Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday edition of The Sweet Spot. Last night’s DFS card was pretty straightforward. If you had an Astros stack then you were cashing. Houston’s 17 run outburst on Tampa helped fuel many owners into pole position. There were other big numbers on the board in Oakland, KC, Washington and Atlanta that also helped people turn in profits. As for the pitching, Yu Darvish’s gem against one of the best offenses in baseball was something you needed to have to be at the top of the leaderboard.
Today’s card features thin pitching at the top and the bats should once again reign supreme. But that also means we’ll need to get an arm right as it will be critical to cashing today.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 8 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 8 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
JESUS LUZARDO ($11,000 DK)
Luzardo is the only pitcher above $10K on the slate today. And it’s for good reason as he’s home and facing one of the weaker lineups in the league.
At home, Luzardo has been electric. He is 4-2 with a 2.32 ERA and 96 K’s in 73.2 innings. And opponents are hitting just 0.196 off the Marlins LHP in Miami. In his last 3 home starts alone, he’s allowed just 1 ER and averaged 32 DK points.
As for his opponent, the Detroit Tigers. They own a 0.230 batting average which is good for 28th lowest in baseball. In other key hitting categories, they are 27th in ISO, 28th in wOBA and 29th in OPS. The Tigers also strike out at a clip of 23.7% which is 9th highest in the MLB.
KENTA MAEDA ($8500 DK)
We look to attack another weak offense on today’s slate in the Kansas City Royals. Yes, the Royals have exploded for 19 runs over the first two games of their series against Minnesota. Which is even more reason to like Twins SP Kenta Maeda today as they don’t have the firepower to keep up this kind of high octane offense. That’s because they are 25th in the MLB in batting average and 28th in wOBA.
As for Maeda, he had his best outing of the season a few starts ago against these same Royals. In that outing, he went 7 innings and struck out a season-high 9 batters. Additionally, his FIP is 1.2 runs lower than his 4.62 ERA showing positive regression is on the horizon. I will wager that starts today and Maeda has a repeat performance against Kansas City.
MICHAEL KOPECH ($7400 DK)
Kopech is an all or nothing type of pitcher. He can win you slates and also blow them up completely. His FIP is actually 1.4 runs higher than his actual ERA showing he may be getting slightly fortunate this season. But his 25% K rate and 9.89 K/9 inning make him playable in certain matchups.
And today feels like one of those days as he faces a Guardians team that is struggling to score runs. Over the past 2 games in this series, Cleveland has scored just 2 runs. White Sox SP’s, Touissant and Clevinger, have tossed 10 shutout innings in that span. Add to that Kopech is 1-0 with a 0.91 ERA and 9 K’s against Cleveland this year and we have as good of a spot for a wildly inconsistent pitcher today.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
KYLE HENDRICKS ($6800 DK)
Hendricks has been steady all season posting a respectable 3.46 ERA. While he doesn’t have a high K rate, he has averaged 4.8 K’s over his past 6 starts. Tonight he gets the Cardinals who have a formidable offense but are just 18th in batting over the past 10 days. They’ve also scored just 6 runs in the first 3 games of their series against the Cubs. I’ll take my chances that we can squeeze some value out of Hendricks tonight.
BONUS PICKS
I do like TARIK SKUBAL ($8700 DK) and CHRISTOPHER SANCHEZ ($7200 DK) today. Skubal has the highest ERA to FIP differential on the board today with his FIP sitting at a sterling 1.28. He also has a 35.4% K rate over his first 4 starts which is extremely impressive.
Sanchez faces the worst hitting team since the All Star Break in the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s also been pitching lights out allowing 3 ER’s or less in all 8 of his starts.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the PHILLIES (vs. Pittsburgh), the METS (vs. Washington), the BRAVES (vs. Milwaukee), the WHITE SOX (vs. Cleveland), and the CUBS (vs. St Louis).
CORE BATTERS
MARCELL OZUNA ($4100 DK)
The Braves bats are always in play but I’m particularly bullish on Marcell Ozuna today. The Atlanta OF has 3 home runs in the past two games and has put up 64 DK points over that span. He has a cold stretch coming into the series with Milwaukee but he’s snapped out of it in a big way and I’m going to ride that hot streak.
For stacking, I like EDDIE ROSARIO, ORLANDO ARCIA, MICHAEL HARRIS, MATT OLSON and SEAN MURPHY. I’m trying to circle around the middle and bottom of this order today so I can have some money for pitching.
LUIS ROBERT JR ($6000 DK)
The White Sox young star is now up to 29 home runs on the season after connecting for one on Friday night. He’s been one of the top hitters in baseball all season as he is in the top 30 in hits, runs scored and RBI’s. Today he gets Aaron Civale who he is 5 for 14 against with 1 home run.
For stacking, I like YOAN MONCADA, TIM ANDERSON, ELOY JIMENEZ, and JAKE BURGER.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
CHRISTIAN VAZQUEZ ($2800 DK)
The Twins catcher has been hitting well of late as he has 5 hits in his last 3 games. Additionally, he is 11 for 28 with 3 career home runs off Royals SP Ryan Yarbrough.
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