Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Sweet Spot here at WinDaily Sports. We’re fresh off an exciting MNF game that ended in shocking fashion. But we’re also left with the aftermath of a dreadful injury to Aaron Rodgers which just shows the Jets are cursed. As for the MLB action, we saw shocking results across the card including the A’s tossing a shutout against the Astros. Yes, the hapless A’s pitching staff really did shut out the formidable Houston bats. And we also saw the Angels win in extra innings against the Mariners which pushed Seattle on the outside of the playoff bubble. With less than 20 games left in the season, one thing is assured and that’s the fact the pennant races in both Leagues will be hot!
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projections Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:07 p.m. with 11 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:07 PM Start
FREDDY PERALTA ($11,800 DK)
If you’re a frequent reader of the Sweet Spot then you know I don’t like to use the top pitchers on a big slate because there are typically cheaper options that can get you bigger returns. However, it’s hard to look away from the juicy matchup that the Brewers SP has tonight. First, Peralta is a different pitcher at home. In his last four home starts he’s averaging 34.2 DK points per game. That’s because he’s racked up 45 K’s in 24.1 innings pitched in those specific outings. He is more comfortable in his home park and it shows as he strikes out three more batters per nine innings in Milwaukee.
As for the Marlins, they have struggled against good starting pitching of late. Four of the last five starting pitchers they’ve faced have limited them to two runs or less. And three of those SP’s didn’t allow a run. In the last week they are batting 0.222 as a team, 27th in the MLB, and have a 22% K rate. Add to that, the projected Marlins starting lineup has a 29% K rate against Peralta. Good spot to rack up 8+ K’s which is the primary reason to even consider a pitcher at this salary.
JUSTIN VERLANDER ($10,700 DK)
This will be a popular play tonight as Verlander gets the ball against one of the weaker offenses in baseball, the Oakland A’s. Of recent, the A’s have a 29.6% K rate over the past week. For the season, the A’s own the 4th highest K rate and have the lowest BA and wOBA in the league.
Verlander has only faced projected A’s starters ~30 times. But in those at-bats, Oakland’s hitters are batting just 0.120 off the Astros ace. Add to that Verlander is 4-1 in his past five starts and we have a good opportunity with a pitcher trending up and a vulnerable offense.
JOE RYAN ($9500 DK)
As evidenced in my first two plays, the top-of-the-line pitchers are our best targets tonight. And that includes Joe Ryan of the Twins as he takes the mound against the Rays tonight. We all know the Rays offense is formidable but they are also very streaky. Since the calendar turned to September, the Rays have found difficulties at the plate. Tampa is batting 0.244 (22nd) with a 24.1% K rate (10th) this month. Both values are well below their season-long totals where they have a top 7 offense in batting average, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.
As for Ryan, he’s had a disappointing season registering a career-high 4.21 ERA. But his splits are much better at home where his ERA is 3.77 and he strikes out 1.5 more batters per nine innings. He’s never faced Tampa is his career which should give him an advantage especially the first two times through the lineup.
BRYAN WOO ($7900 DK)
Woo takes us on twists and turns more than an average roller coaster. His stuff can be tantalizing as witnessed by his high K numbers in six of his fourteen starts. But then there are nights like his last outing when he allowed five ERs, walked three, and struck out zero. So the question is which Bryan Woo will we get tonight versus the Angels? For GPP purposes, he’s the ideal candidate to take down a slate due to his low floor and high ceiling.
The Angels broke out for eight runs last night but are still batting just 0.230 in the month of September. There’s no Ohtani, Trout, or Rendon. And lest not forget the sweeping of the roster letting the likes of Renfroe walk away for nothing. This lineup is filtered with aging veterans and young players hopeful to make an impression for next year. A perfect mix for a pitcher looking to make a case for the postseason roster.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JOSE BUTTO ($6300 DK)
Butto is coming off the best start of his MLB career where he racked up 18.1 DK points versus Washington. In that outing, he struck out a career-high six batters. He now has a 28.9% K rate which is exactly what we look for in the value bin. Add to that the Diamondbacks are batting 0.238 over the past two weeks, good for 26th in the MLB.
BONUS PICKS
I also like MAX SCHERZER ($11,300 DK) and ZAC LITTEL ($6700 DK) today.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:07 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the METS (vs. Arizona), the ASTROS (vs Oakland), the RANGERS (vs. Toronto), the PADRES (vs. LAD), and the CUBS (vs. Colorado).
CORE BATTERS
CHAS MCCORMICK ($4500 DK)
The Astros won’t get shut down by the A’s pitching staff for a second straight game. The A’s SP tonight, JP Sears, has been decent of late but has faced Houston twice this year allowing 7 ERs with 3 home runs. McCormick is 3 for 5 in his career off Sears and has one home run. We won’t be able to afford all the big bats in the Astros lineup unless we dip low with two SPs. So instead, I’ll be looking at the bottom half of this order for my stacks (with maybe a wraparound to Altuve).
For stacking, I like JOSE ALTUVE, JOSE ABREU, JEREMY PENA, MAURICIO DUBON, and MARTIN MALDANADO.
CODY BELLINGER ($6300 DK)
The best stack to pay up for tonight is the Cubs. They get to face SP Chris Flexen and his 7.36 ERA. The added benefit is the game is in Coors, which as you know is a great hitter park. So let’s start with the Cub’s best hitter in Bellinger who is 6th in baseball with a 0.317 batting average.
For stacking, I like CHRIS MOREL, JAMEIR CANDELARIO, NICO HOERNER, DANSBY SWANSON, and MIKE TAUCHMAN.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
TBD
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