Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to Fastball Friday edition of The Sweet Spot here at WinDaily Sports. Last night turned into a good night here at WinDaily as we saw a big night from Merrill Kelly help many of our lineups turn from red to green. A full game stack of Oakland and Chicago also pushed people to the top as we saw 8 home runs in that game. So let’s keep this good mojo going into the weekend starting with tonight’s slate.
As a reminder, this article will focus on MLB Pitchers, from aces to value. We also look at Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 12 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 12 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
SPENCER STRIDER ($12,800 DK)
Strider gets a plus matchup tonight when he takes the mound in San Francisco tonight. The Giants have the 4th highest K rate in baseball at 24.9%. Plus they own the worst wRA against the slider which is Strider’s primary out pitch. Looking at recent play, the Giants have upped that stellar K rate to 26.7% over the past 10 days and their batting average is in the bottom half of the league at 0.247.
The other reason why I’m high on Strider is he just faced the Giants in his last start and put up 38 DK points. That was primarily due to his 10 K’s but also 7 innings of shutout ball. While I typically don’t like any pitchers above $12K, this is a favorable spot and one I can support. With 12 games, I’ll likely land on a more balanced pitching staff but may throw out a stars and scrub pitching line in a few lineups.
BRANDON WOODRUFF ($10,400 DK)
Over the past few seasons, I’ve only been interested in Woodruff when he toes the mound at home. We will throw out the shortened COVID season for this exercise since there were no fans in the seats. So let’s look at his splits since 2019:
- 2019: 3.06 ERA at Home / 4.41 ERA on the Road
- 2021: 2.31 ERA at Home / 2.79 ERA on the Road
- 2022: 2.06 ERA at Home / 4.10 ERA on the Road
- 2023: 1.74 ERA at Home / 3.57 ERA on the Road
Overall, that’s an average of 1.4 runs better at home. And that’s where he gets the ball tonight so he’s fully in play for me. He also gets the Padres tonight who are a team we can confidently attack. San Diego has fallen woefully behind in the Wild Card race and is 6 games out of a playoff spot. And over the past 10 days, they are batting just 0.207 which is good for 29th in baseball. That aligns well with their season long totals as they are 25th in the MLB in batting average. It’s been a problem all year and one that isn’t getting better as summer winds down.
KODAI SENGA ($9600 DK)
The hits just keep getting harder for the Angels as they saw their prominent free-agent to be, Shohei Ohtani, throw his last pitch for the team on Wednesday. And then their star OF, Mike Trout, came back off a long stint on the IL just to see him play one game and injure his wrist once again. A season with some promise has now turned into a nightmare for LA.
The Mets, on the other hand, are still baseball’s most disappointing team. But they’ve played some decent ball since throwing in the towel going 7-4 in their last 11 games. Kodai Senga has contributed to that small success as he has 3 straight quality starts going 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in that stretch. He’s been a solid strikeout pitcher all year posting a 28.1% K rate and 10.69 K/9 inning. Both those numbers are 3rd for pitchers on today’s slate, trailing just Woodruff and Strider. And then there’s the Angels who over the past 10 days have a 25% K rate and 0.230 batting average. We saw Graham Ashcraft set a career high with 11 K’s against LA on Tuesday. He owns a 5.8 K/9 innings rate. I think you know what that means so play Senga with confidence as he’s my favorite play of the top 3 tonight.
DYLAN CEASE ($8900 DK)
The A’s have shown some offensive spunk over the past week. Oakland has 13 home runs over a span of 7 games which is 3rd in baseball. But that’s where it ends as their batting average is just 0.213 (25th) and K rate is 29.4% (3rd highest) in that same stretch. What’s also important to note is they aren’t taking many pitches as they have a 4.7% walk rate in that stretch, good for 28th in the MLB.
While it has been a disappointing season for the White Sox ace, Dylan Cease does have much better success at home. His ERA is 1.5 runs lower when he pitches in front of his home crowd, and that’s where he gets the ball tonight. As is always the case with Cease, we try to look for teams with low walk rates as his 10.3% BB rate is 2nd highest on the slate tonight. And that’s exactly what we have with the A’s. With the way Oakland is swinging at offerings, this is a great spot for the Sox RHP to put together a solid outing and rack up the K’s.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
COLE IRVIN ($5500 DK)
Irvin has been thrust into the Orioles rotation of late as the team has opted to deploy a 6-man rotation to save pitches for October. And since then, he has tossed two solid games totaling 10 innings pitched with just 1 ER allowed. In Irvin’s last start, we saw his pitch count grow from 67 to 77 so there is potential he could go over 80 tonight against the Rockies. Which is one reason to like Irvin but the other is the high probability of an Orioles win (-210 is largest favorite on the board tonight). The other is the Rockies who have lost 4 straight and have the worst road record in the National League.
BONUS PICKS
I also like SONNY GRAY ($9000 DK) and DANE DUNNING ($7400 DK) tonight. The game total between Texas and Minnesota is just 8.5 making it one of the lower numbers on the board. Both pitchers have had recent success while both teams have had some struggles to score (Texas just 14 runs in past 5 games).
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like in the MLB today are the ORIOLES (vs. Colorado), the PHILLIES (vs. STL), the DODGERS (vs. Boston), the METS (vs LAA), and the WHITE SOX (vs. Oakland).
CORE BATTERS
GUNNAR HENDERSON ($5200 DK)
Baltimore is batting 0.313 as a team over the past week. They are 4th in the MLB in OBP and ISO in that same stretch. Adley Rutschman has been at the top of that attack with a 0.440 batting average in the past 7 days. But Gunnar Henderson has done more of the damage as he has 2 home runs, 8 RBI’s and a 0.393 batting average. I look for the O’s to rock Freeland tonight and will circle my stacks around Henderson.
For stacking, I like ADLEY RUTSCHMAN, RYAN MOUNTCASTLE, ANTHONY SANTANDER, and RYAN OHEARN.
BRYCE HARPER ($4400 DK)
The Phillies lead the MLB in home runs in August as they have finally turned on their power switch. Over the past 6 games, they have 16 home runs alone. While Schwarber leads the way with 4 dingers, Bryce Harper is where we turn our attention. He is batting 0.409 with 3 home runs in the past week and looks to have finally found his swing again. Tonight, the Phillies face Miles Mikolas who has a 6.17 ERA over the past month. We could see the bell ringing quite frequently in South Philly tonight.
For stacking, I like KYLE SCHWARBER, TREA TURNER, NICK CASTELLANOS, BRYSON STOTT and BRANDON MARSH.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
DJ STEWART ($2700 DK)
Since the Mets called up Stewart in early August, he’s hit 6 home runs with a 0.912 OPS. He’s coming off a series versus Atlanta where he went 5 for 11 with one home run. The Mets are showing some life so I’ll play some one off’s with their lineup against LAA tonight.
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