adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
It is time to move on to Week 3 DFS. Now we finally have some data to build off of! We will go through each matchup game by game, and I will give my best buys and fades via DraftKings prices.
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Early Games
BENGALS AT BILLS
Josh Allen is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks dating back to last season. His fantasy points per game rank only behind Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes since week 12. He is $5,900 on DraftKings which is a great value. Allen has passed for 200-yards in seven straight games and receivers to stack with Allen is John Brown at $5,500 and Cole Beasley at $4,400. The pair has totaled 50% of the team’s total targets this season.
It is worth noting that Zay Jones saw more offensive snaps in Week 2 than Beasley, 59% to 49%, respectively. The Bengals defense has also been absolute trash this season. On just a total of 45 passing attempts, the Bengals have allowed 491 passing yards and five passing touchdowns. Allen has attempted an average of 34 passing attempts through his first two weeks.
Defensively, the Bills are strong against receivers outside of Jamison Crowder because of his 17-target game. Crowder ran 83% of his snaps from the slot where he saw 12 of his 17 targets. Among the Bengals’ skill players, Tyler Boyd ($6,500) saw eight of his 10 targets from the slot in Week Two. The Bengals lead the league in dropbacks, so as they continue to throw Boyd will continue to produce. With John Ross ($5,100) drawing the majority of coverage from Tre’Davious White the matchup might be tough.
That might create an opportunity for Damion Willis ($3,000), who ranks 19th in the NFL in total routes run. The Bengals have run 77% of their plays from 11-personnel. That has been not great for the run game, however; the Bengals are averaging 1.5 yards/carry from that personnel package. There could be better days ahead for Joe Mixon ($5,500) though. Defensively the Buffalo Bills have allowed 5.6 yards/carry from 11-personnel. The 63% success rate they have allowed is second-highest in the NFL.
LIONS AT EAGLES
Through the first two weeks of the 2019 season, the Eagles continue to struggle against wide receivers in the passing game. They have allowed the second-most fantasy points at that position after ranking third-worst all of last season. Enter the Lions outside receivers that include Kenny Golladay ($6,600), Marvin Jones ($5,000), and Danny Amendola ($3,800). Jones is a great value as Matthew Stafford continues to open up and be more aggressive on plays down the field.
According to Next Gen Stats, Stafford has thrown 30 passes with an aggressiveness rating of 20-percent (seventh-most in the league). Additionally, Amendola ranks fifth highest in the NFL in average yards of separation. T.J. Hockenson ($3,500) is another player to target for the tight end position. Both Vernon Davis and Austin Hooper had nice outings against the Eagles in their first two games. They amassed at least four receptions and six targets apiece.
For the Eagles, it is chalk Week 3 DFS at the receiver position. In cash games, Nelson Agholor is the definite play at $3,600. He will be highly owned, so the perfect pivots off him are J.J. Arcega-Whiteside at $3,500, and Mack Hollins at $3,200.
JETS AT PATRIOTS
Just because it is likely to be a blowout does not mean that guys will be rested and not be productive. We saw that just last week with Tom Brady ($6,600) who scored 24.7 fantasy points in a game where Sony Michel ($6,00) had 21 carries. If game flow goes correctly Michel should absolutely smash at home.
Last season versus the Jets, Michel averaged 17.5 rushing attempts 91.5 yards, and .5 touchdowns. Last season at home, Michel averaged 80 rushing yards/game with 18.7 attempts and scored five touchdowns. I would not pay up for any wide receiver on the Patriots because the touchdown distribution is too volatile. With the release of Antonio Brown, both Julian Edelman ($6,300) and Josh Gordon ($5,400) are in play. The Patriots D/ST ($3,800) is definitely back in play if it fits into your lineup.
The Jets only option here is Le’Veon Bell ($7,000) in GPPs. Luke Falk absolutely peppered Bell with targets last week and the Patriots will be more than happy to let Bell catch three balls and then let them punt.
RAIDERS AT VIKINGS
Dalvin Cook ($7,800) is an absolute lock in cash games. His usage in both the passing game and running game make him game script proof. Focus on Cook and the Vikings D/ST ($3,300) as cash options. On the Raiders, Tyrell Williams’ ($5,600) price has gone up and the ownership should go down. Williams is going to get the Xavier Rhodes treatment, making him a fade.
