Andrew Erickson Best Values and GPP Stacks
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Value and Punt Plays
David Montgomery ($5,300) is one of the few lower-priced running backs on the main slate that you can have confidence in playing. Montgomery has put up 24.7 and 22.6 points the last two weeks, with him also seeing a 70% offensive snap share. Against a Detroit team allowing the most PPR points per game to running backs this year, Montgomery looks to be in a great spot. He is also involved in the passing game with nine targets over the past two weeks. He has more catches, targets, and routes run that Tarik Cohen ($4,200) over that time span. Montgomery also leads the Bears with 19 red zone touches, and 13 touches inside the five-yard line this season. Those 13 touches inside the five rank second-highest in the NFL.
The Browns are favorites at home despite being 2-6 versus a 6-2 Bills squad. The best Bills’ play is running back Devin Singletary ($5,000) for DFS Week 10. Singletary has now seen at least twice as many snaps played as Frank Gore, to go along with ten targets and the third most routes run on the team over the past two weeks. The only concern of rostering Singletary is goal-line work. Singletary has six touches versus Gore’s four touches in the red zone. He also has 23 carries over the past two weeks versus Gore’s 20 carries. Singletary is averaging five yards per carry versus Gore’s 2.4 yards per carry.
Favorite Stacks
For Atlanta Matt Ryan ($6,100) is definitely a GPP play in DFS Week 10. His top two receivers also need to be in there with Julio Jones ($7,500) and Calvin Ridley ($5,400). Ridley might be the best play of the two with the price based on his track record. In two games last year versus New Orleans Ridley averaged 10.5 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 119.5 yards with two touchdowns. Jones has just three career touchdowns versus the Saints in his career in 15 total games.
For the Arizona Cardinals, I absolutely love Kyler Murray ($6,500) as my go-to in cash games. He has running upside and is playing a defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. He also gets David Johnson ($5,700) who is rumored from a beat reporter from Arizona to be featured in the slot and passing game more. Then you throw in Christian Kirk ($5,200) who is Murray’s number one target and you have a nice stack. The Buccaneers rank worst in the NFL versus wide receivers. Players might be more inclined to see more of Andy Isabella ($3,300), but reports are that it does not mean he is going to see more snaps. Large field GPPs? Let’s roll with Damiere Byrd ($3,400).
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) looks like he is going to play in DFS Week 10 and if his ownership is lower because he is coming off an injury I am buying. He’s the best quarterback in the league and the Titans did just lose cornerback Malcolm Butler. Over the past two weeks, the Titans have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Tyreek Hill ($7,700) and Travis Kelce ($6,400) are nice options to pay up for in GPPs. Sammy Watkins ($5,100), who everybody wants to fade, has seen 18 targets over the past two weeks.
Contrarian Plays – DFS Week 10
There is also a strong chance that this is a bounce-back spot for Mitchell Trubisky ($5,100) in DFS Week 10. The Lions, over the past four weeks, have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Trubisky has also had a ton of success versus the Lions in the past, throwing for over 300 passing yards in his last two games against them. He has only thrown for 300 or more yards five times in his career. The reason the Lions have been so bad on defense is their lack of pass rush. They are generating pressure on just 19% of quarterback dropbacks this season. According to PFF Trubisky’s passer rating is 42.1 under pressure this season. It’s 95.9 in a clean pocket.
You will then want to stack Trubisky with Allen Robinson ($6,300), who is coming off a down game. Last year versus the Lions at home Robinson had six receptions for 133 yards and two touchdowns. Anthony Miller ($3,500) could be an interesting punt play. His best game in 2018 was versus the Lions when he went for 122 yards.
For the Lions, I do think that Ty Johnson ($4,100) is interesting. He still leads the team in rushing percentage and snaps played. The Bears have been also outright terrible versus the run. Over the past four weeks the Bears have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. I do not love the Detroit receivers in this spot with the Bears allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers over the past four weeks. However, T.J. Hockenson ($3,900) has a great matchup with the Bears allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends the last four weeks.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,100) is at his lowest price since his rookie year. Baker Mayfield has already come out and said they are going to force-feed the ball to Beckham, so at the price, I am buying that narrative for DFS Week 10. He should be an excellent option in GPPs. With the bad matchup, Beckham will be super low owned. The Bills’ defense also funnels a lot of receptions and targets to the receiver position.
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