 18.4 DK points against the Lions. Unlike James Cook above, Walker does see the goal line carries and was able to punch two in the endzone last week. That adds to his value, especially against the Panthers this week.

For all the talk of Zach Charbonnet taking carries away from Walker to ease back in from a preseason injury, Seattle’s starting RB has received 62% of the snaps and 72% of the touches.

This week he gets a juicy matchup against Carolina who allows the 3rd most points to RB’s. They’re also ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA. I expect Pete Carroll to take advantage of this matchup and lean heavily on his running game this week making Walker a very good play in DFS.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ALEXANDER MATTISON $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

The Vikings traded for RB Cam Akers this week in what some see as a move signaling concern with Mattison. The team came out today and inferred the trade was for depth, and they still have confidence in Mattison. And as I type this today, I believe that statement. If Mattison continues at a sub-4.0 ypc and has additional critical fumbles, their stance will swiftly change with a capable RB in town.

However, down the road doesn’t matter, and only this Sunday does; for that reason, I’m confident in Mattison’s potential against the LA Chargers. First, the Vikings have played the top two rushing defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed. That could partly be a reflection of Minnesota, but the Eagles and Bucs shut down quality running teams outside of the Vikings.

The other factor is the Chargers D is ranked 32nd in DVOA. Additionally, the Vikings have thrown the ball frequently and have 0 wins to show. I expect HC Kevin O’Connell to try to establish a run game and wear down the Chargers team, who is traveling for a 2nd consecutive week.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6100

It has yet to be pretty in Denver so far this season. Karma may be settling in on Sean Payton after his critical comments of each Broncos HC, Nathaniel Hackett. But whatever you want to call it, the Broncos starting 0-2 against non-playoff teams is highly disappointing. One of the few bright spots is the play of Javonte Williams. While he’s played under 50% of the snaps, he has 64% of the touches for Broncos RBs. And that should expand going forward as he provides the highest upside in the backfield.

The Broncos travel to Miami this week and must be ready for a track meet. The Dolphins have allowed 321 yards and a 4.9 ypc which is 5th most in the league in 2023. They are ranked 29th in rushing defense by DVOA. More importantly, the Dolphins have allowed 3.5 catches per game to RBs. We can confidently pencil in Williams for 15+ touches against a defense allowing big plays, which looks like a recipe for low floor and high ceiling this week in Florida.

KENDRE MILLER DraftKings $4300 FanDuel $4700

Miller has been cleared to play and has been a full participant in practice this week leading up to the Saints game in Green Bay. Miller was a 3rd round pick in this year’s NFL Draft, coming out of National Champion runner-up TCU. So there is obvious talent here, and the Saints have a prime opportunity to display that.

For one, Jamaal Williams is likely out with a hamstring injury. And two, he’s facing the Green Bay Packers, who just allowed 211 yards rushing to the Atlanta Falcons. It’s rare we have an RB priced this low with a potential for 20+ DK points. It’s a risk, but one I’m willing to take, especially against a GB team that has struggled against the run for 2+ seasons.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

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