The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock for the Genesis Invitational. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
Players priced between $12,000 and $10,000
Rory McIlroy $11,600 (M1) – Number one in most people’s models, so there is no surprise here. What is surprising is the price tag might be scaring off some ownership. Could possibly be the third-highest of the bunch for the Genesis Open.
Jon Rahm $11,200 (M19) – Rahm and Tiger might compete for the lowest owned of the big dogs and I don’t understand why. A ninth-place finish last year and he’s coming off three top 10s. I’ll take the ownership discount.
Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000
Hideki Matsuyama $9,300 (M7) – Matsuyama arrives at the Genesis Invitational with both recent form and good tournament history. He comes in the top 10 in both my scoring metric and course setup.
Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M5) – There will be no ownership disparity in the 9K range this week as they should all see roughly the same percentage. What Schauffele does bring to the table is good course history and top 10 rankings in Scoring, Course setup and the satellite stats.
Tony Finau $9,100 (M10) – Finau has been playing lights out lately with decent tournament history. Im assuming a balanced build will be the way most build and Finau should be right in the mix. Number one in recent form and a second-place showing in 2018, I’ll have plenty of Finau this week.
Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000
Jason Day $8,800 (M15) – Doesn’t have much of a history showing outside of a T64 a few years back but is coming in hot. Over 20 strokes gained total in his last two events alone. Back seems to be feeling fine, but people may want to see him one more time before going all in. Now’s the week to play him before his price and ownership skyrockets.
Marc Leishman $8,700 (M41) – Leishman will be a GPP play for me this week but I like what I see in both tournament history and recent form including a win at the Farmers. Coming in at sub 10% ownership he’s a nice pivot off of Rose.
Jordan Spieth $8,400 (M24) – I’m still a bit skeptical to play Spieth overall with him missing my core. With that said, his game is trending in the right direction and he has solid tournament history. If he’s projecting to be over 10 – 15 percent I may pivot but if he can come in under that mark, I’ll have enough shares.
Collin Morikawa $8,100 (M32) – He’s never played at the Genesis Invitational before. Historically first-timers tend to struggle, but I think Morikawa can buck that trend. I don’t know if he can win but with such a reduction in price, he doesn’t need to. **Edited** Morikawa is projected to be close to 30% owned, I don’t know if I can stomach that. I might be pivoting off of one of my favorite players.
Players priced between $7,900 and $7,400
Paul Casey $7,900 (M9) – Casey is coming into the Genesis Open with less than stellar recent form. With this said he’s still made three straight cuts. What Casey does carry coming in is great tournament history. Pair that with a top 10 rank in Strokes Gained stats and Casey, who I feel is underpriced severely, is an excellent pivot from Morikawa.
Ryan Moore $7,600 (M50) – Moore is never a sexy pick. Probably doesn’t have enough upside to win, but for cash, I don’t know if you can do any better. Moore is consistent especially here at the Genesis Invitational where he’s made four out of his last five starts including two top 10.
Max Homa $7,500 (M16) – Homa comes in with the 4th best mark in Strokes Gained in recent history. Three top 15 with a T14 last week at the AT&T Pro-Am. He got an $800 decrease in price and NO ONE is talking about him. Last year he finished T37 so he has some positive history here and I’ll continue to ride the hot hand.
Scottie Scheffler $7,400 (M83) – Unlike Homa, I feel Scheffler is more of a GPP only play. Should be below a 5% ownership threshold and I’m willing to see if he can find his early-season success here at the Riviera.
Players priced between $7,300 and $7,000
Joaquin Niemann $7,300 (M17) – Niemann is a play on stats move for me. He finished T44 last year at this tournament and has three straight cuts, though nothing too exciting. His stats through will fill up a sheet any day of the week. At 10% ownership, he’s worth a shot to see if his finish can catch up to his stats.
Russell Knox $7,200 (M21) – Knox burned so many last week, myself included, that no one is gonna play him this week. He’s never played this course and that’s a decent-sized red flag especially since he isn’t considered an elite talent. With that said, his run before the MC was incredible and I think he can get back on track.
Jason Kokrak $7,100 (M6) – Kokrak’s recent form leaves something to be desired but his history at the Genesis Invitational is wonderful. Five straight cuts including two Top 20 and a T2. If he was coming in hotter, he would be priced in the mid $8,000. Take the discount and ownership (minimal) and move on.
Erik Van Rooyen $7,000 (M18) – In his last four-stop on the PGA tour in 2019(three of which were majors) he gained over 20 strokes Tee to Green. I play him in GPP whenever I get the chance and you should too.
Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000 **With such soft pricing this week I’m hesitant to play anyone in the $6,000 range outside of MME tournaments.**
Charley Hoffman $6,700 (M33) – Hoffman missed the cut last year here and is coming off a cut at the AT&T Pro-Am but otherwise is pretty reliable. Three straight made cuts before last week with a top 10. Hoffman also had four straight cuts made here including a T4 in 2017.
Nick Watney $6,600 (M22) – What a dismantling of Watney on the back nine of the third round last week. His cut cost me so much but that won’t stop me from going right back to him this week. Two straight cuts at the Genesis Invitational and has gained strokes Tee to Green in eight straight contests.
Luke List $6,600 (M59) – List has solid course history and is coming off two straight cuts. Like the other two plays above him, you can do much worse in this price range.
