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DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – I know nearly 20 percent of users are projected to select Rory McIlroy this weekend at the API, but I am marginally surprised it is not higher when we look at his course history of five straight top-10 results since 2017. McIlroy is one of only four players (the other three being Hovland, Rahm and Hideki) that rank inside the top-20 of every statistical metric I attached a weight, and while I get the recent approach form might provide some concerns, the 66% of second shots that take place beyond 150 yards at the track help place him sixth in my model.
Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – I assume everyone has caught up and watched the ‘PGA Draftcast’ this week, but I can’t tell you how badly I wanted to start my build with Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. I have some trepidation with my last selection of Thomas Pieters, but in a different world, I do think moving Sungjae Im to Hovland and Pieters down to Trey Mullinax is certainly a viable strategy. Hovland has struggled (by his standards) at this track over his three attempts, failing to post a top-40 result, but the finishes are not quite as shaky when you dive a little deeper into the numbers. The Norweigan entered Saturday inside the top-five last year before blowing up, and a similar sentiment can be said for him in 2020 – an event that saw him fall out of the top-15 on Sunday.
Other Consideration – All five golfers rank inside the top-six of my model. It is hard to find many faults with the group.
$9,000 Range
Sungjae Im ($9,900) – Pricing is excellent across the board this week. I hate that it is the case because it makes the DFS slate much more challenging to get an edge, but we don’t have to look any further than 19 of the top-20 golfers on the odds board managing to grade inside the top-23 names on my model. I always note this factor, but I don’t run my numbers to look at pricing for the week, so it means something when I am in such alignment with all other markets. With all that being said, the one name that I will find myself higher on than most users will be Sungjae Im, who has an ideal bounce-back spot in front of him at the API. Sungjae ranks next to Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland as the only players in this field inside the top-10 of my model in both weighted tee-to-green and total driving, and he also grades a stout 10th in weighted par-five scoring. McIlroy and Hovland will be my preferred choices up top, but it will be Im that carries my primary exposure in the $9,000 range.
Other Targets: I’d monitor ownership, but there is a ton of popularity in this range.
$8,000 Range
Sergio Garcia ($8,100) – As you can tell, I am condensing most of these ranges to feature my favorite few targets of the group for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I don’t think it is that helpful to list a ton of names when most of the popular picks for the event are likely solid plays. You will not hear me pleading my case as often this week that the chalk needs to be faded, but I do like a potential contrarian pivot in the $8,000 zone to Sergio Garcia – a golfer that hasn’t played this tournament in nearly 10 years but has the exact statistical makeup that you would hope to find for a potential winner. Garcia ranks inside the top-seven in this field for weighted par-five scoring and total driving, and I anticipate that we see him at sub-six percent when all is said and done.
Other Thoughts: Sam Burns ($8,800) – GPP Only. Max Homa ($8,700), Jason Kokrak ($8,400), Paul Casey ($8,300) and Keith Mitchell ($8,100) will all be in my pool.
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Jason Day ($7,900) – We are back at the site of DAYYYYYY’s infamous Disney World trip in 2019. The Australian is providing solid contrarian numbers for those in GPP contests, and the course history has been great when he hasn’t decided to set records on the ‘Space Ranger’ ride.
Justin Rose ($7,700) – Rose is one of the better difficult course players in the world, and it shouldn’t hurt matters that he ranks inside the top-10 in weighted proximity over 150 yards.
Corey Conners ($7,600) – Ignore the recent results for Corey Conners! I was recommending him as a fade during those contests because of the awkward fit for his game, and we now get a venue that accentuates his total driving.
Seamus Power ($7,600) – My thought process behind Corey Conners is similar to Seamus Power. Consider this an appealing spot to get unique, although I will mention that I thought he would find better success than he did at the Genesis Invitational and Waste Management.
Keegan Bradley ($7,300) – Bradley is fifth in my model when it comes to weighted tee-to-green, and we have seen him find success at tests like this in the past where you don’t need to make as many putts. The American hasn’t missed a cut at the venue in his last nine trips, producing three top-10s.
Additional Thoughts: Luke List ($7,500), Cameron Young ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,400), Kevin Na ($7,400), Si Woo Kim ($7,300), Lanto Griffin ($7,100), Sahith Theegala $7,000, Thomas Pieters ($7,000) – GPP only. Tons of risk and upside.
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Carlos Ortiz ($6,900), Adam Svensson ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,600), Alex Smalley ($6,400), Charles Howell III ($6,400), Doug Ghim ($6,300), Trey Mullinax ($6,200).
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