DFSGhost 
In today’s NBA action, a few teams are on the second half of a back-to-back, while others are dealing with short rotations in the last stretch of the season. Every game counts with playoff seeding and positions on the line, and tonight’s games are loaded with some of the best stars in the league. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)
Don’t let Toronto’s last two games distract you from the fact that they are in one of the best game environments on this NBA slate. The trio of VanVleet, Siakam, and Barnes are all wildly underpriced tonight, whereby Gary Trent Jr. becomes an elite target should VanVleet sit this one out with knee soreness. With Brooklyn sitting 11th in pace and 21st in defensive rating, the absence of Kyrie Irving at home will put this offense in a vulnerable position against Toronto’s zone defense, where the Raptors will thrive in transition.
On the Nets side of the ball, Seth Curry will take the reigns as the primary ball handler tonight, where he has sported a 24.2% usage rate and has a 1.03 FPPM in a 100+ minute sample size thus far. The Nets will be limited with offensive options in the absence of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, and while both Bruce Brown and Cam Thomas make for intriguing targets, I’m not forcing a back and forth in this game, rather, I’m prioritizing underpriced Raptors.
Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat (-4.5)
Despite having a lofty 225.5 total, this game has the third lowest total on the board, but it should not be flying under the radar as it is right now. While it’d be easy for me to explain how much exposure we need to the track meet that is Charlotte @ Milwaukee, truthfully, there will be so many players rostered in that game that this Chicago/Miami game takes precedence for me. The key? Key usage amongst the star players in it – one of the most importance factors in NBA DFS.
What’s to say about DeMar DeRozan with a fourth of the NBA season left to go? The Bulls’ MVP now has 30+ points in ten straight games, where he’s sported a 36.4% usage rate and has posted a ridiculous 36.9/5.8/5.2 scoring line on 56.6% shooting. While most will flock to Giannis Antetokounmpo in the best game environment on the slate, there is a discussion to be had here since you can grab value pieces in that one, while you cannot do the opposite for this game.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have a ton to offer tonight as well and you know exactly where the production is coming from; not only from the Heat, but from this game entirely. With Kyle Lowry (personal) out tonight, Jimmy Butler will be a prime target at a coveted position in NBA DFS, while Tyler Herro, who leads the Heat in usage rate this season despite coming off the bench, will be crucial as a primary ball handler against a Bulls perimeter defense that is still missing Lonzo Ball. If you need value, look for a combination of Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin (achilles) to earn extra playing time.
Honorable Mentions:
- Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-10)
- San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)
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