The only Raiders option is rookie wide receiver Hunter Renfrow ($3,700) for GPPs. He’s a pivot off Agholor for sure and he saw as many targets as Williams in Week 2. He saw more snaps in the slot than Ryan Grant and the Vikings can be had there. Minnesota’s primary slot corner, Mackensie Alexander, has a dislocated his elbow. That forced him to miss Week 2, and he is likely going to miss more time. For the time being, Jayron Kearse is the team’s solution to fill in for the banged-up defensive back. He has been targeted 13 times already this season.
RAVENS AT CHIEFS
This is the game everybody will be on with the highest total for Week 3 DFS at 52 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. There are a lot of ways to approach this game. For me, it is the Chiefs running backs, not receivers that are the best play here. Everybody is going to flock to the receivers that include Mecole Hardman ($5,000), Demarcus Robinson ($5,200) and Sammy Watkins ($6,800). It’s difficult to project which one will end up catching a long-ball from Patrick Mahomes ($7,600), because if it does not turn into a touchdown they may not worth the roster spot.
If Mahomes continues to struggle in the red zone it could be the Chiefs running backs that steal the touchdown equity in this game. Darwin Thompson ($3,000) needs to be looked at as he may be in for a significant workload.
On the Ravens side, Lamar Jackson ($7,000) is another lock for lineups across the board in cash and GPPs. Mark Andrews ($4,600) isn’t priced correctly so he is another value. Willie Snead ($4,200) and Miles Boykin ($3,000) could be the GPP plays. Snead led the Ravens in targets the last time these two teams played each other. Boykin’s routes run tripled in Week 2 from Week 1. They could increase even more in Week 3 DFS.
FALCONS AT COLTS
Do not play Matt Ryan ($5,700) on the road, especially behind his porous offensive line. Running backs Devonta Freeman ($4,900) and Ito Smith ($3,700) are splitting snaps to a 55% to 45% rate in slight favor of Freeman. The matchup is great against a Colts defense that is allowing over 124 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per attempt. The defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the running back position so far throughout 2019.
Looking at the two players statistically behind the same offensive line, Freeman is averaging 2.2 yards/carry while Ito Smith is averaging 6.3 yards/carry. At that price and matchup, while considering their production through two weeks, Smith might be the sneakier play here.
For the Colts, it looks like a smash spot for Marlon Mack ($5,800) if he is healthy. If not, Jordan Wilkins would become a very viable option at $3,500. We always target running backs versus the Falcons as they funnel targets to that position. Though Mack has not been targeted heavily he was out on the field running routes, so the potential is there.
BRONCOS AT PACKERS
Fire up the Packers D/ST at $3,400. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($6,100) should also be considered because he is at home. The Broncos have also not faced a legitimate quarterback yet this season. On the road last year the Broncos allowed 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,300) has a nice matchup on the right side against Isaac Yiadom. Valdez-Scantling is always a guy who can make a big play, so he is a GPP target.
On the Broncos side, Emmanuel Sanders continues to be #toocheap at just $4,800. Courtland Sutton ($4,500) should also be considered a nice pivot off the cheaper wide receivers this week. If Jaire Alexander ends up shadowing Sanders, Sutton becomes the best play. Sutton has run essentially the same amount of routes as Sanders and has 14 to Sanders’ 19 targets. The touchdown equity has just been going to Sanders. That could easily change.
DOLPHINS AT COWBOYS
Play Ezekiel Elliott $8,900 in all formats. I know many people out are scared off of Elliott because they fear the Cowboys will be ahead by so much that they will just rest him in the latter half of the game. Even if that happens it would be after Elliott smashes at the start of the game. The Dolphins have allowed a whopping 26 red zone touches to running backs in just the last two weeks. Historically as well, in games where the Cowboys have won by more than 21 or more points, Elliott has put up the following game logs in terms of rushing.
- 18 attempts for 92 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
- 12 attempts for 80 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
- 26 attempts for 147 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
- 24 attempts for 106 yards and one rushing touchdown.
- Average of 20 rushing attempts for 106 yards and 1.75 rushing touchdowns.
In those same games, Dak Prescott ($6,500) has averaged 216.5 passing yards and 2.75 passing touchdowns. From a receiver standpoint Jason Witten ($3,700) has produced well in blowouts along with whoever is the primary slot receiver and Randall Cobb ($4,600) would be the primary target. Elliott and Prescott are extremely viable cash options with those latter options more of GPP targets.
