Dave Gloeckner 
WinDaily Sports has officially launched our new website, and we are flying high into Week 1 of the NFL Season. As our content has focused on DFS in years past, we also recognize that sports betting is a premium. With that, we’ve launched our sports betting page, where you can find our official picks, including mine, that are officially logged and tracked by our partners at Tallysight.
That said, I wanted to bring you my approach to NFL sports betting. Joining pools that have all 16 games per week is a challenging proposition.
Often, savvy sports bettors are good with aligning their picks to a smaller set of games. And that’s why the Vegas Super Contest became so famous amongst professional sports bettors. The Super Contest presents a format where players select their top 4 bets and are ranked accordingly based on their outcome.
So, I will bring you my top four games each week and track them against the Vegas Super Contest participants.
I will also provide a pick for a popular pool that many casual and avid fans play called an Eliminator or Survivor Pool. You must pick one team to win on any given week in this format. The catch is if that team loses, you are out of the pool.
And if your team wins, you can’t select them again for the rest of the season. I’ve won several of these in the past years, and my strategy is simple: WIN the week don’t WAIT! Only canvass the future a little, and instead, focus on the now.
NFL BETS WEEK 1
GREEN BAY PACKERS -1 at CHICAGO BEARS
The Chicago Bears are the darlings of many mainstream media pundits across America.
The Bears had the most cap space available in Free Agency and went out and signed several vital FAs to bolster their Offensive Line and Defensive front seven. They also traded out of the number one spot in the NFL Draft and added assets such as dynamic WR DJ Moore. But this team was still one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL last year, allowing the most points. They also had the largest point differential. For all the changes made, they still will incur growing pains along the way. And Justin Fields is still a work in progress. Even though everyone wants to believe he will thrive with weapons, DJ Moore will have one of his toughest matchups of the season facing up against Ja’ire Alexander.
Then there’s the Packers’ side of things. They were comfortable moving on from Aaron Rodgers, and they had seen QB Jordan Love grow in his shadows over the past three seasons. Quarterbacks from his draft class, such as Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert, have already thrived and proven themselves.
It was time to see if Love could meet those similar expectations in what could become one of the best QB classes ever. The Packers did take a step back last season but had 39 wins from 2019 through 2021.
This team still has the coaching staff intact that knows how to win. And they will do just that, behind a new face at QB, in Week 1.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +5.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Buccaneers are considered one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023. And that was expected since NFL icon and G.O.A.T. Tom Brady announced his retirement, and Tampa had no firm succession plan. But admittedly, Brady was more of a detriment to the Bucs play in 2022 than he was a benefit. That was because Tampa succeeded in feeding the beast and led the league in pass percentage, though their QB was limited in his downfield accuracy.
They will change with the Baker at QB this year and be much more balanced. Which will be to their advantage, especially in Week 1.
That’s because the Vikings still project to have one of the worst defenses in the league in 2023. DVOA projects Minnesota to have a bottom-three defense and starts them as the 32nd-ranked unit in the NFL. Additionally, Minnesota won an NFL record 11 games by one score or less in 2022. Regression is ahead for the Skol Nation. And while they could still turn a win in Week 1, most of the public is on Minnesota, with 60% of the tickets aligned to the Vikings, yet the spread has dropped from 6.5 to 5.5.
This is a great spot to fade the public and take the points.
HOUSTON TEXANS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens have made significant moves in the offseason and are now officially in “put up” or “shut up” mode. And as I wrote about them in my AFC North preview, there is much to like about John Harbaugh’s team. But I have my reservations early in the season as transitioning from long-time OC Greg Roman to Todd Monken could take time. And with that, they will incur some bruises early in the season.
The Texans also have a significant turnover in personnel as they bring in new HC DeMeco Ryans and #2 pick QB CJ Stroud. The Texans announced Stroud will start in Week 1 and with that, they will also be patient and take whatever punches, direct hits, or grazing blows are thrown at them. Because of shrewd offseason moves, the Texans are not deplete of talent adding critical pieces in FA and the draft (DE Will Anderson and WR Tank Dell to name a few).
This team is in a good place to compete, and maybe sooner than later.
Simply put, 9.5 points is too much for me to lay with a team like the Ravens in Week 1. I like Baltimore to be a factor in the AFC all season, but I’ll side with the dog in this battle. We’re seeing 58% of the bets on the Ravens so far.
CLEVELAND BROWNS +2.5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS
Smokin’ Joe Burrow missed most of the preseason and training camp due to a calf injury. And while he’s cleared to play in Week 1 against Cleveland, that will be a definitive issue for the Bengals offense.
Cleveland went 1-1 against Cincinnati in 2022. They held Burrow in check as he threw for an average of 230 yards per game against the Browns D. That was partly because Cleveland struggled against the run, which Cincy doesn’t do effectively. But it’s also because the Browns have a solid defensive backfield that matches up well with the Bengals passing game. Then there’s the fact that Cleveland took their lumps last year with Deshaun Watson learning a new offense and serving an 11-game suspension. But he’s now thoroughly indoctrinated into Kevin Stefanski’s offense, and I believe they are a team that’s more ready in Week 1 and will have the upper hand against their cross-state rivals. Remember, Cincy lost to Pittsburgh in Week 1 last season and started the year 0-2 before winning 12 of their final 14 games.
SURVIVOR PICK
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
You will likely never have another chance to take the Commanders as such a heavy favorite. Arizona has a projected win total of 3.5 and may not be favored in any game this season.
They’ve also decided to start journeyman QB Joshua Dobbs over rookie QB Clayton Tune, which further magnifies the problems, and lack of skill, they have on the roster. The Commanders boast a top 10 defense, and this is a great landing spot for QB Sam Howell to open his inaugural season as starting signal caller.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
