We are so back! The NFL Season kicks off tonight, and with that, we get the opportunity to start our 18-week-long journey of setting fantasy lineups. This weekend brings us a plethora of backs to choose from, as we have the typical high-priced studs but also a significant amount of parity with backs in the lower salary ranges. That’s because it’s week one, and the main DFS sites started their salary projections many weeks ago, which now leaves us with considerable value based on training camp and preseason changes.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out the NFL Pre Lock Show on Sunday at 11am on YouTube.

Each week I highlight my favorite ten RB’s and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 1 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

AUSTIN EKELER $8400 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

The most significant question mark about Austin Ekeler coming into the 2023 season is whether he can repeat his 20 TD performance from 2022. And while he may not reach that apex, he certainly is one of the best running backs to roster on any given week. That especially rings true in Week 1 as he matches up against the Miami Dolphins and their middle-of-the-road run defense.

First, the Dolphins/Chargers game has the highest total of the weekend at 51 points. That is 3.5 points higher than the next closest game between the Browns and Bengals. For that reason alone, we’ll need to get our shares of Miami and Los Angeles players.

The Miami Dolphins defense is the other reason to trust Ekeler. The Dolphins ended up 4th in rushing defense DVOA a season ago. And they allowed the 6th fewest rushing yards in the league in 2022. But hiding in that is the fact they allowed the 15th most fantasy points to running backs last year. The Dolphins D struggled in the passing game against RBs allowing the 7th most receptions (5.5 rec/gm) and 3rd most TDs (6). And some of the teams ahead of them were the Raiders and Chiefs, who, if they didn’t play against Ekeler twice, would have seen a reduction in their numbers.

Yes, the Dolphins hired Vic Fangio to run the defense this year. Yes, they added Jalen Ramsey and other talented defenders in the offseason. But I still project Ekeler for 6+ catches and at least 1 TD. With those numbers alone, his floor is ~20 points, making him a safe play this weekend especially since there are discounts at every position. NOTE: Austin Ekeler is a better value on DK than FD this week.

BIJAN ROBINSON $8000 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel

Bijan Robinson will be a workhorse in Atlanta this season. We’ve already seen HC Arthur Smith decide to keep him out of preseason games, treating him like a veteran who doesn’t need the extra wear and tear. And we all know the Falcons invested a top-10 pick on a non-premium position, meaning they were convinced of Robinson’s star potential, seeing him as a unicorn worthy of over-drafting.

As for his opponent, the Carolina Panthers were 17th in run defense DVOA in 2022. And they allowed the 18th most points to fantasy RBs last year. Last year, the Falcons combined for 302 yards rushing against the Panthers with a 4.8 ypc.

Even more critical is that Atlanta’s offensive line ranks 7th, according to Pro Football Focus. Their RG, Chris Lindstrom, was rated as the best blocking guard in the league last year. Now, they get to pave the way for a highly skilled runner. Watch out!

JOSH JACOBS $7700 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel

Jacobs is back with the Raiders, and for now, he’s happy. We’ll see how long that lasts as he’s on his second consecutive one-year contract with the Silver and Black. He opens up with a favorable matchup, as Denver was ranked 21st in run defense DVOA last year.

The Raiders RB eclipsed the 100-yard mark in both games against Denver last year, totaling 253 rushing yards. He averaged 29.8 DK points in those two outings and added eight catches to his stat line. Jacobs’s floor is similar to Ekeler’s, and I expect him to have a breakout week based on his past success versus the Broncos.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JOE MIXON $6800 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

I’m high on Joe Mixon this season as he is one of the most prominent candidates to have a bounce-back season. He disappointed many owners in 2022 as he had just one game over 21.5 DK points, which was his outing versus Carolina when he scored five TDs and racked up 58.1 DK points. But the good news for Mixon this year is that Semaje Perine is off to Denver, leaving him with just 4th year RB Treyveon Williams, 3rd year RB Chris Evans and rookie RB Chase Brown as competition in the backfield. Based on that quartet of backs, Mixon looks to be the primary ball carrier and receiver this year on one of the NFL’s best offenses.

As for Week 1, he faces the Browns, who were 26th in run defense DVOA and allowed the 7th most rushing yards. Cleveland did make moves to sure up the defensive front by signing Zadarius Smith and Dalvin Thompson. But they allowed 22 rushing TDs last season, 3rd most in the league, which the Bengals will try to take advantage of with Mixon in week 1.

