Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to a Taco Tuesday edition of the Sweet Spot here at WinDaily Sports. We saw some epic performances last night. Starting at pitching, both Johan Oviedo (36.85 DK points) and Kyle Harrison (37.25 DK points) both went for over 5x value. At the plate, we saw Ronald Acuna drop 51 DK points and Jose Altuve hit for the cycle and rack up 42 DK points. It just goes to show that scoring comes from all different places and we have to be able to deploy different lineup variations each night (5/4, 4/4/1, 4/3/2, etc).
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 12 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 12 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
GEORGE KIRBY ($9700 DK)
Kirby will likely be the top target of today’s arms because of his opponent, the Oakland A’s, and Seattle’s current torrid streak, winners of four straight and nine of ten games. Some other things to factor are that Kirby pitches better at home, ERA is almost one full run lower and K rate is 8% higher. He’s also 2-0 against Oakland in five career starts.
Then there’s the A’s who are batting 0.198 over the past week with a 27.3% K rate. They had a small flash of offensive prowess over the weekend in Chicago but have come crashing down since scoring just 3 runs over the past 3 games.
MERRILL KELLY ($9100 DK)
It’s always a daring proposition to use a pitcher against the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the season they rank in the top three in the MLB in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The Dodgers have stayed hot this month as they are 5th in runs scored and 3rd in batting average.
But we have a few things going for us with Merrill Kelly. First off, since returning from a one month stint on the IL with a sore calf, he has a 2.39 ERA and 4 quality starts. But more importantly, he has faced the Dodgers on three occasions this season and he has a stellar 1.17 ERA. The walks have been his biggest issue against LA, offering ten in 15.1 innings of work. But he didn’t walk a batter in his last outing leading towards some hope for regression in that area.
CHARLIE MORTON ($8500 DK)
Charlie Morton had his best outing of the season in his last start versus NYM. In that game, he went seven shutout innings and struck out eleven. It was so good that DraftKings decided to make him $500 cheaper tonight! Most of that is likely based on him pitching in Colorado but there is still optimism he can continue his recent success despite the bandbox that is Coors Field.
That’s because Morton is 3-0 in his last three outings and has a scoreless streak of eighteen innings. Another factor is because the Rockies have a 29% K rate over the past seven games which aligns very well with Morton’s recent success as he’s struck out 25 batters during his scoreless streak.
SETH LUGO ($7900 DK)
The Cardinals season is now in full tailspin mode as they’ve dropped to 20 games below 0.500 and are riding a four game losing streak. During those four games, they have scored just four total runs and are batting 0.115 with a 34.3% K rate.
Lugo is also coming into tonight’s contest with a modest scoreless streak. Going back three starts, he hasn’t allowed a run in his last 12.2 innings pitched. That includes two starts with zero earned runs combined against Arizona and Miami. I’ve seen the Cardinals futility of late in person and feel confident in using Lugo against a team already looking at 2024.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
ALEX COBB ($6800 DK)
There is no real good landing spot in the value range tonight. But if I were to pick one, I feel best using Cobb against the flailing Reds. In the past week, the Reds have the 5th highest K rate at 28.8%. And that was on full display last night as they struck out 14 times versus Giants pitching. Cobb has been roughed up in August as he’s been a victim of the long ball, allowing eight home runs in his past five starts. But he’s much better at home where he has a 2.25 ERA vice a 4.98 ERA on the road. And he’s only allowed five dingers at AT&T Park against eleven away from home.
BONUS PICKS
I also like JUSTIN STEELE ($9500 DK) and DEAN KREMER ($7700 DK) today.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the MARINERS (vs. Oakland), the ORIOLES (vs CHW), the BRAVES (vs. Colorado), the BLUE JAYS (vs. Washington), and the RED SOX (vs. Astros).
CORE BATTERS
JULIO RODRIGUEZ ($6200 DK)
The Mariners recent onslaught is impressive. They’ve jumped into 1st place in the AL West after being as low as fourth place in the division back in July. The leader of that offensive output is Julio Rodriguez who is batting 0.429 in the month of August trailing only Mookie Betts. Included with the sparkling average is seven home runs and thirty RBI’s. JRod gets another cupcake tonight in Ken Waldichuk of the Oakland A’s. That makes me fully vested in a Mariners stack once again primarily one with Julio in it.
For stacking, I like JP CRAWFORD, CAL RALEIGH, TY FRANCE, and EUGENIO SUAREZ.
GUNNAR HENDERSON ($5400 DK)
Baltimore lit up the scoreboard last night and have another favorable matchup today. The White Sox are starting Jesse Scholtens who is 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. More importantly he’s allowed 5 ER’s in each of his last two starts. I’ll go with the hottest O’s hitter, Gunnar Henderson, to circle my stacks around. The O’s SS has a hit in twelve of his last thirteen games and is batting 0.382 in that stretch.
For stacking, I like ANTHONY SANTANDER, RYAN OHEARN, ADLEY RUTSCHMAN, AUTIN HAYS and CEDRIC MULLINS.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
TBD ($2400 DK)
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