Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to another Sunday Funday edition of The Sweet Spot. With the British Open on in the background as I write this, here’s hoping the weather across America is better than what those golfers are dealing with. And based on a quick look, there shouldn’t be any weather issues in the early slate so we can pick away with confidence that Mother Nature won’t affect our games.
Looking at the slate today, we have potential bullpen games with Colorado, Arizona, and San Francisco. This always gets tricky with offenses as we saw a team in Pittsburgh throw a shutout with a bullpen game against a hot Angels lineup last night. On the other hand, we saw 7 teams score over 8 runs in a game yesterday. But we also saw 7 other teams score 2 runs or less. So it’s been an all-or-nothing approach at the plate for teams lately.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 10 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 10 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
AARON NOLA ($11,000 DK)
Aaron Nola was sent out as the 5th starter after the All Star break to give his arm as much rest as possible. And that was for good reason as he’s logged the most innings in the MLB since 2017. The immediate result of his extra rest was good as he went 7.1 innings allowing just 2 ER’s against Milwaukee last Tuesday.
His opponent today is the Cleveland Guardians who are 5th in batting average since the break. But the matchup looks good for Nola today as his issue has been the home run ball. He’s allowed 21 HR’s which is the 8th most in the Majors this season. However, Cleveland is last in the league in ISO and last in HR’s with just 71. Additionally, the Guardians are 27th against the fastball and 19th against the curveball this season. Aaron Nola throws a combination of those two pitches at an 80% clip. The salary is high but the potential for a big game is there based on strengths versus weaknesses in this matchup.
JESUS LUZARDO ($10,800 DK)
The Miami Marlins have lost the first two games in their series with Colorado putting them with an overall losing streak of 8 games coming into today. As one of the feel-good stories of the first half, the Marlins have lost every game after the break. They look to snap that today with their ace on the mound in Jesus Luzardo. The lefty is 8-5 with a 3.35 ERA and has registered a 2.6 WAR on FanGraphs which is the best of all SP’s today.
But the main reason I like Luzardo is that his opponent, the Colorado Rockies, is fizzling at the plate despite winning the first two games in this series. Since the break, the Rockies are batting 0.195 and have a 31.5% K rate. And for the entire season, they are 24th in batting average against LHP’s and have the 3rd highest K rate against southpaws. Add to that Luzardo’s ERA in South Florida is 2 full runs lower than on the road (2.43 vs 4.63) and we have solid data supporting his cause today. I expect a big outing from the Marlins SP and have him as my top SP of the day.
MACKENZIE GORE ($8300 DK)
The Nationals have taken it to the Giants in the first two games of their series outscoring them 15-4. Today they look for the sweep and send their young LHP Mackenzie Gore to the mound. Gore has found a rough patch of late with a 6.21 ERA since June 1st. But he has the 2nd highest K/9 on the slate today at 10.69 and he’s facing a struggling Giants team.
The one team with a worse batting average than the Rockies since the break is the San Francisco Giants. They are last in the MLB with a 0.193 batting average and are 29th in both wOBA and wRC+. Additionally, they are 20th on the season in batting average versus LHP’s and have the 8th highest K rate at 24.3%. Despite Gore’s recent struggles, there is a high ceiling in this game as witnessed by Josiah Gray’s performance yesterday (Gray’s 3rd highest fantasy output of the season).
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JORDAN LYLES ($5600 DK)
Close your eyes as the value range is a dumpster fire today. And while I’d love to give you a “nobody” answer, I can’t simply because everyone loves value. It’s where a lot of these contests are won as the ownership rate is often very low in this range.
So today, I land on Jordan Lyles who owns a 1-11 record and a 6.05 ERA. But hear me out real quick as I also try and convince myself on this one. Lyles has pitched well of late going 11 innings with only 1 ER allowed in his last 2 starts. His advanced metrics are all lower than his actual ERA including a SIERA that is 5.16. And then there’s the Yankees who are averaging 3.5 runs in their past 5 games. Since the All Star break the New Yorkers are batting just 0.212 and are 24th in wOBA.
Look, I had to pick someone below $7K and while I am not in love with any, there is potential for Lyles to return the best value in this bunch. Remember, I had Luis Medina in my last article and all he did was shut out the hottest hitting team in the league in Boston. So it can happen!
BONUS PICKS
I do like JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($8700 DK) and TAJ BRADLEY ($7600 DK) today. Montgomery has a 1.48 ERA since June 1st and has not allowed more than 3 ER’s in 9 straight starts. Taj Bradley has the highest K rate on the slate today and Baltimore has a 23.1% K rate since the break (T-12).
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the CARDINALS (vs. Tailion), the BRAVES (vs. Teheran), the MARLINS (vs. Rockies BP), the TWINS (vs. Giolito) and the DODGERS (vs. Perez).
CORE BATTERS
LUIS ARRAEZ ($4800 DK)
The Marlins losing streak is well documented but it hasn’t been because of their second baseman. Since the break, Arraez. He’s had 3 multi-hit games and has averaged 7.5 DK points per game. He’s coming off a 2-hit game on Saturday and I look for him to break out today against a Colorado bullpen that has the 6th highest ERA in the MLB at 4.62 and has the 3rd highest slugging percentage allowed. The Marlins stack is fully in play versus this set of relievers.
For stacking, look at JORGE SOLER, BRYAN DE LA CRUZ, JESUS SANCHEZ, GARRETT COOPER, and JON BERTI.
MARCELL OZUNA ($4000 DK)
Brewers SP Julio Teheran has allowed 17 runs in his last 3 games. And recall, Teheran entered the league as an Atlanta Brave. So there’s some history here and based on his recent form, the Braves are the worst team for him to see on the schedule today.
I’ll start my stack with Ozuna who is 17 for 49 (0.347) with 3 home runs off Teheran in his career. Anyone is in play in this lineup but if I spend up on pitching, I’ll likely take the back half of the Braves lineup.
For stacking, I also like RONALD ACUNA JR, AUSTIN RILEY, MATT OLSON, ORLANDO ARCIA and MICHAEL HARRIS.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
ALEX KIRILOFF ($2700 DK)
The Twins OF has hit four home runs since the All Star Break which is good for 3rd in baseball. He is batting 0.313 with 13 RBI’s in that stretch as well. And today he faces Lucas Giolito who has allowed 20 HR’s on the season. This is a good matchup for a hot hitting Twins lineup.
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