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RING THE BELL, THE NEW YORK PROP EXCHANGE IS OPEN! Are you ready for your N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 5.2 picks? We had a profitable Week 4, cashing our two +EV bets. TNF didn’t go as planned; Bad Andy showed up, Ross went down with an injury & Eifert dropped our cashing reception twice. Such is life in the world of gambling, which is also why risk management is so important (I’ve attached some thoughts on strategy below today’s pick). Due to line movements, lineup changes, injures, etc make sure that you’re checking my Twitter @MLBMovingAvg & my author page periodically before game times https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ for new breakdowns, plays and additions to the weekend’s bet slip. Thanks so much for subscribing, interacting and following along.
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 5.2 Pick
Leveon Bell, RB NYJ Over 5.5 Rec (-122)
Without S.Darnold the Jets are a one dimensional offense with very little going right. Luke Falk taking over the QB position again represents a full spectrum downgrade for the entire Jet offense, except maybe for volume receptions for Lev Bell. Bell caught 20 passes already on only 23 targets working as the escape valve thus far. I expect that to continue this weekend against the Eagles who have not defended RBs in the passing game well. PHI sits at 25th or worse in RB targets, receptions, and yards allowed. The combination of the Eagles likely being ahead in this game with Bell’s +96% usage bodes well for him to come down with six grabs Sunday
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 5.2 Play
Strategy for Leveon Bell
I’m only betting the O5.5 Rec straight, and I’d recommend a one unit max here. As much as I think we easily get to six, I’m not crazy about the payout as we go higher or the prospect of any type of Jet offensive potency.
General Risk Strategy
I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
Daily Betting Strategies
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Betting Tips
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
John L. prepares these articles in his personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.
As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.
