Allan Fabrykant 
UFC Vegas 78
LUQUE V DOS ANJOS
This week we’re back in Vegas for another BIG Fight Night card! Today’s fights will kick off at 4:00 PM ET. There’s a lot of talent taking the octagon tonight and many of these fights are shaping up to be bangers! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights ending with two Welterweights looking to crack into the top 10. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 78 Luque vs Dos Anjos.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Vicente Luque vs Rafael Dos Anjos
Again, I will have to break the trend of not picking the main event in the article but for this fight I am honestly shocked at the betting line. Now yes, RDA is a legend who is coming off a win, I am not taking anything away from what he has done throughout his career and yes Luque has dropped his last two fights but Luque coming in as an underdog is simply bonkers to me. Luque is one of the best power punchers in the Welterweight division and RDA at 38 years old definitely does not have enough chin left to compete with someone who was ranked 4th in the Welterweight division last year. This is going to be a great fight and at five rounds, you will definitely get DFS value on either side of this fight but given Luque’s significantly higher strike differential coupled with a decent takedown defense, I see Luque having a clear advantage in this fight. (FIVE ROUND FIGHT)
MY UFC DFS PICK: Vicente Luque SECOND ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Josh Fremd vs. Jaime Pickett
Honestly, I don’t know how Pickett has finessed his way into another UFC fight but it has become clear that he is simply not at the level to compete here. Even though Fremd is no world beater, he has more than enough skill to take care of Pickett. Especially when taking a look at Fremd’s impressive grappling ability as we saw in Fremd’s last win against Sedriques Dumas. Pickett is coming into this fight with a negative strike differential in over his UFC career and with only two wins over his last seven UFC fights, I don’t see his UFC career extending too far beyond this fight. (Important to note that Fremd ddid miss weight and the fight will proceed at a catchweight)
MY UFC DFS PICK: Josh Fremd SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Marcus McGhee vs. JP Buys
JP Buys is another example of a fighter who has surprised me by being able to get another fight booked in the octagon. Buys is 1-4 between the UFC and Contender Series, and even his one win, in the Contender Series was not without controversy as a seemingly locked in choke was not as tight as it appeared causing some questions after the referee stopped the fight. Since the shaky win, Buys has lost three straight fights and hasn’t fought in over a year. McGhee has impressed in his UFC career thus far with a short notice win over Journey Newsome and it’s important to note that Buys is the fighter who is coming into this matchup on short notice and I doubt he was given much choice in the matter. Considering where Buys is at in his career, I don’t see him competing at this level and I don’t expect his UFC career to extend far past this fight either.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Marcus McGhee FIRST-ROUND KO
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Hakeem Dawodu
Khalil Roundtree (I think this fight is a little closer than the odds suggest, but Daukaus has had three big KOs and I don’t know if he’s going to be able to bounce back and take a lot of what Roundtree throws out there. Roundtree doesn’t mess around, he hits and kicks with a lot of powr)
Iasmin Lucindo FADE
Francis Marshall
Martin Buday
Jaqueline Amorim (via Submission or Decision, double chance)
AJ Dobson
Da’mon Blackshear
Juliana Miller FADE
Terrance McKinney
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Marcus McGhee -350
Josh Fremd -350
Terrance McKinney -275
