Dave Gloeckner 
Week 1 has come and gone and we walked away a survivor as the Commanders had to comeback late in the game to beat the Arizona Cardinals. But it’s a W and we advance to Week 2 in our Survivor/Eliminator Pools. Plus we used a team in Washington that won’t be favored in many games going forward.
As for our bets, the Texans kept us from a sweep, but we’ll take 3-1 any week as the Browns, Packers and Bucs all covered as dogs and won outright. The most interesting note from the first week was that road teams went 12-4 ATS showing that homefield was not an advantage.
Week 2 will be tougher as ten of the fifteen games feature a spread of 3.5 or less. It also features seven home underdogs. There is some volatility in the market as well as we’re seeing high volume of bets coming in on certain teams.
So, let’s get moving and find some winners.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 3-1 (last week 3-1)
NFL BETS WEEK 2
TENNESSEE TITANS +2.5 vs LA CHARGERS
The Titans lost a nailbiter to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. While the result wasn’t surprising, the way the Titans did it was. Titans OC Tim Kelly had a run pass ratio of 37% to 63%. And that strategy didn’t pay off as the Titans were sacked four times and QB Ryan Tannehill completed less than 50% of his passes including three interceptions. Running back Derrick Henry touched the ball just five times after half.
That should all change this week as the Titans will need to feed the beast against the Chargers. That’s because LA’s defensive line is weak as they graded out as the 7th worst rush defense in Week 1.
And the Chargers did Chargers things in Week 1 as they lost another close game which is becoming a regularly scheduled program under HC Brandon Staley. Their star RB, Austin Ekeler, has been ruled out as well which takes away a key part to their offense.
These two teams played last season and the Chargers won 17-14 on a last second FG. That game was played in LA as the teams flip the home field this season. I’ll take the Titans in this matchup based on their advantage at the line of scrimmage and hopeful dedication to the run game.
ARIZONA CARDINALS +4.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS
Arizona is considered by many to be the worst team in the NFL. But the Giants looked like the worst team in football in Week 1 as they lost to their Division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, by a score of 40-0. And now they have to get on a plane and travel west for their Week 2 matchup against the Cardinals.
The one matchup I like in this game is Arizona’s pass rush versus the Giants offensive line. New York graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocking unit in Week 1. Yes, it was against a ferocious Dallas front seven, but the O-line was a concern in NY before the season started. And they did nothing to ease that concern against the Cowboys.
Also the Cardinals new HC Jonathan Gannon is familiar with the Giants as he faced them three times last season as DC for the Eagles. He had success keeping Jones in the pocket and creating pressure. He’ll likely try to do something similar this week.
The public is all in on the Giants this week as 82% of the bets have come in on New York. Last week, there were eight teams that received over 70% of bets and those teams went 3-5 ATS.
Last piece of information that is important is the Cardinals have won the last four meetings in this series. It’s not one played often, but when they have played Arizona has fared well. I’ll take the Cardinals this week and fade the public as I see them being able to stay in this game similar to their contest against Washington last week.
DETROIT LIONS -4 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Betting the Lions as a favorite is a scary proposition as they aren’t often in this position. Last season they were a favorite in five games and went 3-2 straight up and ATS. One of those games was against these same Seattle Seahawks and the Lions ended up losing that game 48-45. And you also have the Dan Campbell factor as he will do something extraordinary which will energize or implode the Lions chances. Last week his fake punt call ignited a Lions drive that resulted in a touchdown.
The reason I do like Detroit this week is because they didn’t play their best offensive game in Week 1 but still found a way to upset the Super Bowl Champs. They should be able to move the ball effectively against a Seattle D that allowed almost 500 yards of total offense to the Rams. In fact, Seattle rated out as the 30th ranked D in DVOA.
There’s also the rest factor in play as Detroit has been off since last Thursday. Case in point, the Bills upset the Super Bowl Champions, LA Rams, in Week 1 of 2022 and followed that up with a 41-7 route of the Titans in Week 2.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS (MNF)
This line has moved 3.5 points since it opened as Pittsburgh favored by one point. It is a classic overreaction to how poorly the Steelers played in Week 1 and how well the Browns played. While it’s possible the Browns are going to be good this season, they caught the Bengals at the right time as Joe Burrow was rusty coming off a calf injury.
As for the Steelers, they could never get going against a great 49ers defense. QB Kenny Pickett was pressing the action and ended up throwing two interceptions. I still have my concerns about Pickett, but he’s better than what he showed in Week 1.
And simply put, the Steelers are a great rebound team under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is 34-12 at home coming off a loss. Additionally, the Browns have lost 19 straight regular season games in Pittsburgh (they won a playoff game at Acrisure Stadium in 2020 but the noted streak is regular season futility). This is a house of horrors for the Browns, and I just don’t think one win, as impressive as it was, makes them a deserved favorite. I’ll take the Steelers and expect TJ Watt to have a huge game on MNF.
SURVIVOR PICK
BUFFALO BILLS
Josh Allen is his own worst enemy as he showed against the Jets on Monday. The Bills QB had four costly turnovers which factored into Buffalo not being able to put the game away. He is reckless but also one of the best QB’s in the league. Which sums up the pain of being a Bills fan.
But they have an opportunity to take their frustrations out on the Raiders this week. The Bills struggle in close games. But so do the Raiders as they are 5-9 in one score games in the past two seasons. And Las Vegas has to travel for the second consecutive week which is a challenging task.
I’m nervous about the Bills this year but think this is a great spot to use them in Survivor. So let’s rise Bills Mafia and take out your frustrations on a Raiders team that will be happy to start the season 1-1.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
