DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Who is going to win the Super Bowl? If you believe the hype, that is what we are meant to believe this event is to golf. Sure, we will likely remember the Major championships over this in many instances. And make what you will of the rather strange format and its many critics. But, winning here and lifting the FedEx Cup trophy is a goal of any elite player. For many, it may well be the pinnacle of their career in a world where professional golf is perhaps the most competitive it has ever been and Majors so hard to come by. So, albeit it likely behind the four Majors and The Players for prestige and it’s quirky starting strokes, we are still in for one hell of a week. And we are here to deep-dive into everything you need to know behind our Tour Championship Picks!
East Lake Course Analysis
East Lake Golf Club will play host to the Tour Championship once again, as it has done continuously since 2004. As a par 70 that plays to 7,346 yards from the tips, it is one of the longer par 70 courses we see on tour.
We are again presented with rather unique zoysiagrass fairways. This features at TPC Southwind and TPC Craig Ranch. This sturdy grass is polarizing with some describe it like hitting off a tee, whilst others are not so fond due to it’s propensity to produce the occasional flyer.
Although water only features on 6 holes, it is prominent in each instance. Combined with 2.5 inch bermudagrass and tree-lined fairways, we see an uptick in driving accuracy as a predictor of success here for our Tour Championship picks.
As always, remember that bermudagrass is generally more penal than Kentucky bluegrass, despite being 2.5 inches compared to the 4 inches last week. The fairways here are the thinnest of the regular tour events, averaging just 25 yards wide at the 300 yards mark.
These factors, along with the 2nd longest set of par 3s on tour with 3 over 200 yards, leads to a disproportionate number of approach shots occurring from over 200 yards. Players often club down off the tee to try find the short grass and avoid danger. This approach range will constitute over 30% of all approach shots. It should be weighted accordingly for your Tour Championship picks.
We are back to bermudagrass greens here again. The greens typically rate as some of the easiest on tour for putting difficulty, particularly within 5 feet.
Weather for our Tour Championship Picks
Despite the ease of putting here typically, do note there has been a lack of rain in Atlanta since June. This could see greens play lightning quick this year. Further, fairways could be even harder to find to usual with the firm and quick conditions seeing balls bounce hard into the thick grass.
With just 30 players in the field, obviously no wave edge will exist. Weather looks to be hot and sunny every day with only moderate winds forecast. Sunday afternoon is currently predicted to have some higher winds and a possibility of thunderstorms. The veracity of such mid-term projections are rightly questionable at this stage, although it would make for an intriguing finish to the competition.
Typically, firm fairways leads to emphasis on driving distance. The theory shows that you are simply better to be further down the course if you are going to be in the rough either way.
However, I think this is worthy of further contemplation for your Tour Championship Picks. Given the danger posed off the tee from water and trees, I am uncertain that we will suddenly see players adopting a bomb and gouge approach. In many ways, it makes me firmer in finding those more consistently finding the middle of the fairway. Alongside approach over 200 yards, I also implemented an uptick in weighting for approach from rough of over 150 yards.
Course Comps for East Lake Golf Club
First, the unique zoysiagrass fairways see parallels to TPC Craig Ranch (AT&T Byron Nelson) and TPC Southwind (St Jude Championship). There is bermudagrass rough at both and Southwind has the added bonus of the same grass for the green complexes. With Craig Ranch a 7,414 yard par 71 and Southwind a 7,243 yard par 70, both share similar approach metrics. TPC Craig Ranch particularly has a large number of approach shots from 200+ yards.
Sedgefield is another Donald Ross design. The host of the Wyndham Championship features a heavy reliance on driving accuracy and a disproportionate number of approach shots over 200 yards. We also see a combo of bermudagrass greens and rough on both courses.
Finally, a word of caution on prior course form. Yes, course history has proven relatively sticky here previously. However, bear in mind the last four years that players have had the benefit of starting strokes to solidify their positions before a ball has even been struck. Using strokes gained over their final finishing positions is highly advisable.
Tour Championship Picks
Suggested Staking
Lowest 72 Hole Score.
All without starting strokes except the Si Woo Kim Top 10.
Collin Morikawa
2.5pt E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 4 places 1/4 odds)
Russell Henley
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 4 places 1/4 odds)
Tommy Fleetwood
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 4 places 1/4 odds)
Si Woo Kim
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 10 +320 (TAB)
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Golfer Profiles for our Tour Championship Picks
Collin Morikawa
Having won 5 tournaments in his first two years on tour, including the PGA Championship and The Open Championship, 2023 more than likely represents a second consecutive year without a victory. Fortunately, with the lowest 72 hole score markets we are simply relying on Morikawa’s credentials around a course that should suit.
Having performed admirably at Rocket Mortgage Classic, Morikawa lost in a playoff to Rickie Fowler recently at a Donald Ross design. He also finished 13th at TPC Southwind, where he also holds a 5th last year.
Morikawa ranks 2nd in the field for driving accuracy and 6th for approach over the last 3 months. That combination always has the potential to compile a low score. Combine that with the fact that this course receives a very low emphasis on putting, that allays some of the fears around Morikawa’s weakest club.
