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Are you ready for Week 5 DFS? We are a quarter of a way through the season and we finally have a nice sample size to work with. We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys and fades via DraftKings prices.
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Early Games
Cardinals at Bengals
Quarterback Kyler Murray is set up for success in Week 5 against the Bengals. He is priced at $6,300 on DraftKings, because of the great matchup. The Bengals have allowed at least 16 fantasy points to all quarterbacks they have faced this season, along with multiple touchdowns passes to three quarterbacks in four games. There is also rushing upside for Murray versus the Bengals. They allowed 46 rushing yards to Josh Allen in Week 3 on nine rushing attempts. Murray has rushed for 96 yards in the last two weeks. In GPPs you can stack Murray with David Johnson ($7,500). With no Christian Kirk in this game, Johnson should see even more volume in the passing game. Luckily for him the Bengals are allowing the most receptions to the running back position.
On the Bengals side, wide receiver Auden Tate is going to be the chalk low-priced receiver at just $3,500. He has seen 14 targets over the past two weeks and has led the Bengals in receptions and receiving yards over the same time span. With John Ross placed on injured reserve, Tate should see even more opportunities to produce against a very weak Arizona secondary. Both defenses are also in play. Both of them rank at the bottom of the league in terms of quarterback sacks allowed. I slightly favor the Bengals at $2,500.
Ravens at Steelers
Via Pro Football Focus, 68.2% of Mason Rudolph’s passing yards have come from yards after the catch. That percentage is by far the highest in the NFL. Something like that is usually not sustainable except in this case versus the Ravens. They have allowed the most yards after the catch to receivers. Marlon Humphrey shut down Odell Beckham Jr. last week, but that was with him playing on the outside. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,400) should primarily remain in the slot, giving him some sneaky bounce-back appeal at low ownership. Smith-Schuster ranks fourth in the NFL in yards after the catch (8.1).
DraftKings continues to undervalue Mark Andrews. He is priced at just $4,800 despite the fact that he has seen at least seven targets in every single game this season. His target market share of the Ravens’ offense is at 23.53%, which ranks Top Five at the position.
Falcons at Texans
This is going to be a great game to stack for DFS in Week 5. It combines two high-powered offenses with two bad defenses. Deshaun Watson (at $6,700) deserves consideration in cash games with his rushing floor and Matt Ryan (at $5,900) is a player to get exposure to in GPPs. This game also seems like a great get-right matchup for receivers that have struggled thus far. This includes guys like Julio Jones ($7,700), Calvin Ridley ($4,900), DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800), and Will Fuller ($4,500), who has the most air yards of any receiver who does not have a touchdown reception. The Texans also have the third-highest implied team total on the slate, making their lead running back Carlos Hyde (at $4,300) a good value. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most rushing attempts to the running back position and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns on the road this season.
Bills at Titans
The Tennesse Titans DST ($3,000) and Derrick Henry ($6,000) are both great plays on DraftKings in Week 5. The Titans are favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills, who will have either turnover-prone Josh Allen or backup Matt Barkley starting at quarterback. The Titans have not allowed more than 20 points yet this season and have totaled 13 sacks. Henry ranks third in the NFL in team market share of carries and is getting starting left tackle Taylor Lewan back in the starting lineup.
The only players on the Bills to consider are a few of their receivers. John Brown ($5,100), Cole Beasley ($4,600), and Dawson Knox ($3,100) are all in play. Brown is going to be covered by Malcolm Butler, who has allowed the fifth most-yards in coverage this season. Beasley and Knox should see the majority of underneath targets. If the Titans shut down the long ball, that will funnel the passing game to those two players. We saw it last week when Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu combined for 23 targets when they faced the Titans.
Bears at Raiders (London)
Outside of the DST at $3,800, the only other Bears to consider are their running backs. Both David Montgomery ($5,200) and Tarik Cohen ($4,800) have interesting appeal in Week 5. In three games with the backup quarterback, Chase Daniel, Cohen has totaled 27 targets. Montgomery could be the greatest beneficiary of a positive game script if the Bears get up early on the Raiders. He has seen an increased workload every single week this season and that trend should continue in Week 5. Keep an eye on the status of running back Mike Davis. He was a healthy scratch last week.
For the Raiders, the only viable play here is tight end Darren Waller at $5,000. He is commanding 30% of targets in the offense, which is fourth-highest in the NFL of all players and he has still not scored a touchdown. Regression to the mean clearly shows that Waller is going to see the endzone sooner rather than later.
Jaguars at Panthers
The best-valued defense on the slate is definitely the Panthers DST at $2,600. They have scored double-digit fantasy points for three straight weeks and have 17 sacks over that time span. Jaguars’ quarterback Gardner Minshew was sacked five times last week. Also, you will want to keep tabs on the status of Jalen Ramsey. If Ramsey misses the game on Sunday, that would be a huge boost for both Curtis Samuel at $4,500 and D.J. Moore at $5,200. Without Ramsey last week both of the top receivers for the Denver Broncos scored 18 and 24 fantasy points, respectively.
