Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to Wacky Wednesday edition of The Sweet Spot here at WinDaily Sports. We had some good plays yesterday as we hit on top of the line pitchers with Justin Verlander and Graham Ashcraft. A Pirates and Braves stacks were recommended and ended up being popular plays for GPP and Cash game winners. In this article, we’re focused on the night slate starting at 7:05pm as we have an evenly split amount of day and night games.
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 6 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 6 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
KEVIN GAUSMAN ($10,600 DK)
Gausman had one of his worst outings in his last start when he allowed 7 runs to the Phillies. He admitted later that he had issues commanding his splitter and became very one dimensional. But here’s the good news, in at least 4 ER’s on four other occasions this year. And in the start following, he has a 0.72 ERA and owns a 3-0 record.
The Jays RHP also has 2 starts against the O’s this year and has a 3.65 ERA in those outings. While those starts have been productive but not stellar, there is potential here as Baltimore ranks 24th against the splitter and 27th against the fastball according to weighted runs above average against specific offerings. So I’ll take the data that shows Gausman rebounds well from bad starts and know that he has the arsenal to be effective and keep the Orioles off balance. Plus he has the best K potential, 31.7% K rate, of anyone pitching today.
CHARLIE MORTON ($9000 DK)
Morton has been solid in his last 2 starts allowing 0 ER’s over 11 innings of work. One of those starts was against his opponent tonight, the New York Mets, where he just three hits over five innings of work. His problem in that game was control as he walked a season-high seven batters. Tonight, will mark the 4th start for Morton against the Mets as he is 1-1 in the previous three outings.
The Mets are batting just 0.232 off Charlie Morton this season but have created issues by drawing 14 walks. While the New Yorkers will obviously come in with a gameplan to make Morton throw strikes, I have confidence that will work against them. Expected home plate umpire, Charlie Ramos, has a 8.2% walk rate which is in the lower 1/3rd of all umpires. He also has a 0.94x run boost, meaning his games are lower scoring, which is in the bottom 10% of all umps.
MACKENZIE GORE ($7400 DK)
The Yankees hit a new low last night as they fell to the Washington Nationals making it 9 consecutive losses. They also dropped to 5-games below 0.500 for the first time in decades. It’s hard to ignore their futility and easy to kick them while they’re down. And that’s what we’re targeting tonight with Mackenzie Gore on the mound.
First, Gore turned in a brilliant performance in his last start where he racked up 7 K’s and allowed just 1 hit and 0 ER’s against the Red Sox. He’s been on the roller coaster of late, exchanging good and bad starts. But his advanced metrics show he’s somewhat unlucky in his performances as his FIP is roughly the same as his ERA but his SIERRA is 0.5 runs lower. Gore also has good K potential, flashing a 27% K rate. Then there’s the Yankees who we’ve already gone over their woes above. And over the past 10 games they are batting an embarrassingly low 0.149 which is last in the majors. Boone better have his resume on Indeed because if they don’t turn it around soon he will be looking for work elsewhere.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JOSE URQUIDY ($6300 DK)
Urquidy is not a great pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. But looking at his advanced pitching metrics his 5.21 ERA is met with a 4.98 FIP and 4.75 SIERRA. So there is some signs of improvement if not a steadied forecast ahead. Tonight he faces the Red Sox who he lines up well against. Urquidy has the second highest fly ball percentage (42.3%) on the slate but the Red Sox are just 23rd in the league with a 36.8% FB rate. Plus, the Sox have struggled in their series with Houston so far scoring just 7 runs and batting a paltry 0.153.
BONUS PICKS
I also like REID DETMERS ($7600 DK) and BRETT KENNEDY ($6100 DK) tonight.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like in the MLB today are the DODGERS (vs. Cleveland), the BRAVES (vs. NYM), the NATIONALS (vs. NYY), the ASTROS (vs Boston), and the BLUE JAYS (vs. Baltimore).
CORE BATTERS
ALEX BREGMAN ($5300 DK)
In Chris Sale’s two starts since returning from the IL, he hasn’t made it out of the 5th inning. And in those starts he faced the Nats and Tigers who are not necessarily the hardest hitting teams (understand the Nats have definitely been better of late). However, he gets one of the top offenses tonight in the Astros. Bregman comes into tonight with a modest 4-game hitting streak. But he also has good success off Sale owning a career 0.313 batting average with 2 home runs.
For stacking, I like JOSE ALTUVE, CHAS MCCORMICK, YORDAN ALVAREZ, and JEREMY PENA.
VLADIMIR GUERRERO ($4400 DK)
The Jays slugging 1B hasn’t had a great year by his standards. But regardless of the season he’s had, he’ll be happy to see Dean Kremer on the opposing mound tonight. That’s because Vlad owns a 0.318 batting average and has 4 career home runs off the O’s SP.
NOTE: ESPN is showing Jack Flaherty as Baltimore’s SP tonight. If that is the case, I’ll likely consider switching course to a Nationals stack starting with CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
KEVIN KIERMAIER ($2800 DK)
Keirmaier is often in play as a slap hitter. But he also often comes through. Tonight, will be no different if Dean Kremer starts for the O’s. That’s because Keirmaier has a 0.375 average in 8 plate appearances against Kremer. We’ll keep him part of a Jays stack if Kremer pitches or a one-off play if Flaherty goes.
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