The Kiddie Corps of Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones defined the state of QB play in Week 3. As the Week 4 DFS QB Picks column starts rolling, expect the big boys to step and deliver.
As usual, we’re focusing on the main slate, so Eagles-Packers (Carson Wentz v. Aaron Rodgers) on Thursday night and Dak Prescott (Cowboys-Saints on Sunday night) won’t get a lot of focus.
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Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers
1) Phillip Rivers, LAC at MIA
DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)
Any quarterback is a Cash Game play against the Dolphins, who allow 36.36 Fantasy points per game to opposing passers. Rivers was sacked five times in the loss to the Texans on Sunday and remains 0-fer since 2015 when he has attempted more than 40 passes.
This will be the week where Rivers gets his air yards per attempt healthy. He’s sitting at 3.0, nearly a yard less from last season. Look for his 7.8 passing yards after catch per completion to get fat as well.
2) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. CAR
DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)
Like Rivers, Watson is getting 7.8 yards after catch per completion. He’s also been blitzed 10 times per game, yet his 7.7 yards per scramble is making defenders pay dearly. An underrated sign of a potential breakout is that Watson has cut down on his bad throw percentage, paring it to 12.9% after after last season’s 16.6%
Carolina remains an above-average defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, yet are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing passers. That’s a strong sign that Watson could rack up 40-50 rushing yards and a score in a game that will be more offensive friendly than advertised.
3) Dak Prescott, DAL at NO (Sunday Night)
DK ($6,300), FD ($8,400)
Gotta add him here if you’re playing the full Sunday slate. Saints are 30th in QB-friendly Fantasy production, with them allowing a combined 348.7 yards and 3.3 TDs per game from them. This will be a track meet that makes Prescott a strong CG play for another week.
3) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. OAK
DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)
Count on Brissett to continue the upward trend of his Fantasy output. He posted 20.8 Fantasy points last week and hit 8.4 yards per attempt with another multi-TD passing performance. Oakland is 22nd in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposition passers while allowing 295 yards per game.
Brissett completes nearly 72 percent of his passes, and I’m all-in with his 121 TD%+ rate. Andrew Luck he’s not, but Brissett is a subtle assassin that will be a bargain about Week 4 DFS QB Picks.
4) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. KC
DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)
Stafford let a lot of his down with his lackluster effort against the Eagles, but I have just enough blind faith in him to again offer him as a Cash Game passer. He’s getting a solid 12.4 yards per completion and his 7.7 average depth of target will play well, especially with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson, who faces a Chiefs defense that is 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing TEs.
The Lions have been sure-handed thus, as Stafford has had just two of his 107 attempts dropped. He’s produced 5.9 air yards per pass completion and I think he’ll be up to the task of matching up with Patrick Mahomes in what should be a game on heavy stack alert.
5) Russell Wilson, SEA at ARI
DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)
I don’t suspect Wilson will attempt 50 passes this week, but he should come close to the 27.4 Fantasy points per game he has averaged thus far. Wilson is getting 9.9 yards per completion and has averaged 300 yards per game without throwing an interception in 105 attempts.
The Cardinals are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks and have given up a league-high 47 rushing yards per game to opposing passers. I can see 310-320 yards passing and at least one rushing score of out of Wilson.
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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers
1) Patrick Mahomes, KC at DET
DK ($7,500), FD ($8,400)
News flash: The Lions are eighth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s not hot dog water considering that Phillip Rivers and Carson Wentz are among the pivots (Canadian term) they’ve faced. Of all of his PlayStation-level numbers, it’s Mahomes’ 9.6 yards after the catch per completion — without Tyreek Hill — that’s most impressive.
2) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. WAS
DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)
You know they’re going to throw the ball now that Saquan Barkley is out until perhaps after Thanksgiving. Jones is a strong value play against a Washington defense that is almost as Fantasy QB-friendly as the Dolphins. giving up 34.29 FP per game. Much of his 13.6 YAC per completion came from Evan Engram, but against a team that allows three TD passes per game and 25 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, I’d be willing to play Jones in a lineup or two.
3) Tom Brady, NE at BUF
DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)
Tommy hasn’t been so Terrific against the Bills recently, posting a 3:4 TD:INT rate in his past four games against them. His yards per attempt have bounced from 8.60 to 5.25 YPA in the same span. He’s here because the Pats’ run game is inconsistent, which means he’ll throw around 30-35 times. There’s risk, as the Bills are sixth overall in limiting Fantasy points to opposing QBs.
4) Jared Goff, LAR vs. TB
DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)
Let’s not give Goff too many slices of the Pie of Blame. He’s had five dropped passes already after having 13 last season. His air yards per completion is cut more than half, while his average depth per target is almost split in two. The Buccaneers got shredded by a rookie QB last week. and Goff has way too much firepower to continue languishing as an afterthought.
5) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. PHI (Thursday Night)
DK ($6,000), FD ($7,700)
The better of the two QBs for Showdown formats. The Eagles still allow 300 yards per game and Rodgers is too damn good to go a fourth straight game under 15 Fantasy points.
6) Carson Wentz, PHI at GB (Thursday Night)
DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)
Likely another game without DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Yes, the seven drops in the loss to the Lions is crippling to his numbers, but how much longer will we dodge the question of whether we’ve been sold a bag of goods on how great Wentz is supposed to be. He’s likely Matthew Stafford when everyone wants him to be Tom Brady.
7) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TEN
DK ($5,900), FD ($7,900)
The interceptions (six) remain an issue, but he did get past the 20 FP barrier in the loss to the Colts. I’ll keep waiting for his average depth per target to get beyond his current 6.6. They’re not dropping ball in the ATL, as Ryan has had just two of his 123 attempts plop out of his receivers’ hands. I’ll bet this is a high-scoring affair with Ryan outslugging Marcus Mariota.
8) Jameis Winston, TB @ LAR
DK ($5,700), FD ($7,500)
Good Number: Has averaged 384 yards and 2.5 TDs in two previous games against the Rams.
Bad Number: Uh, Jameis…about that 2.5 air yards per pass attempt…
9) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. SEA
DK ($6,000), FD ($7,600)
Good Number: He’s averaging 45.6 attempts per game.
Bad Number: The 2.86 yards per attempt against the Panthers makes me sleep with the lights on.
10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at BAL
DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)
Good Number: A 7.4 YAC per completion is due to rise once he snaps out of his early season funk.
Bad Number: 11.3 Fantasy points per game does not scream “Breakout Star.”
Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers
1) Andy Dalton, CIN at PIT (Monday Night)
DK ($5,200), FD ($7,100)
Decreasing Fantasy points per game since Week 1. Steelers are giving up 306 yards and 2.3 TDs to opposing passers, so Dalton could get Captain’s status for Showdown.
2) Derek Carr, OAK at IND
DK ($5,300), FD ($7,100)
Colts are 28th vs. opposing TEs, so this should be a good outing for Darren Waller. His production could boost Carr into the outer edge of GPP performers.
3) Kyle Allen, CAR at HOU
DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)
If Allen can get his WRs involved, he makes for a sleeper play. The Texans are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wideouts.
4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at ATL
DK ($5,100), FD ($6,900)
Hovering at under 61% completion rate, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in 90 attempts and his running skills on a fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium makes him intriguing.
5) Josh Allen, BUF vs. NE
DK ($5,600), FD ($7,400)
Low-end boom/bust option. Running ability could outshine his shaky passing numbers.
6) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. CIN (Monday Night)
DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)
Expect the Steelers to open things up for Rudolph. Completion rate will be scary, but he has the weapons to deliver 4-5 big plays on Monday night.