As for Miami, the only player I would even consider rostering would be Preston Williams ($3,700). He had a nice connection with Josh Rosen ($4,500) during the preseason. The Cowboys D/ST ($4,300) could be a trap.
Everybody who did not play the Patriots D/ST last week missed out on the 37-point performance. However, the Patriots D/ST is actually a good defense, whereas the Cowboys D/ST has been bad even in two-plus matchups against the Giants and Redskins. They scored just seven total fantasy points.
Late Games
GIANTS AT BUCCANEERS
The Giants are running the ball at an extremely efficient rate. They are averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks number one in the NFL. Then, when you consider that the Buccaneers will most likely be without starting rookie linebacker Devin White, Saquon Barkley ($9,100) is going to be chomping at the bit to produce in this matchup. Then factor in that Evan Engram ($5,200) is also facing a Buccaneers defense that has been ripped by tight ends the last two weeks. Greg Olsen had six receptions for 110 yards and George Kittle had eight receptions for 54 yards with two touchdowns called back due to penalties.
Daniel Jones ($5,000) does offer upside as a runner in his first NFL start and impressed during the preseason. If you are looking to save at QB, creating a stack of Jones, Engram and Barkley could be solid in GPPs. Expect to see Sterling Shepard ($4,900) back on the field playing the majority of his snaps in the slot. But don’t overlook the preseason and backup connection between Jones and Bennie Fowler ($3,700). Fowler is, however, dealing with a hamstring injury and Cody Latimer ($3,800) is out.
This should also be a bounce-back game for Jameis Winston ($5,400). Winston is at home and the New York Giants have given up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Specifically, it has been the receiver position that has dominated the Giants through the first two weeks. If Winston can just distribute the ball to his elite playmakers like Mike Evans ($6,600) and Chris Godwin ($6,900) he should have a Top 10 fantasy finish in Week 3 DFS.
In Winston’s five starts at home last season he threw at least two touchdowns in four of them and averaged 297 passing yards. Evans is in a huge bounce-back spot as well, especially versus the Giants who he has owned in the past. In his last three games versus Big Blue, he has averaged 12.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 112.3 receiving yards.
PANTHERS AT CARDINALS
If the first two weeks of the season have told us anything, there are going to be a lot of plays run in this game. It’s insane how often the Cardinals are running four-receiver sets. Arizona is running 10+ personnel on 64% of their plays through the first two weeks of the season. The next closest team is the Rams at 11%. Larry Fitzgerald ($5,100), Damiere Byrd ($3,000), Curtis Samuel ($4,800), Christian Kirk ($5,000), and D.J. Moore ($5,900) are the top five leaders in routes run so far in 2019.
Exposure to all of these receivers in some fashion will be beneficial. I like Kirk and Fitzgerald in cash specifically with Byrd and Samuel more as GPP plays. Also, Greg Olsen is in a smash spot in Week 3 DFS at $3,700 against the team that is league-worst versus the tight end position.
STEELERS AT 49ERS
Buy into the James Washington ($3,500) to Mason Rudolph ($4,800) narrative. Washington is a throwing machine and has shown good chemistry in the preseason with Rudolph. He is worth a shot in GPPs at the receiver position. For the 49ers, George Kittle ($5,600) is vastly underpriced and Deebo Samuel ($4,500) is emerging as a primary option in the passing game.
SAINTS AT SEAHAWKS
Alvin Kamara ($8,000) is the ultimate GPP buy-back this week. He burned a lot of owners last week, which is it’s time to buy back in for Week 3 DFS. On the Seahawks side consider DK Metcalf ($4,700) and Tyler Lockett ($6,200) against a suspect Saints secondary. They have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position so far in 2019.
TEXANS AT CHARGERS
Austin Ekeler ($7,200) is a stone-cold lock again at the RB slot. He is the cheapest of the upper-tier backs that get all the touches. He is still underpriced despite being the number one running back in fantasy through the first two weeks. Mike Williams ($4,900) is also interesting because of his touchdown upside that is being overlooked. The Texans do not have a good secondary. Will Fuller ($4,900) is still seeing a very high ADOT: 24.3. This game could be a sneaky shootout featuring two gunslingers in Deshaun Watson ($6,400) and Philip Rivers ($5,800) for Week 3 DFS.
