Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Week 5 edition of The First Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Wide Receiver Targets
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
If we dig in to the chart above, we can see that the top 10 Wide Receiver all had more targets than they’ve been accustomed to. One off the biggest beneficiaries of opportunity was Kadarius Toney of the New York Giants as Slay And Shepard were both out. Coming into the game he had averaged just over 4 targets per game through the first 4 weeks of the year. While he didn’t find the endzone he was able to snag 10 of his 13 targets for 189 yards. If he hadn’t been ejected for throwing a punch, he may have eclipsed the 200 yard mark.
If you rostered Mike Williams yesterday you had to be happy. He finished the game with 8 catches on a slate leading 16 targets for 165 yards and 2 TD’s. It was by far his best game of the year and he now has 3 games of at least 10 targets this season. His 16 targets was nearly twice his average through the first 4 weeks of the year.
Another guy that had a standout performance this weekend was Robert Woods. For the first time all year he had double digit targets with 14. He turned those 14 targets into 12 receptions for 150 yards. No TD’s this week for him but you have to be encouraged with his target share this week and have to think that continues against the Giants this coming weekend.
Running Back Targets
Rushing against the Buccaneers will be a hard no this year. But receiving, that’s the way to go and Gaskin did just that catching all 10 of his targets this week for 74 yards and 2 TD’s. Before this weekend he hadn’t had more than 6 targets in a game so it was nice to see him with such production catching passes. Up next week is a poor defense in the Jaguars so this will be an encouraging story for Gaskin season long owners.
After getting 0 targets last weekend Alvin Kamar had his highest number of targets this season with 8. He was able to catch 5 of them for 51 yards and 1 TD. If you had Kamara yesterday you had to be happy and he was productive both through the air and on the ground. He now gets a week off before heading to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in Week 7.
With CMC ruled out this week Hubbard became the main guy for Carolina. Darnold targeted him 6 times and he was able to convert them into 5 receptions for 33 yards. With CMC expected back next week this production will be short lived. That said, if CMC is ruled out again it will be Hubbard time again!
Tight End Targets
Kyle Pitts finally had his break out game. We all knew it was only a matter of time before it happened. Well all we needed was a Calvin Ridley-less game. For the first time this year Pitts had double digit targets. After averaging only a little more than 6 targets per game through week 4 Pitts had 10 targets this week and was able to catch 9 of them for 119 yards and one TD. Hopefully Arthur Smith took notice and unleashes Pitts more often.
We have a good-bad-good situation here. The good first. Ricky Seals-Jones had 8 targets this week. The bad next. He only had 41 yards receiving off of those targets. The good again. Logan Thomas will be out against next week so we get another look at Seals-Jones in a great match up vs. a Chiefs team that is giving up a ton of points to Tight Ends. He’s going to be worth a look next week.
Another guy I want to focus on here is David Njoku. He broke out this week with 7 targets. Njoku was able to catch all 7 targets and finish the game with 149 yards and 1 TD. This was by far his best game of the year. While the Browns have a deep core of Tight Ends hopefully we can finally start to see what Njoku can do when given the volume. Up next week is a tough match up vs. the Arizona Cardinals.
Quarterback Target Share
Without Calvin Ridley this weekend and a match up vs. a bad team in the Jets Matt Ryan utilized his Backs and Tight End heavily. Nearly half of his passes were split between Kyle Pitts and Lee Smith. Add in Hayden Hurst and he threw nearly 30 passes to his tight ends. Only 18 of his 45 passes went to Wide Receivers.
Another QB that had an interesting target make up was Jacoby Brissett. He threw the ball 39 times this weekend with 25 of the attempts going to his Running Backs and Tight Ends. With Parker and Fuller both sidelined this weekend Brissett had a clear game plan and that was to use his Backs and Tight Ends heavily.
Matt Stafford had himself a monster game this week. He threw for over 360 yards on 35 passes. Of those 35 passes way more than half of them went to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. When it comes to the passing game Stafford has very clear favorites and it’s going to be fun to see what they do next weekend against the New York Giants.
Running Back Touches
Derek Henry had another heavy workload. In what has become the norm Henry led all running backs with 29 carries and 130 yards rushing. He also found the end zone and just continues to the leader among backs this year.
One guy that really took full advantage of the opportunity this weekend was Alexander Mattison. Coming into the week he had averaged just 10 carries per game. With Cook ruled out this week Mattison became “the guy” and boy did he produce. He racked up 113 yards rushing on 25 carries and also caught 7 passes for 40 yards and 1 TD. The Vikings didn’t miss a beat and if Cook misses anymore time he’ll be more than just a serviceable back.
Another back that I wanted to point out was James Robinson. After failing to reach 90 rushing yards this season, Robinson had a break out game with 149 yards rushing and 1 TD. He is now up to 4 rushing TD’s on the year and gets an absolute dream match up vs. a Dolphins team that is giving up a ton of points to Running Backs this year.
Defense vs. Position
Something I like to look at each week is where teams are giving up the most points. The charts above are based off of Draftkings scoring.
Going into next week we’ll probably want to take a look at a guy like James Robinson as he’s getting a match up vs. a Dolphins team that is giving up 34 points per game to running backs. Or do we look to a guy like Harris with a match up vs. the Seahawks?
Switching gears to Receivers, no team has given up more fantasy points to them than the Tennessee Titans. Josh Allen and his core of Diggs, Sanders, and Beasley have to be licking their chops at that match up. When I look to set my lineups in Week 6 one of those 3 will be absolutely be in my lineups.
First Look Wrap Up
This was a fun week. If you played DFS you saw some insanely high scores as one of the chalk games, the Charges vs. Browns, really lived up the hype with 89 points scored between the two teams in a close match up.
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