Pick Management 
Jacob’s Above Average Plays is coming off a stellar night winning both of his plays. He started football off right this week with a win on this years Bahamas Bowl and grabbed a nice plus-money return on the ice. He’s bringing you two more above average plays that’ll keep this train rolling.
Take New England Patriots -6.5 vs Buffalo Bills (4:30pm EST, Saturday 21 December 2019)
Well it’s almost over. The year, the holidays, and sadly, the NFL. Today, Buffalo heads into New England to face the living legends, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. So far this year, Tom Brady and the Patriots haven’t played to the above average standard we are used to. When you start to dig in, it is easy to see that this is still a way above average team. This year, the Patriots have covered the spread in nine of fourteen games played. Despite people critical about the Pats offense, they covered because they are scoring an average of 26.6 points per game. I understand the Brady isn’t having an above average year and has some pretty pedestrian stats, however that does not change the fact that he is one of the greats. His ability to pick up on the little things in a game is what keeps New England rolling. Brady is averaging just 218 yards passing per game, and only 1.3 touch downs. At home though, he has played above average this year. Brady has had nine touchdowns and two interceptions, passing for 1,599 yards, and his quarterback rating ranges from 82.9 on the road to a way above average 91.6. It has been the defense that has been the spectacular part of Patriots team this year. They are holding teams to an average of 12.9 points per game, under 100 yards rushing (98yds), and under 175 yards passing (170) per game. They also have an above average point differential of +191. The Bills have too been playing above average from what we are used to seeing. They have been having a great season – covering nine games, including covering all six of their road games. Their offense only scores an average of 20.8 points per game, though the team does not seem to be worried about that. It is their defense that has been winning them games. They have the AFC’s second ranked defense (Patriots are first), and are holding teams to 15.9 points per game. In the first meeting between these two earlier this year – the Bills defense played tough, but QB Josh Allen got knocked out of the game. They lost by six.
I believe we are actually getting some value on the Patriots here. Bills backers believe that they have a chance because they lost the first game without their starting quarterback, but I don’t buy it. The Patriots are scoring more and allowing less points per game than the Bills, plus New England needs to keep winning to secure first place. I don’t see any real offensive threat to the Pats defense from the Bills, and Tom Brady is better at home this year. Watch for this line to drop to -6 as money continues to pour in on Buffalo.
Take Boston Bruins -167 vs Nashville Predators (7:00pm EST, Saturday 21 December 2019)
The Bruins have been one of the league’s above average teams all year. They have the number one ranked goal differential of +32 goals, having scored 120 total goals this year – which ranks them second in their conference. They have one of the league’s best goalies in Tuukka Rask, who is ranked above average in almost every goalie stat there is. He is ranked the 4th best goalie in their conference, and he is the NHL’s number 8 ranked – allowing just 2.29 goals per game. Honestly though, the Bruins have not been playing well as of late and that will help us in this game. They have won just one game in their last eight, and only one of their last five home games. The two most recent losses at home were to the above average Islanders, and the God awful LA Kings. I see them coming into this game fired up. While the Predators are an above average scoring team, they are still very middle of the pack. On the road this year, they have won seven out of fifteen games, and sixteen of thirty four overall. On the road this year, they are scoring an above average 3.67 goals per game, which ranks them second in the NHL. Nashville’s goalie, Pekka Rinne, has played well this year. He has won eleven of his eighteen starts, and has been allowing just under an average of three goals per game (2.99). Recently, they have played awful verse the Bruins at home. In the last nine matchups between these two that took place in Boston, the Predators have won just one.
I really think this is a bad matchup for the Predators. The Bruins losing the last two games at home are going to have them fired up for this game, especially against a team that they have beat up on at home in the past. I believe this will be a high scoring game, but I see the Bruins winning with ease. Take the Bruins.
