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The PGA Tour travels to Japan this week for the Zozo Championship which takes place at the Narashino Country Club. The course is a Par 70 and approximately 7100 yards and for back to back weeks there will be no cut. There isn’t a ton of course history to dig through as this venue is only being utilized for the second time on the PGA Tour. This week I’m looking for accuracy off the tee, APP and ARG. I’ve essentially reduced this to a ball strikers haven with no distinct advantage for long versus short hitters. Much more on course dynamics on tonight’s PGA Livestream with the PGA Team. Also, please note that this tournament begins Wednesday night! Now, let’s get to the Zozo initial picks.
Collin Morikawa (11200) – The best golfer in the field will be popular, but he has the most win equity and I like how he looked at the CJ Cup as it looks like his minor injury is a thing of the past. Xander is my second favorite in this range. I’ll note that Spencer has Fleetwood as a strong contrarian play.
Keegan Bradley (9400) – I’m looking for ball strikers and a good all-around game and Keegan checks all the boxes. I will note that Joaquin Niemann is 3rd in Spencer’s model so I will likely be fitting him into some lineups as well.
Emiliano Grillo (9100) – Another great ball striker who appears to be in form. His PUTT is usually a problem, but I’m hoping the perfectly manicured greens at the Zozo helps some of the poor putters this week.
Jhonnatan Vegas (8900) – He’s been in great form and is downright elite in this field OTT, APP and BOB Gained. No reason to shy away from him in cash games, but beware of high ownership in GPPs. Make sure to catch our show for more on ownership, and of course, Steven’s ownership article.
K.H. Lee (8700) – He’s having a very good year and is a great course fit with a short course and Bentgrass greens. Add to that he has extensive experience on Japanese courses and he’s a solid value. Another guy that may be better for cash due to the potential for high ownership.
Chris Kirk (8100) – A pretty great course fit who is inside the Top 15 in my model. His lack of distance shouldn’t hurt him and he’s inside the Top 25 in almost every model metric I’ve used this week. Even better he’s one of Spencer’s favorite values on the board. Should be relatively low owned.
Luke List (7900) – ownership may be low coming off an MC at the Shriners and his game is certainly volatile, but he tends to do well on these shorter tracks and over the last 50 rounds he’s inside the Top 25 in this field OTT, APP, ARG, BOB Gained, Good Drives and SG Par 3 (some of the metrics I’m focused on this week).
Henrik Norlander (7400) – Rates out well in almost all metrics in my model and can get red-hot on APP. He’s got one MC since Palmetto and two Top 5s within that timeframe. Likely to be popular and may be better for cash. I also like Higgs and Hoge in this range, among others (check out our show tonight!).
Kyle Stanley (6200) – If you’re looking to take a flyer on someone, you can try one of the best ball strikers in this field. The problem is his short game is really bad. The hope here is that in this no-cut event he can be a zero putter for a couple days.
Shaun Norris (6000) – A late add to the field and a likely misprice. Norris is coming off a decisive win last week at the Japan Open. Another golfer with extensive experience in Japan, and by the way, he’s ranked 86th in the world. Just to give you some perspective, that’s two spots behind Keegan Bradley and five spots above fellow countryman Charl Schwartzel.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 44-13.
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