MLBMA Daily Notes 5.10.19 CIN at SF

OFFENSE

CIN, (Last 7 Days)

• 290 PA
• .228/.324/.472 Triple Slash
• .797 OPS
• .244 ISO
• .339 wOBA
• 109 wRC+

SF, Home (Last 30 Days)

• 411 PA
• .206/.261/.318 Triple Slash
• .579 OPS
• .112 ISO
• .250 wOBA
• 58 wRC+

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

CINCINNATI

The Reds are rising up the offensive ranks lately and technically speaking, I like what I’m seeing here. The Reds have followed each bottom with runs up to their highs. After a bullish piercing of their MA from below, I’m expecting a strong follow-up performance tonight.

SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco sent all their rolling averages into a tizzy, as is often the case when taking a trip to Colorado. The Giants clearly aren’t the 10-run team we saw in the Mile High City. If you notice the large sample used above for SF, this offense plays well below average when at home. You can see (outside of @COL) the Giants have not been able to build on any of their strong performances. In the trading sphere, we would say it’s time to short this rip. I think in the coming days and weeks, everyone will be reminded of the true talent in the SF offense.

STARTING PITCHING

Luis Castillo, 2019 (8 Games Started)

• 50.1 IP
• 59 K
• 30.3% K Rate
• 1.97 ERA / 2.87 FIP / 3.17 xFIP
• 0.97 WHIP
• .176/.271/.241 Triple Slash Allowed
• .238 wOBAA
• 30.7% Hard Hit Rate
• Xstats leader (below)

Dereck Rodriguez, 2019 (7 Games Started)

• 38 IP
• 26 K : 13 BB
• 5.75 ERA / 6.10 FIP / 4.82 xFIP
• 1.42 WHIP
• .270/.335/.511 Triple Slash Allowed
• .846 OPSA
• .358 wOBAA
• 45.7% Hard Hit Allowed
• Poor Xstats (below)

BULLPENS LAST 7 GAMES

Neither of these bullpens have been good lately, posting very similar surface statistics between a 4.45-4.50 ERA & 1.27-1.35 WHIP. The edge does lie with CIN when we zoom in on the peripherals. Where the SF FIP & xFIP are in line with ERA, the Reds have a 3.00 xFIP & 2.76 SIERA, so the forecast in CIN is for brighter days ahead.

THE PLAY: CIN F5 ML

With the bullpen edge, I did debate playing for the full nine, which I generally do prefer. I will present to you exactly what tipped the scales for me here; It came down to the SP performance at different times through the order.

DERECK RODRIGUEZ, 2019

• 1st Through Order as SP 5.02 ERA
• 2nd Through Order as SP 5.87 ERA
• 3rd Through Order as SP 7.11 ERA

LUIS CASTILLO, 2019

• 1st Through Order as SP 1.45 ERA
• 2nd Through Order as SP 0.45 ERA
• 3rd Through Order as SP 5.40 ERA

So, although we did have a slight perceived edge in the bullpen, I think that ERA spike for Castillo the third time around in combination with an evenly matched set of bullpens puts the highest probability for success on the first five innings.

Let’s get it.