For Jacksonville, the only player to focus on is Leonard Fournette at $6,400. He still has not scored a touchdown yet this season and that trend is going to end soon. The amount of touches Fournette is seeing is just too many for him to have not scored. He is seeing over 90% of the running workload and 20% in the passing game. Fournette has 96 total touches this season, which translates to 24 per game. At this rate, it is just a matter of time until Fournette finds the end zone.
Vikings at Giants
Kirk Cousins (at $5,300) and Adam Thielen (at $6,700) is a stack that needs to be considered in GPPs in Week 5. All the talks throughout the week have been about doing more in the passing game. Specifically, Cousins also apologized for not getting Thielen the ball enough. This could easily be a huge blowup spot for them in this matchup versus the Giants. New York ranks fourth-worst against the wide receiver position and seventh-worst against the quarterback position in fantasy points allowed.
I am fading Wayne Gallman versus this stout Minnesota defense. They have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. His fantasy points were heavily inflated by touchdowns last week. The Vikings have allowed just one rushing touchdown to running backs.
Buccaneers at Saints
Tight end Jared Cook (at $3,400) is a sneaky play in Week 5. Right now quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is not forcing the ball downfield, but against Tampa Bay, the Saints may be forced to be more aggressive. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Buccaneers’ DVOA against short passes ranks seventh-best, whereas against deep passes it falls to 18th. Cook is coming off his highest target total of the season (six) and the Buccaneers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position. Cook owns the second-highest average depth of target on the Saints.
I am not so sure I am buying into the Tampa Bay offense in Week 5. Jameis Winston (at $6,200) is the fifth-highest priced quarterback on the slate but has never played well versus the Saints. He has never thrown for more than two touchdowns in seven career games versus New Orleans. He has only thrown for 300 yards once against them.
Patriots at Redskins
Another week for the Patriots and once again via the FanDuel Sportsbook they are favored by more than 15 points. So what does this mean for the offense in terms of DFS? Well, I think you can trust Tom Brady at $6,500. The Redskins defense is just bad. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season. I’m not even sure you need to stack Brady with anyone in cash. For GPPs, I like stacking Brady with Josh Gordon at $6,100 against the Redskins, who are the second-worst team versus wide receivers. Sony Michel ($5,500) is a nice GPP play for those that want to pivot off the Patriots’ passing game. If you decide to build a Patriots stack, the play back is tight end Jeremy Sprinkle at $2,500. Starting tight end Vernon Davis is currently in the concussion protocol and could easily miss the game on Sunday.
Jets at Eagles
Quarterback Carson Wentz (at $6,100) is a lock across cash game lineups. The Jets’ secondary is very bad and Wentz should be able to take full advantage of them. Wentz has scored at least 19.54 fantasy points in every single game this season. A Wentz to Zach Ertz ($6,000) stack is also definitely in play in GPPs. Ertz has at least seven targets in every game this season, but like Darren Waller has not scored a touchdown yet. He should see the end zone on Sunday. There’s also a chance that some New York receivers find the end zone on Sunday.
The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position this season. For that reason, Robby Anderson ($4,500) and Jamison Crowder ($4,300) are both in play as cheap value receivers.
Late Games
Broncos at Chargers
I love playing Austin Ekeler at $6,700 this week. The Broncos defense gave up over 200 rushing yards to Leonard Fournette last week, and until we see the true split with Ekeler and Melvin Gordon I will continue to go back to Ekeler. I understand fading him in cash formats, but in GPPs Ekeler is a lock for me.
Cornerback Casey Heyward projects to shadow cover Courtland Sutton ($4,900) making Emmanuel Sanders ($5,100) the better pivot play despite the slightly higher salary. Tight end Noah Fant (at $2,800), is another interesting punt play option. His snap rate increased to 73% in Week 4. He has seen at least four targets and had 29 receiving yards in every single game this season. The Chargers have allowed the second-most touchdowns to the tight end position.
Packers at Cowboys
Jaire Alexander is emerging as a top cornerback, but he does not shadow cover the opponent’s best wide receiver. 70% of his coverage has been out wide at the left cornerback position. Amari Cooper ($6,800) has played at the right receiver position just 42% of the time. After a disappointing Week 4, people will be off Cooper, especially with more being drawn in towards Ezekiel Elliott (at $8,300) in his matchup versus the league’s third-worst defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. The sharp move is to play them both in GPPs along with quarterback Dak Prescott at $6,000 for the trio Cowboys stack.
I really like Aaron Jones ($5,900) in tournaments if Jamaal Williams does not play in the game. With Davante Adams likely to also be held out of the game due to a turf toe injury, look for the Packers to utilize more of the running game. Jones should see plenty of volume as both a rusher and receiver. Also, possible sleeper WR Jake Kumerow at $3,800 in mind to see an increased snap share if Adams is inactive on Sunday.
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