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Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 8 TNF! Week 7 turned out another green screen for us, hitting 2 of 3 featured prop plays including Jacobs and Fournette up the ladder. Today’s play is a bit more conservative and only for a single unit, but that’s one of my personal keys to sustaining profit in sport markets; Eliminate the big loss. If you can relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m not going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success. I’ll be covering these types of topics on my new short form podcast, THE PROFITCAST (Link to episode 1 below)!
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N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 8 TNF
Kirk Cousins, QB Minnesota Vikings
Breakdown Prop Exchange Week 8 TNF
After a really slow start to the season not throwing for more than 233 yards through four games, Kirk Cousins has exploded for nearly one thousand yards over the last three weeks. The influx of yards has been met with an spike in accuracy as well; Cousins has completed at least 70% of his passes in every game this past month, with no less than 26 attempts in any contest. The Vikings seem to have shed their early aerial woes and in my opinion are still in a good position despite losing Thielen this week.
The Redskins problems are well noted, and show no signs of changing for the better heading into a really tough conference matchup on the road. WAS is 30th in offensive plays allowed, and 29th in pass completions allowed. On the surface some of the team defensive passing stats look better than I would assert they actually are. They have held four teams under 255 passing yards. The QBs to not eclipse this 255 passing yard mark were Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones, the Dolphin duo & Jimmy Grapes (Not exactly tier 1 QBs).
The Vikings should roll the Skins tonight, and I think 255 pass yards is a perfect, mid-expectation prop for even money. Let’s get it.
General Risk Strategy
I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
Daily Betting Strategies
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC parlay, and then play all three straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Prop Exchange Week 8 TNF
Management
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 8 TNF
John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.
As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.