Russell Henley – Your Tour Championship Picks Favourite
I’ll admit, I may have developed a Russell Henley problem this year. A familiar name to these pages in 2023, it has simply been that he has had a rather excellent season without adding to the early November win at Mayakoba. He has played well enough to have earned a second.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Henley is a Georgia guy, having been born in the state and attending University of Georgia. It is not unsurprising that he has found success in this part of the United States. He holds a 12th and 3rd in his two appearances at East Lake, both before starting strokes were a thing.
He now arrives on a run of three Top 10s with 2-6-8 finishes. The 2nd was at the Wyndham Championship (with Sedgefield being a correlated course) and a 6th at the FedEx St Jude Championship (with TPC Southwind also correlated). It was a 4th consecutive Top 10 for him at Sedgefield and he also holds an additional 7th at TPC Southwind. The 8th last week at Olympia Fields really impressed, considering it is a course that on paper should not really suit him. This is much better.
Henley rates out 6th in this field for SG: T2G, resulting from being 4th for driving accuracy, 5th for SG: APP, and 5th SG: ATG in this field over the past 3 months. He sits middle of the pack for SG: PUTT, but he has gained putting on both appearances here including gaining 6.8 strokes putting when 3rd here.
A Top 5 finish in the leaderboard proper would not surprise. We mildly prefer him in the No Starting Strokes markets for our Tour Championship Picks.
Tommy Fleetwood – Your Tour Championship Picks Best Value
Another hitting a rich vein of form at the pointy end of the season is Tommy Fleetwood. Prior to last week’s BMW Championship, he had finished in the Top 10 in 5 out of 6 events. Two of those were in Majors at The Open Championship and US Open.
BMW Championship host Olympia Fields was not the best fit for his game, but he finds a much more suitable test here. Over the last 30 days, he ranks 2nd for driving accuracy and within the top 11 in every strokes gained metric. Much like Henley, Fleetwood probably deserves a win in 2023. He probably should’ve won the RBC Canadian Open, but fortunately we had Nick Taylor that week win for us at 66/1.
He also could chalk up the FedEx St Jude Championship as another miss. A pedestrian final round of -2 there saw him finish one shot outside the playoff. A correlated course to here, he also finished 4th at TPC Southwind on debut. Plus, he scored 11th on his first look East Lake before starting strokes were invented. Most promising is that Fleetwood won’t be beset by his usual Sunday reactions under pressure with this unique tournament format.
Si Woo Kim
Finally, I’ll end with a bit of a flyer on Si Woo Kim. The volatile golfer has been boom or bust, which is exactly what you want at this long price.
The South Korean ranks 1st for driving accuracy, 8th SG: T2G, and 14th SG: APP over the last three months. He has an impeccable Sedgefield record. Additionally, a 10th here in his only appearance and before starting strokes came into play and a 2nd on the zoysiagrass fairways and bermuda greens of TPC Craig Ranch.
Si Woo does his best approach work from over 200 yards. He ranks 6th in the world for approach from 200+ yards in 2023 for all golfers with over 100 shots recorded. In all 4 editions of this tournament featuring starting strokes, one of the five players starting at -2 have climbed inside the Top 5. He could well be the player that charges through the field if he finds any semblance of his putter.
The Lucas Glover Conundrum
Finally, I’ll finish with some musings on Lucas Glover. He has been the name I’ve really struggled with most this week. Mainly because the more I look the more the more I like. Then I remember it is Lucas Glover, who sits just behind the big four of Rahm, McIlroy, Hovland, and Scheffler on the leaderboard.
We’ve spoken extensively about the parallels here to Wyndham Championship host course Sedgefield. That is another Donald Ross design with emphasis on driving accuracy and approach over 200+ yards. Further, St Jude Championship at TPC Southwind shares these unique zoysia fairways, bermuda greens, bermudagrass 2.5” rough, and emphasizes driving accuracy.
Glover won both of those events this year. Additionally, he was 4th at Donald Ross at Detroit Golf Club. He had gained putting at East Lake in 3/4 appearances before he learned how to putt. He is also a South Carolina guy. Glover was born in the state, went to college there, and still lives there. Surely, another benefit to tick being from a neighbouring state to Georgia.
Olympia Fields was never the track for him. He was likely also running on fumes by that point after back-to-back grueling victories. This is much more his type of test, where his 3rd ranking for driving accuracy and 2nd for SG: APP can come to the fore. All whilst he has also putted very well here even before he switched to the broomstick putter.
How to approach Lucas Glover for our Tour Championship Picks
Given the quality of names ahead of him, it was hard to envision him lifting the FedEx Cup. Yet, I can’t shake the feeling he may yet somehow complete the fairytale and book himself a Ryder Cup spot at the same time.
Perhaps the best way to approach this is the generous odds on offer for a Top 5 or Top 10 finish, considering he starts in 5th at 5-under. I also likely him in matchup markets against Brian Harman, which you can find on Draftkings at +100.
Summary
Thank you reading our Tour Championship picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!
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