Allan Fabrykant 
GRASSO V SHEVCHENKO 2
We’re back state side with a action packed fight card for Noche UFC!. Today’s fights will kick off at 7:00 PM ET!! Many of top Mexican talents will be taking part in today’s action and I can’t wait to break it all down for you. Get ready because this will be one banger of a card! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight, there will be 11 fights ending with a title fight for the Women’s Flyweight Division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for Noche UFC Grasso vs Shevchenko 2.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso
Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of good value bets that are immediately jumping out to me on this card, there are some underdogs that have been mispriced (ie Alex Reyes) but I also think that they are not in a good position to win the fight, even if the bet provides good value. However, even though Valentina is the favorite and rising by the hour, I think there is still a decent amount of value in taking Shevchenko to win straight up. Yes, I am not alone in this prediction, far from it. But let’s face facts, Shevchenko’s hand speed and more importantly her kicking speed is unparalleled in her division, nobody is really even close and for the first few rounds of her first title fight against Grasso, Shevchenko was putting on the pace and would have been in a good position to win the fight had it not been for the flash knockdown and submission. I think it is not a stretch for me to say that Valentina is clearly the better fighter but in this rematch situation, it is going to be more of a mental game than anything. They’ve had six months to let everything sink in and we will see what Valentina is capable of and how strong her perseverance is. From what I have seen out of her thus far throughout her career, I think she will have a strong bounce-back performance and will look sharper than ever.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Valentina Shevchenko FOURTH-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Lupita Godinez vs. Elise Reed
Just to start things off here, Elise Reed is downright terrible, she only won her last fight few fights when facing worse opponents. Now, coming up against a true rising star in Loopy Godinez, Reed’s luck is going to run out. Right away we should notice a speed and technique difference between these two fighters. Statistically, Godinez lands more shots (SLpM 4.16 vs 2.95) and defends better (Strike Defence 62% to 53%) while also using her grappling far more effectively than Elise Reed. Reed will have a slight advantage in height and reach but Godinez more than makes up for it in talent. Even though their records are somewhat close, it doesn’t tell the full story, Godinez has fought much stronger opponents and has had more consistent success throughout her UFC career. Honestly, as the odds suggest, this is a one-sided matchup. It’s going to look like one side is playing checkers while the other side is playing chess.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Lupita Godinez UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible THIRD-ROUND SUBMISSION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd
Kopylov is coming off of three straight finishes and each one looked more vicious than the last. Coming into this fight Kopylov will be looking to ride on his current momentum into a shot at the top 15 of the Middleweight division. Fremd on the other hand has been very lucky in his matchmaking as he got paired up with two fighters who had some glaring holes that Fremd was able to take advantage of. Unfortunately for Fremd, Kopylov will very likely be too much for him to handle. Fremd really likes to trade shots slowly from the outside and avoid the dirty boxing. However, Kopylov is very much the opposite, he loves getting into scraps and he is willing to eat a few shots to give out a crushing shot of his own. Another key stat of Kopylov’s is his 90% takedown defence. Not only has Kopylov rarely been taken down in fights but as he has gone on throughout his UFC career, his takedown defence has shown clear improvements. Ultimately, Fremd is going to have a really hard time establishing his fight style early on and will struggle a lot when trying to compete with Kopylov on the feet and as the fight goes on I know we will see another big knockout for Kopylov’s highlight reel.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Roman Kopylov SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Jack Della Maddelena (I will most likely stay away from this one betting wise but I do think JDM is a clear favorite and I doubt we will be able to get him at odds this good again. The only thing to keep in mind is that Holland is a really good fighter and some underestimate him going into the fight and end up getting surprised later on)
Raul Rosas Jr. (These odds are wild and there is still a massive hype train around this kid, I think he’s got this win in the bag but -700 is a lot. If you can fit him in without squeezing him into a lineup he is a good DFS option and for folks looking at Rosas for a Parlay piece it would be best to take him on a Double Chance (Submission or Decision) at -175)
Daniel Zellhuber
Fernando Padilla
Edgar Chairez
Jasmine Jasudavicius (FADE) (This fight is close and either way, I see this one going to the Judges’ Table. I really don’t feel confident in either fighter in this one. Sportsbook betters would be best off taking this fight to go the distance at -350)
Charlie Campbell
Josefine Knutsson (by Decision -105)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Roman Kopylov (Double Chance KO/Decision) -225
Valentina Shevchenko (Double Chance KO/Decision) -105
Daniel Zellhuber (Double Chance KO/Decision) -145
Fernando Padilla (Double Chance KO/Decision) -120
