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Week 2 FREE NFL Prop Pick Focus: Mark Andrews TE vs ARI
*** NOTE: Andrews ended up on the injury report (foot) after I started this article, though I did already begin my position (pictured later on). I would suggest waiting to confirm his status before wagering. I’m going to execute this same strategy before finishing my own position. So far in this early season, I have found every one of these picks to be ahead of the market value (this one included at last check). Rather than lose out on that value, I start a percentage of my bet on the algo hit, then add to my bets based on line movement as we get closer to kickoff.***
TE Stats – Mark Andrews (6′ 4″, 256 lbs)
Andrews’ eight looks in Week 1 represented a team leading 31% of the target share. He also led the team in passing snaps, lining up on 20 of the 25 total (80%). Andrews’ total snap count of 32 represented only 42% of the total offensive snaps, but Baltimore went into mercy mode by the 4th quarter using RGIII, so I wouldn’t base any assumptions of week two usage off such circumstantial data.
Week 1 Pass Alignment vs MIA
Andrews’ size and style lends itself perfectly to Jackson’s mobility and accuracy in the short passing game. Jackson completed 10 of 11 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in Week 1. I imagine the Ravens will continue to use Lamar’s mobility to draw linebackers away from that same space to free up room for more short receptions.
Week 1 Route Distribution & Success vs MIA
| Trg | Rec | Int | TD | YPT | aDot | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dig | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 116.7 |
| Out | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 97.9 |
| Go Route | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 39.0 | 30.0 | 118.8 |
| Curl | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 118.8 |
| Drag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 118.8 |
| Flat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 91.7 |
| Overall | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 158.3 |
Big Mark was effective all over the field, showing some real versatility in the passing game. I especially love this part of his game as it allows for coordinators to best use his size to create open windows. Some TEs are extremely limited in their route running, and Mark does not fall into that category whatsoever. I fully expect this trend to continue against a struggling & injured Arizona defense.
Week 1 Receiving Direction
| Outside Lt | Between Numbers | Outside Rt | |
| 20+ | 0/0 | 1/1 (0) 39 (9) 0 TD, 0 INT | 0/0 |
| 10+ | 0/0 | 1/1 (0) 21 (8) 0 TD, 0 INT | 0/0 |
| 0+ | 0/0 | 3/3 (0) 27 (13) 1 TD, 0 INT | 3/3 (0) 21 (3) 0 TD, 0 INT |
Most of Andrews’ usage in Week 1 was up the middle. To reiterate, this is a direct result of Lamar forcing middle linebackers to sacrifice pass coverage in order to try and keep him contained. As long as Lamar is under center, Mark will continue to be featured in the offense in this manner.
Week 1 Individual Matchups vs MIA
| Defender | Pos | Tgt | Rec |
| vs. Reshad Jones | S | 1 | 1 |
| vs. Jerome Baker | LB | 1 | 1 |
| vs. Sam Eguavoen | LB | 1 | 1 |
| vs. Jomal Wiltz | CB | 1 | 1 |
| vs. Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | 4 | 4 |
Andrews’ size and route versatility made him a difficult cover no matter what the defense threw at him. His matchup this week isn’t much worse and if we get anywhere near the same type of efficiency, this bet is going to cash early.
QB: Lamar Jackson, 2018/2019
The Ravens were the most well-oiled offensive machine in the league week one. Lamar’s 2018 stats mean very little to me, but I did want to point out something above. Since starting at QB, Jackson generally throws 20-25% more passes than he did Sunday due to that huge lead. If usage remains somewhat constant, Lamar should throw 24 passes with nearly one third (8) going to the TE and if we can haul in half, we’re in the money.
Opposing Defensive Ranks: Arizona Cardinals
The Cards’ secondary is badly banged up and it showed against the Lions. I fully understand it’s only one week, but they’re sitting at or near the bottom of every major defensive passing category. The Ravens are so versatile on offense it’s hard to imagine them not moving the ball at will and scoring in the mid twenties, minimum.
Individual 2019 DB Usage:
Tight Ends face the widest array of coverage as far as specific personnel, but Andrews’ most likely matchups will be B.Baker & T.Brock. Neither of these Cardinals can match size or strength with Big Mark, especially where it’s most critical; At the point of impact on the line of scrimmage. Size was an issue for Arizona in pass coverage week one against Hockenson, and given the health concerns in that secondary there’s no reason to expect a marked change in defensive production.
| 2018 | Trg | Rec | Comp% |
| B. Baker, S (5′ 10″ 195) | 55 | 44 | 80% |
| T. Brock, CB (6′ 0” 188) | 39 | 21 | 54% |
Budda Baker was especially bad at defending passes last year, something I’m sure the BAL staff is well aware of. If Andrews lines up against him (especially in a one on one situation) I expect that to be exploited early and often.
FREE NFL Prop Pick: Mark Andrews Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)
I’m going to use $100 as a benchmark for everyone to follow. However, my personal written strategy is a bit more complex when it comes to risk management. I’ll be adding alternate strategies and some advanced game theories to the bottom of these articles for reference. Since the odds are plus, the most simple attack plan is to bet our risk unit (R) on the Over 3.5 Recs.
REMEMBER TO NEVER BET BEYOND YOUR ALLOTTED RISK TOLERANCE. PERSONALLY, I NEVER RISK MORE THAN 1% OF MY TOTAL STACK ON A SINGLE EVENT. EVER.
DON’T TILT AND DON’T CHASE. WE IDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AND ATTACK WITH A VERY STRICT AND REGIMENTED PLAN. PERIOD.
I play every single bet I’ve ever put out for you, the readers. I would never recommend something I’m not willing to wager on myself. If lines do change not in our favor, you can decide to not take the play. For example, in Week 1 I took half of my intended position on Dede Westbrook at (+122) but decided that the (-180) closing line wasn’t worth the freight. The only thing I can say to those people frustrated at line movements is this; Our WinDaily subscribers get early access to all of my algorithm plays before I do the full write ups for twenty bucks a month. If you don’t think that’s worth it, I can’t help you.
An Alternate Approach to Week 2 FREE NFL Prop Pick Strategy (Based on $100 Risk):
Anyone who follows my work or knows me personally will tell you I’m driven by profit, I think outside the box & I’m a stickler for every percentage point. Sometimes in life, you have to be more aggressive with your approach. The key is to do it without increasing risk.
However, I sometimes like to try and maximize the potential on my wagers a bit more. We can accomplish this by scaling our bet, without changing that overall risk. I provide a very specific example below using live lines.
Using that same $100, we can spread out our chips in an attempt to maximize the exponential payout that comes with extra production.
For example(s)
| Standard | Bet | Pay | Total | Profit | % P/L |
| O 3.5(+100) | $100 | $100.00 | $200.00 | $100.00 | 100.00% |
| Alternate 1 | Bet | Pay | Total | Profit | % P/L |
| O 3.5(+100) | $60 | $60.60 | $120.60 | $20.60 | 20.60% |
| O 4.5(+185) | $10 | $18.50 | $149.10 | $49.10 | 49.10% |
| O 5.5(+392) | $10 | $39.20 | $198.30 | $98.30 | 98.30% |
| O 6.5(+1000) | $10 | $100.00 | $308.30 | $208.30 | 208.30% |
