This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week One 12-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.
High Tier
NFL DFS WR: Mike Evans (TBB) ($7900 FD|$7900 DK)
61% Reception rate. 139 Targets, 86 Receptions, 11 yards per target (2018).
Both Evans and Chris Godwin have matchups made in heaven in week one against the 49er’s. It is very clear that San Francisco’s weakness lies in their secondary and Tampa Bay is a pass heavy team to begin with. Will have to monitor the Q tag due to illness but I’m pretty certain he will play.
NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($7400 FD|$6800 DK)
74% Reception rate. 153 Targets, 113 Receptions, nine yards per target (2018).
Adam Thielen gets a bump here if Diggs sits and it sounds like he will due to a hamstring injury. Thielen was a focal point of the Vikings offense as indicated by his target share in 2018. I don’t expect this to change. Although Chad Beebe could get some looks here with Diggs on the sideline.
NFL DFS WR: Kenny Golladay (DET) ($6900 FD|$6300 DK)
58% Reception rate. 119 Targets, 70 Receptions, nine yards per target (2018).
Golladay is a personal top play for me in week one, so he will make it into the high tier at mid range price. This Arizona team has a lot of question marks and I firmly believe they will end up being a bottom five defensive unit by the end of the regular season. Golladay has voiced his aspirations for a 100 catch season and I don’t see why I can’t put a 10 reception dent in that goal with one of the better WR/CB matchups on the slate.
NFL DFS RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($8900 FD|$8800 DK)
86% Reception rate. 124 Targets, 107 Receptions, seven yards per target (2018).
CMC was the top pick on my running back breakdown if you had the chance to read that. He is one of the most utilized backs in the league and offers one of the highest usage percentages of any player. He has a snap share of 94.5% and is a staple in the red zone. Go ahead and lock him in.
NFL DFS RB: Saquon Barkley (NYG) ($9200 FD|$9000 DK)
75% Reception rate. 121 Targets, 91 Receptions, six yards per target (2018).
I’m hearing some chatter for a Saquon Barkley fade and I just don’t see it. Yes, the Cowboys have a great defense and they will likely improve in 2019. One thing that is being overlooked is the NYG improvements on their offensive line. They signed Kevin Zeitler at right guard, probably their weakest spot on the Oline prior to the signing. Zeitler is allowing one QB pressure per 58 passing snaps. I will prioritize CMC over Barkley but I still think Barkley is a good option.
Mid Tier
NFL DFS WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) ($6800 FD|$5700 DK)
71% Reception rate. 56 Targets, 40 Receptions, 10 yards per target (2018).
Cooper Kupp went out on November 11th last year with a knee injury so his stats aren’t as appealing as the others. But he draws an excellent matchup against the Panthers and is one of Goff’s favorite weapons. You should also consider Robert Woods who is also in a good spot.
NFL DFS WR: Tyler Lockett (SEA) ($6800 FD|$6000 DK)
79% Reception rate. 77 Targets, 61 Receptions, 14 yards per target (2018).
This should be one of the more popular plays on the slate as Russell Wilson doesn’t have a ton of options to throw to (not that he ever did) but manages to get it in done week in and out. He draws a favorable matchup against B.W. Webb of the Bengals. Will Dissly serves as a pivot/punt in larger GPP’s.
NFL DFS WR: Chris Godwin (TBB) ($6900 FD|$6200 DK)
62% Reception rate. 95 Targets, 59 Receptions, nine yards per target (2018).
Same thing I talked about with Mike Evans. Matchup made in heaven against the 49er’s secondary. I don’t believe he will out perform big Mike but he certainly has upside here.
Low Tier/Punts
NFL DFS WR: Cole Beasley (BUF) ($4800 FD|$3600 DK)
76% Reception rate. 91 Targets, 69 Receptions, eight yards per target (2018).
He draws one of the worst cover corners in the game while lining up in the slot (Brian Poole) and reports coming out of Buffalo suggest Allen and Beasley have great chemistry. This was one of the missing pieces and now Josh Allen has a receiver who can serve as a great relief valve when defenses are amping up the pressure.
NFL DFS WR: Chad Beebe (MIN) ($4800 FD|$3000 DK)
No numbers in 2018 for Beebe but this is a name you should remember going into week one. Diggs should sit and this kid crushed it through the pre season and camp. Beebe is my sleeper punt play of the week and he’s off of everyone’s radar.
NFL DFS WR: Willie Snead IV (BAL) ($4800 FD|$4000 DK)
64% Reception rate. 101 Targets, 65 Receptions, seven yards per target (2018).
Aside from Mark Andrews, Snead should be a prime target for Lamar Jackson. I believe he’s good for 5-6 catches for 60 yards and one TD.
NFL DFS WR: Chris Conley (JAC) ($4500 FD|$3100 DK)
58% Reception rate. 55 Targets, 32 Receptions, six yards per target (2018).
For those that overlooked it, Conley and Foles actually practiced together in Kansas City for a year in 2016. There is talk of excellent chemistry between the two coming out of camp and Conley serves as a cheap pivot away from Dede Westbrook or Keelan Cole. Boost to Conley if Marquie Lee sits on Sunday.
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Adam Thielen Featured Image via Keith Allison