J.K. Dobbins $6600 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

Injuries over the past two seasons have hampered J.K. Dobbins. After bursting on the scene in 2020 with a staggering 6.0 yards/carry in 15 games played, Dobbins tore his ACL and missed all of the 2021 season and half of the 2022 season. However, now that he’s fully healthy, the Ravens are prepared to make him the featured back in a historically run-heavy offense.

His reward in Week 1 is facing the worst rushing defense from 2022 in the Houston Texans. The Texans did hire former San Francisco DC DeMeco Ryans as their HC. And his first focus will be to improve an awful run defense. But it will be picking your poison against this newly outfitted Ravens offense as they have given Lamar Jackson the most talented receiving corps to throw to in his career. Therefore, there will still be plenty of room to run for the Ravens, and they will do it with a steady dose of Dobbins.

AARON JONES $6300 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel

This price point is a discount compared to where Jones would have been in years past with Aaron Rodgers under center. And he may be worth more without #8 wearing a Packers jersey because Green Bay will have to commit more to the run to help QB Jordan Love ease into the starting role. Plus, the Bears were 29th in run defense DVOA in 2022, and they only added a little to that side of the ball in Free Agency as their biggest splash was LB Tremaine Edwards. The Bears are still light up front, and I expect the Packers to take advantage of that in Week 1 with both Jones and AJ Dillon.

CAM AKERS $6200 DraftKings $6600 FanDuel

Cam Akers won many people some money last season as he was one of the best RBs down the home stretch in 2022. In the final six games of last year, Akers averaged 72% of the snaps at RB. Add to that the Rams offensive line will be better in 2023. While the Rams had significant injuries across their team, the O-line incurred the most, including three starters missing more than ten games each. LA invested in a lineman in the draft using their first pick on G Steve Avilia.

Add to that the Seahawks were 24th in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th most rushing TDs in the league (21). There also is little competition in the backfield in LA, leading to the possibility of a high workload this Sunday.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

RACHAAD WHITE DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6400

The Buccaneers RB is in line for a high-volume workload in Tampa this year. White is projected to be the top runner and could be a three-down back. His only competition is Ke’Shaun Vaughn and Chase Edmonds, who both project as pass catchers with low-volume usage rates.

While the Bucs may not be very good, they will increase their rushing attempts this year with Tom Brady gone and retired. Additionally, White is an excellent pass catcher, and we have an RB with 20+ touch potential. He also faces the Vikings defense in Week 1 as they were 18th in run defense DVOA in 2022. And they allowed 18 rushing TDs, the 9th highest in football. This salary is likely the lowest we’ll see White’s salary all year and, for that reason, should be strongly considered for both GPP and Cash.

KHALIL HERBERT DraftKings $5300 FanDuel $6100

This one feels like a smash play this week as Herbert faces the Packers, one of the worst run defenses in the league last year. Green Bay ended up ranked 31st against the run, according to DVOA metrics. And they allowed an average of 136 yards per game on the ground.

If preseason told us anything, Justin Fields looks more comfortable, and Khalil Herbert is RB #1 in Chicago. The Bears had the #1 running offense in the league in 2022, and that should only benefit more with additions to the O-line and Fields growth. Expect Herbert to be the biggest beneficiary of that and explode in Week 1.

DEON JACKSON DraftKings $4100 FanDuel $5600

We still need to determine precisely what the Colts will do with the RB situation. But the price of Deon Jackson is too low for us to dismiss him. It’s so low that he will be one of the higher-owned backs on the slate this week. DraftKings posted his salary when Jonathan Taylor was projected to be the starting RB in Indy. But now, with Zach Moss being questionable, Jackson will likely get the start and see the majority of the touches.

And let’s not ignore the favorable matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville had the 12th ranked run defense according to DVOA but allowed the 11th most fantasy points to RB’s. And now Indy has a dual-threat QB in Anthony Richardson that could cause fits for a defensive front while also opening holes for Jackson.

RB PROP BETS

BIJAN ROBINSON over 69.5 rushing yards

Carolina allowed over 250 rushing yards to Atlanta last season. More importantly, the Panthers are without star DE Brian Burns. Arthur Smith needs to prove it this year and he cant’ be cautious so I expect Bijan to be in line for 20+ carries and easily surpass his total.

RACHAAD WHITE over 2.5 receptions

We all know Baker Mayfield is not very good. So he will have to check it down to his RB’s early and often. Add to that Minnesota is projected as the 32nd total defense according to DVOA and we have a quality matchup worth exploiting in Week 1.

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

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