Sony Open Preview

Golf is officially in full swing from a long holiday break and we have our first full field of 2020.  Hopefully, you have reviewed the valuable insight from Antonio and Patrick but there are a couple of trends worth emphasizing before we get into the course and the DFS picks:  (1) 15 of the last 21 Sony Open winners played at the Sentry Tournament of Champions event in Kapalua the week prior and (2) 13 of the last 14 Sony winners had experience playing in the Sony Open.  These trends are instructive, but they shouldn’t be counted on as gospel as there are plenty of players who weren’t here last week and/or who haven’t played this course that is in play in DFS and are in play as outright winners.

This course should produce low scoring like last week, but one thing that is very different from last week is that it is a shorter course.  Therefore, the bombers do not have a distinct advantage and a golfer’s second shot and his work around the Bermudagrass greens will be critical.  It is also a reasonably simple course, so while the trend has been that experience matters, it shouldn’t take long for the new players to get comfortable.   Finally, as mentioned in the associated Sony Open articles authored by Patrick Waters and Antonio D’Arcangelis, the wind may be a factor in this one which means your wind hitters should have a small edge.  

And finally, a couple of notes before we get into the DFS picks.  While I think that Justin Thomas is the best player in the world (yea, you heard me Brooks) I will be fading him in most GPP lineups.  He is fantastic but his DFS price and the betting price is just too high and back to back wins are so rare. Add to that his rollercoaster overtime win last week and I just don’t think he’s going to muster up the intensity to take this one down.  Speaking of fades, I will also be avoiding Patrick Reed this week. Reed gained nine strokes with his putter last week but wasn’t really great anywhere else. No one’s putter stays that hot. I’m not going to argue with you if you want these guys in your cash lineups, but for GPP I’m going to be fading these guys (along with Hideki who doesn’t ever seem to meet his potential and doesn’t have good course history here).

So let’s get into some of my favorite DFS values (some of which overlap with Antonio’s plays which should give members some added confidence):

9K and above

Colin Morikawa – Here I go already bucking a trend as Morikawa has never played this course.  But since turning pro last year he has also never missed a cut. Swing is super smooth and his game sets up well for most courses, including here in Honolulu.  He also happens to have family in Hawaii for a little added motivation and support. He hasn’t played a ton lately but he did play last week in the Sentry and finished 7th.  You’ll find my DFS teams fading the elite tier and firing on top tier money savers like Morikawa.  I don’t love his DFS price which is north of 10k but I’m hoping that keeps most lineups off of him and gives me a rare upper-tier leverage opportunity.

Matt Kuchar – Never a sexy pick but he won here last year and was good last week at the Sentry.  He is a very calculated golfer and his game sets up just fine for this course. We are looking for made cuts with the potential to win and Kuchar fits that bill quite well considering he is the reigning champ here.

Abraham Ancer – He didn’t play last week and his course history here isn’t great but his recent form is very solid as he was excellent at the President’s Cup and at Mayakoba.  He’s also a good wind player. Don’t forget this guy won the Australian Open and with a field that isn’t saturated with talent at the top, it’s a nice chance for Ancer to steal an outright win.   I’ll admit this is more of a gut play and I wouldn’t characterize it as safe relative to Morikawa and Kuchar.

8k and above

Corey Conners – Conners was 3^rd here last year, his recent form has been great and he’s a great ball striker.  He’s priced a little high for my liking but we’re looking for made cuts and outright win potential and he checks those boxes.  

Chez Reavie – Great ball striker, who again, thrives on the shorter courses.  He’s good on Bermuda. All boxes are checked here. He played last week and wasn’t great but that was a long course and he will be far more comfortable this week.

Brendon Todd – He didn’t have much success last week but the shorter course will benefit him just like Reavie.  He’s simply been way too hot to ignore as he won recently at Mayakoba and Bermuda and finished 4^th at the RSM.  His poor showing last week should keep ownership down a few percentage points.

7k and above

Sebastian Munoz – recent form has been great.  He’s been successful on Bermudagrass which was evidenced by his win at the Sanderson.  He was also 3^rd at the RSM.  As mentioned above, the wind could become an issue this weekend and he was just fine last week at the Sentry navigating in windy conditions.  

Brian Stuard – Finished 8^th here last year and 4^th the year before.  Much like Reavie and Todd, here we have a golfer that can really shine on the shorter courses.  Stuard is also Top 25 in strokes gained approach, which is a key stat here at Sony. I get a relative no-name here who has outstanding course history and has the game to shine on this course.  

Rory Sabbatini – The ‘other’ Rory actually had a good year in 2019 and he has decent course history here.  While I like Rory’s value, I must admit that he will only be peppered into a few lineups as I’m not entirely comfortable with how he tailed off toward the end of 2019.  With that said, I like his talent relative to the field at Sony Open and I’m willing to fire.

6k and above 

Tyler Duncan – Anyone down here is going to come with volatility but Duncan played at the Sentry last week and finished a very respectable 19^th.  Add to that he recently won at the RSM and you have a golfer that can certainly make the cut.  At this range, that’s what you’re looking for more than anything, but Duncan has recently proven he can win as well.

Graeme McDowell – played last week and finished a below-average 23rd.  With that said, his strokes gained approach stats from last week were impressive.  He also finished 23rd at Mayakoba and 16th at the CJ Cup so the form is solid enough to give McDowell a call up to your lineup if you need to dip down into this range.

Adam Long – He has no good course history to speak of at Sony Open but his recent form has been solid which included a 2^nd place finish at Mayakoba.  He also checks the ‘played last week at the Sentry’ box.

Sample Lineup:

Kuchar

Ancer

Long

Munoz

Stuard

Todd